The desk note — Sunday, November 1, 2026

The note

Markets were closed, and Asian stock futures pointed lower on Sunday after Friday's tech sell-off, when the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5%, while oil held firm on tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The desk kept all ten holdings and the bench after comparing every name it follows, finding nothing clearly better for the money and leaving the portfolio unchanged until markets reopen. What changed is Meta's add level, up to $600 from $560 now that its share sales are counted, and AppLovin's report is Wednesday, Nov 4, not Nov 5 as we said.

What would change our mind: A second straight AppLovin quarter below its own guidance, or a cut to AI spending plans at Nvidia's biggest customers, would change the desk's mind.

What changed

No changes to the lineup.

By zone

Buy Zone

Four great companies trade at clear discounts to value in a fearful market; the desk adds to three on weakness and to Meta below $600.

• TSMC, Micron, ASML and Meta trade 22% to 41% below our value
• Adding: TSMC below $440 · Micron below $1,090 · ASML below $1,700 · Meta below $600
• Meta's add level now counts about 6% dilution from its share sales

Holding

Six holdings stay for their businesses, with no fresh money yet: AppLovin reports Wednesday, Alphabet is selling stock, and Reddit's users are falling.

• AppLovin reports Wednesday, Nov 4: another miss against its guide would point to real damage
• Nvidia reports Nov 17, and the desk waits for a price below $195
• Alphabet is selling stock, and Reddit's users are falling, so neither gets fresh money

Bench

• Buy below: DELL $420 · MSFT $490 · GEV $800 · LMT $460 · AMAT $350
• Dell is about 1% above its entry price, but it would add to AI hardware
• Nothing on the bench clearly beats a holding tonight

Name by name

AMAT · Bench

Applied Materials leads chip deposition and etch and is raising its stake in packaging maker Besi; it trades 26% below our value, but it would add to chip weight, so entry waits below $350.

AMAT's page →

AMZN · Holding

Amazon's cloud sales grew 39% to $46 billion and operating income reached $28.1 billion, but heavy spending put trailing free cash flow at a $42.4 billion outflow; it trades 23% below our value and the desk holds.

Add below $235 · review for sale near $305 · AMZN's page →

APP · Holding

AppLovin's ad engine stays highly profitable after a 34% fall since entry, with second-quarter revenue up 53%; its Nov 4 report must land inside its $2.06 billion to $2.09 billion guide, because another miss would point to real damage.

Add below $210 · review for sale near $414 · APP's page →

ASML · Buy Zone

ASML is the only maker of EUV lithography tools and guided fourth-quarter sales up 22% to 30%; China's share of sales is the risk, and it trades 22% below our value.

Add below $1,700 · review for sale near $2,020 · ASML's page →

AVGO · Holding

Broadcom's custom AI chips stay central, but it guarantees up to about $43 billion of one customer's AI-rack leases; the desk holds a smaller position and reviews for sale near $430.

Add below $300 · review for sale near $430 · AVGO's page →

DELL · Bench

Dell's AI-server backlog reached $95 billion, but cash flow lags revenue; at about $424, 20% below our value, the desk waits below $420 and weighs how much AI hardware the portfolio already holds.

DELL's page →

GEV · Bench

GE Vernova's orders nearly doubled to $29 billion and its backlog reached $197 billion, but at 11% below our value the desk waits below $800.

GEV's page →

GOOGL · Holding

Alphabet's cloud revenue doubled to $30.7 billion, but it sold $12.4 billion of stock with $27.6 billion more available; it trades 17% below our value and the desk holds without adding.

Add below $260 · review for sale near $340 · GOOGL's page →

LMT · Bench

Lockheed converts earnings to cash well and raised its cash-flow outlook, but it trades about 5% above our value; the desk waits below $460.

LMT's page →

META · Buy Zone

Meta's revenue grew 26% and it guided the fourth quarter to $73 billion to $76 billion; with about 6% dilution now counted from its share sales, the desk would add below $600, and it trades 24% below our value.

Add below $600 · review for sale near $780 · META's page →

MSFT · Bench

Microsoft's revenue grew 19% with $45.9 billion of operating income, while it funds its build-out with $25 billion of new notes; at 10% below our value there is no margin of safety, so the desk waits below $490.

MSFT's page →

MU · Buy Zone

Micron's memory upcycle continues, but contract-price gains are slowing and this is late in the cycle; it trades 41% below our value, and the desk would review it for sale well before reaching that value.

Add below $1,090 · review for sale near $1,327 · MU's page →

NVDA · Holding

NVIDIA fell with the sector as investors questioned AI spending, with nothing company-specific; it trades 36% below our value, and the desk waits for its Nov 17 report and a price below $195 to add.

Add below $195 · review for sale near $300 · NVDA's page →

RDDT · Holding

Reddit grew revenue 53% and made $363 million of free cash flow, but its US users fell 5% on the quarter and management warned of more; the desk holds a small position and adds only below $70.

Add below $70 · review for sale near $140 · RDDT's page →

TSM · Buy Zone

TSMC is still the bottleneck for leading-edge AI chips and fell with the sector on nothing company-specific; it trades 24% below our value.

Add below $440 · review for sale near $524 · TSM's page →