The desk note — Friday, October 30, 2026

The note

Stocks had their worst day since June on Friday as the sell-off in AI-linked names deepened: the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the Nasdaq 2.9% and Intel 28.6%. The desk kept all ten holdings and the bench, reviewed Reddit for sale after its 29% fall and kept a small position, because revenue is still growing about 40% and its logged-in users rose. What changed is the bar for Reddit: management warned daily users may fall as Google sends less traffic, so the desk would add only below $70.

What would change our mind: A fall in Reddit's logged-in users, or a cut to AI spending plans at Nvidia's biggest customers, would change the desk's mind.

What changed

No changes to the lineup.

By zone

Buy Zone

• TSMC, Micron, ASML and Meta trade 22% to 44% below our value
• Adding: TSMC below $440 · Micron below $1,090 · ASML below $1,700 · Meta below $560
• Meta's new share sales are under review before any fresh money goes in

Holding

• Reddit stays: revenue grows about 40%, but no fresh money above $70 while traffic falls
• Nvidia reports Nov 17 and AppLovin Nov 5; the desk waits for both
• Alphabet sells new stock, so the desk holds without adding

Bench

• Buy below: DELL $420 · MSFT $490 · GEV $800 · LMT $460 · AMAT $350
• Dell fell 11% with no company news and sits just above its entry price
• Applied Materials, 33% below our value, is the strongest bench case

Name by name

AMAT · Bench

Applied Materials leads chip deposition and etch and is raising its stake in packaging maker Besi; 33% below our value it is the strongest bench case, but it would add to chip weight, so entry waits below $350.

AMAT's page →

AMZN · Holding

Amazon's cloud sales grew 39% with a 39% margin and its operating cash rose, but $77 billion of quarterly spending sank the stock about 6% late; it trades 27% below our value and the desk holds.

Add below $235 · review for sale near $305 · Decision dated Oct 29, 2026 · AMZN's page →

APP · Holding

AppLovin's ad engine stays highly profitable after a 34% fall since entry, but its last quarter missed its own guidance; its Nov 5 report decides whether growth is stabilizing.

Add below $210 · review for sale near $414 · APP's page →

ASML · Buy Zone

ASML is the only maker of EUV lithography tools and guided fourth-quarter sales up 22% to 30%; China's share of sales is the risk, and it trades 27% below our value.

Add below $1,700 · review for sale near $2,134 · ASML's page →

AVGO · Holding

Broadcom's custom AI chips stay central, but it guarantees up to $43 billion of one customer's AI-rack leases; the desk holds a smaller position and reviews for sale near $430.

Add below $300 · review for sale near $430 · AVGO's page →

DELL · Bench

Dell's AI-server backlog reached $95 billion, but cash flow lags; it fell 11% with no company news found to about $424, 22% below our value, and the desk waits below $420.

DELL's page →

GEV · Bench

GE Vernova's orders nearly doubled to $29 billion and it raised its 2026 free cash flow outlook to $16 billion to $17 billion, but at 12% below our value the desk waits below $800.

GEV's page →

GOOGL · Holding

Alphabet's cloud revenue doubled to $30.7 billion, but it sold $12.4 billion of stock with $27.6 billion more available; it trades 19% below our value and the desk holds without adding.

Add below $260 · review for sale near $345 · GOOGL's page →

LMT · Bench

Lockheed converts earnings to cash well and raised its cash-flow outlook, but it trades about 5% above our value; the desk waits below $460.

LMT's page →

META · Buy Zone

Meta closed $12.5 billion of convertible preferred stock and sold 40 million shares for later delivery to fund its AI build-out; it trades 25% below our value, but the desk will not add until it has weighed the dilution.

Add below $560 · review for sale near $780 · META's page →

MSFT · Bench

Microsoft's revenue grew 19% with $45.9 billion of operating income, and it priced $25 billion of new notes; at 10% below our value there is no margin of safety, so the desk waits below $490.

MSFT's page →

MU · Buy Zone

Micron's memory upcycle continues, with SK Hynix seeing AI memory demand outpacing supply through 2030; contract-price gains are slowing, and it trades 44% below our value.

Add below $1,090 · review for sale near $1,327 · MU's page →

NVDA · Holding

NVIDIA fell 4.2% as the biggest drag on the S&P 500 while investors questioned AI spending; it trades 34% below our value, and the desk waits for its Nov 17 report and a price below $195 to add.

Add below $195 · review for sale near $300 · NVDA's page →

RDDT · Holding

Reddit grew revenue 53% and its logged-in users rose, but Google is sending less traffic and management warned daily users may fall in the fourth quarter; after a 29% drop the desk holds a small position and adds only below $70.

Add below $70 · review for sale near $140 · RDDT's page →

TSM · Buy Zone

TSMC is still the bottleneck for leading-edge AI chips and fell with the sector on nothing company-specific; it trades 22% below our value.

Add below $440 · review for sale near $524 · TSM's page →