Track Record
25 booked picks · 10 open · win rate 84.0% · average +13.3% per pick · best SNDK +47.4% · worst TTD -21.5% · last booked TLN +26.0%
Portfolio P/L +16.6%, era-weighted. Every booked pick is weighted by the slate size when the call was made: 5% for calls entered under the 20-slot book, 6.67% under the 15-slot book (from the Sep 23, 2026 reduction), 10% under the Ten (from Oct 7, 2026). Earlier results are not re-weighted. Booked picks only, no compounding, no costs. Sum of raw pick returns +332.6%. With the 10 open positions marked to market: portfolio +16.1%, win rate 74.3%, average 46 days held (32 booked only) — unrealized, moves daily. A model of the picks, not a live account.
Booked picks
| Closed | Ticker | Entry → Exit | Days | Result | Type | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | TLN | $296 → $373 | 39 | +26.0% | target-hit | Booked from the $296.11 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $373.11 the gain was about +26.0%, our best open return. The stock rose 12% in one session as power names rallied alongside Google's Constellation nuclear deal, with no new Talen filing, and that leaves 11.5% to a $416.01 G-Street Value, under our own 15% entry hurdle, with the model's analyst and factor views flagged divergent, $9.6B of debt against $232M of cash, and the $1.5B accelerated buyback already pulling future PJM capacity cash forward. Banking a 26% win on a one-session spike is discipline, not a verdict on nuclear power. Five-weekday display; the name can come back as a fresh position when the gap reopens. |
| Oct 6, 2026 | META | $661 → $739 | 84 | +11.8% | target-hit | Booked from the $661.04 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $738.88 the gain was about +11.8%. With the slate cut to the G-Street Ten, Meta is the name at our value with the nearest known tail: 6.5% to a $786.62 G-Street Value, the thinnest gap left on the book, Q2 free cash flow after finance leases of only $784M against $130–145B of capex guidance, with the Oct 28 print, our first look at 2027 spending, still ahead. A good business at our value with the capex question unanswered is what a ten-name book sells. It stays visible here for five weekdays and can re-enter as a fresh position if a pullback clears our 15% entry hurdle. |
| Oct 6, 2026 | VST | $141 → $161 | 59 | +14.2% | target-hit | Booked from the $140.59 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $160.50 the gain was about +14.2%, after a 10% jump on the Energy Department's conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B. That leaves 8.4% to a $173.91 G-Street Value, the lowest quality score on the slate, our factor value ($135.63) below the price, second-quarter revenue down 5.5% from a year earlier and $20.5B of debt. We are selling strength, not the idea: the AI build-out's power leg is the same trade one step removed, and the Ten carries it through the hyperscalers that buy the power. Five-weekday display; re-entry needs a fresh 15% gap. |
| Oct 6, 2026 | AMAT | $462 → $530 | 39 | +14.9% | target-hit | Booked from the $461.67 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $530.27 the gain was about +14.9%. Applied Materials sat against a $559.91 G-Street Value, the thinnest upside of any open position, on the richest multiple in our chip cluster (about 29x forward) and with its own factor value below the price. The Q4 guide ($10.25B revenue, $4.02 EPS) is intact and the Nov 12 print could lift the value, so this is a disciplined book near value, not a thesis break. It also trims a book where ten of fourteen positions ride AI capex. It stays visible here for five weekdays and can re-enter as a fresh position if the value case reopens and clears our 15% entry hurdle. |
| Sep 28, 2026 | ORCL | $126 → $137 | 70 | +8.5% | cut | We are exiting Oracle to reduce funding-dependent AI build-out exposure, not because a valuation target was reached. For the quarter ended August 31, 2026, the issuer reported revenue up 30% to $19.3 billion, remaining performance obligations of $664 billion, record operating cash flow of $23 billion, free cash flow of negative $5 billion after $28.5 billion of capital expenditures, and $20 billion of common stock sold through an at-the-market program; it guides fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings of $8.10 per share. The growth is real, but capital needs, debt and equity funding absorb the benefits for shareholders, and we prefer an empty slot to this exposure while rates and funding conditions stay tight. Using the September 25 close of $137.10, the position is about 8% above our $126.41 entry. Unconfirmed reports about Project Jupiter financing are not the basis for this decision. |
| Sep 23, 2026 | SKHY | $138 → $189 | 46 | +37.2% | target-hit | Exit to reduce overlapping memory-cycle exposure under the fifteen-position ceiling, retaining Micron as the selected memory holding. HBM leadership and further upside remain plausible. The US security premium has not been independently verified, so it is not asserted as a fact or the sole exit justification. Book the gain at the guarded reference mark recorded in the receipt. |
| Sep 23, 2026 | SIMO | $252 → $277 | 51 | +9.9% | cut | Exit to reduce the portfolio to at most fifteen positions. We prefer the broader equipment, memory and AI franchises retained in the book. Working-capital demands, purchase-order variability and overlapping semiconductor exposure make SIMO the marginal exclusion despite its growth and possible upside. Its August $1.15B convertible financing improves funding capacity; this is an opportunity-cost decision, not a claim of imminent liquidity distress. |
| Sep 23, 2026 | IREN | $33.62 → $47.05 | 66 | +39.9% | target-hit | Exit to reduce buildout, financing and execution exposure, preferring established platforms and suppliers. The issuer has committed GPU financing and customer prepayments, which materially support the buildout; contracted annualized revenue still depends on delivery and acceptance and is not recognized revenue. Further funding or dilution remains a risk, not a certainty. Book the gain at the guarded reference mark recorded in the receipt. |
| Sep 23, 2026 | COHR | $296 → $301 | 6 | +1.6% | cut | Exit to reduce AI-infrastructure concentration, preferring NVDA, AVGO and TSM in the remaining book. The optical ramp is credible, but fiscal-2026 operating cash flow less property, plant and equipment spending was about negative $1.02B. Cash conversion and forecast dependence weaken the relative case; this is a portfolio choice, not a claim that the optical thesis has failed. |
| Sep 23, 2026 | RKLB | $67.62 → $70.31 | 66 | +4.0% | cut | Exit under the fifteen-position ceiling. Launch execution is credible, but negative cash flow and dependence on future program milestones leave the valuation more uncertain than our retained established businesses. Neutron delivery and the economics of major programs remain important execution risks; successful progress could still create upside after our exit. |
| Sep 17, 2026 | AMD | $460 → $545 | 14 | +18.6% | target-hit | Up 6% to $545 on Nebius raising its cloud prices — 25% on AMD EPYC racks — exactly the demand tell we bought it for. That puts it 19% above our $460 entry in two weeks and 6% from our $576 value, so we book it: the ramp is intact, the fat pitch is gone. +19%, receipt on the ledger. |
| Sep 3, 2026 | MSFT | $385 → $510 | 51 | +32.5% | target-hit | Called take-profit at $510 — up 32% from our $385 entry, inside 10% of our value. Booked at the price of the call; it stays on the board this week so nobody misses it. |
| Aug 29, 2026 | LLY | $1,176 → $1,175 | 1 | -0.1% | cut | The robot re-added Lilly on Tuesday with barely 2% left to its own value — the math said this trade was done before it started. We stamped take-profit the same day and today we clear the slot. Flat exit, nothing booked, and the bench spot goes to a real setup. |
| Aug 28, 2026 | PAAS | $48.11 → $52.87 | 11 | +9.9% | cut | Exiting PAAS to reallocate capital into higher-conviction AI semiconductor equipment leader AMAT while keeping slate balanced. |
| Aug 26, 2026 | ANET | $189 → $202 | 3 | +7.2% | target-hit | Booked +7.2% in three days. We flagged take-profit at 4% from our value on Tuesday; today it traded through $198 and the discipline is the same in both directions — we sell at value. The robot bought well, the desk booked it. |
| Aug 23, 2026 | CCJ | $97.39 → $103 | 14 | +5.3% | cut | CCJ revenue contracted 7.2% YoY with lumpy deliveries and rich 176x PE, making room for higher-conviction AI infrastructure exposure in ANET. |
| Aug 17, 2026 | SNDK | $1,212 → $1,787 | 8 | +47.4% | target-hit | Booked +47% in seven days. Investor day re-rated the entire NAND story — multi-year fixed-price contracts, 80% gross margin targets — and price ran to within 2% of our $1,810 value. We sell at value; that's the whole point of having one. If the estimates keep climbing it can earn its way back. |
| Aug 12, 2026 | TDG | $1,250 → $1,235 | 0 | -1.1% | cut | DOJ acquisition block stalls the inorganic growth engine; exiting to reallocate into higher-conviction AI energy plays. |
| Aug 12, 2026 | CEG | $252 → $280 | 24 | +11.0% | target-hit | Booking it. Up 10% and only 8% left to our value — the thinnest on the slate — while CCJ and VST already carry the AI-power trade. We take the win and free the seat. |
| Aug 12, 2026 | NFLX | $73.02 → $74.79 | 28 | +2.4% | target-hit | Booking profits as price approaches fair value with streaming competition and engagement normalization capping near-term upside. |
| Aug 9, 2026 | BE | $243 → $219 | 26 | -9.9% | cut | Exiting BE as extreme valuation and high beta offer inferior risk/reward compared to baseload uranium fuel. |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CRM | $168 → $193 | 25 | +15.0% | target-hit | Exiting CRM as legacy seat cannibalization risks outweigh cloud growth, reallocating capital to higher-conviction AI infrastructure. |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NOW | $105 → $125 | 25 | +19.1% | target-hit | Booked +19.1% with barely 10% left to our value — the workflow king did its job; capital moves on. |
| Aug 8, 2026 | WPM | $104 → $134 | 19 | +28.8% | target-hit | Booked +28.8% as streaming gains reached our value — receipts, not vibes. |
| Aug 7, 2026 | TTD | $17.58 → $13.8 | 15 | -21.5% | cut | Top-line growth deceleration and weak forward guidance broke the hyper-growth thesis, prompting a clean exit. |
1 flat close (under ±0.05%, same-night rotations) is not counted as booked picks; the receipt stays on the permanent record.
The recent ledger
The latest 203 entries. Older entries are retained permanently; every booked pick is in the table above.
- Oct 11, 2026 · UBER — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $71.51
Retain Uber, but stop adding: acquisition funding and post-deal cash generation remain insufficiently clear. Historical cash yields include insurance float and do not establish an adequate margin for new purchases. - Oct 11, 2026 · NVDA — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $229
Retain NVIDIA, but stop adding: slower cash collection and contingent credit support require more margin at the reviewed price. Strong earnings do not remove those cash risks. - Oct 7, 2026 · GEV — Stage change — → Watch @ $997
Massive $176B power backlog benefits from datacenter electrification, but 39x forward multiple calls for a pullback. - Oct 7, 2026 · MSFT — Stage change — → Watch @ $530
$678B commercial RPO and Azure acceleration show elite enterprise moat, but heavy $36B quarterly capex demands a better entry. - Oct 7, 2026 · LMT — Stage change — → Watch @ $499
Record $230B defense backlog at a reasonable 15x forward P/E; waiting for margin relief on fixed-price contracts. - Oct 6, 2026 · TLN — Sold @ $373 +26.0% (target-hit)
Booked from the $296.11 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $373.11 the gain was about +26.0%, our best open return. The stock rose 12% in one session as power names rallied alongside Google's Constellation nuclear deal, with no new Talen filing, and that leaves 11.5% to a $416.01 G-Street Value, under our own 15% entry hurdle, with the model's analyst and factor views flagged divergent, $9.6B of debt against $232M of cash, and the $1.5B accelerated buyback already pulling future PJM capacity cash forward. Banking a 26% win on a one-session spike is discipline, not a verdict on nuclear power. Five-weekday display; the name can come back as a fresh position when the gap reopens. - Oct 6, 2026 · META — Sold @ $739 +11.8% (target-hit)
Booked from the $661.04 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $738.88 the gain was about +11.8%. With the slate cut to the G-Street Ten, Meta is the name at our value with the nearest known tail: 6.5% to a $786.62 G-Street Value, the thinnest gap left on the book, Q2 free cash flow after finance leases of only $784M against $130–145B of capex guidance, with the Oct 28 print, our first look at 2027 spending, still ahead. A good business at our value with the capex question unanswered is what a ten-name book sells. It stays visible here for five weekdays and can re-enter as a fresh position if a pullback clears our 15% entry hurdle. - Oct 6, 2026 · VST — Sold @ $161 +14.2% (target-hit)
Booked from the $140.59 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $160.50 the gain was about +14.2%, after a 10% jump on the Energy Department's conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B. That leaves 8.4% to a $173.91 G-Street Value, the lowest quality score on the slate, our factor value ($135.63) below the price, second-quarter revenue down 5.5% from a year earlier and $20.5B of debt. We are selling strength, not the idea: the AI build-out's power leg is the same trade one step removed, and the Ten carries it through the hyperscalers that buy the power. Five-weekday display; re-entry needs a fresh 15% gap. - Oct 6, 2026 · TLN — Stage change Hold → Take Profit @ $373
Booked from the $296.11 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $373.11 the gain was about +26.0%, our best open return. The stock rose 12% in one session as power names rallied alongside Google's Constellation nuclear deal, with no new Talen filing, and that leaves 11.5% to a $416.01 G-Street Value, under our own 15% entry hurdle, with the model's analyst and factor views flagged divergent, $9.6B of debt against $232M of cash, and the $1.5B accelerated buyback already pulling future PJM capacity cash forward. Banking a 26% win on a one-session spike is discipline, not a verdict on nuclear power. Five-weekday display; the name can come back as a fresh position when the gap reopens. - Oct 6, 2026 · VST — Stage change Hold → Take Profit @ $161
Booked from the $140.59 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $160.50 the gain was about +14.2%, after a 10% jump on the Energy Department's conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B. That leaves 8.4% to a $173.91 G-Street Value, the lowest quality score on the slate, our factor value ($135.63) below the price, second-quarter revenue down 5.5% from a year earlier and $20.5B of debt. We are selling strength, not the idea: the AI build-out's power leg is the same trade one step removed, and the Ten carries it through the hyperscalers that buy the power. Five-weekday display; re-entry needs a fresh 15% gap. - Oct 6, 2026 · META — Stage change Hold → Take Profit @ $739
Booked from the $661.04 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $738.88 the gain was about +11.8%. With the slate cut to the G-Street Ten, Meta is the name at our value with the nearest known tail: 6.5% to a $786.62 G-Street Value, the thinnest gap left on the book, Q2 free cash flow after finance leases of only $784M against $130–145B of capex guidance, with the Oct 28 print, our first look at 2027 spending, still ahead. A good business at our value with the capex question unanswered is what a ten-name book sells. It stays visible here for five weekdays and can re-enter as a fresh position if a pullback clears our 15% entry hurdle. - Oct 6, 2026 · AMAT — Sold @ $530 +14.9% (target-hit)
Booked from the $461.67 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $530.27 the gain was about +14.9%. Applied Materials sat against a $559.91 G-Street Value, the thinnest upside of any open position, on the richest multiple in our chip cluster (about 29x forward) and with its own factor value below the price. The Q4 guide ($10.25B revenue, $4.02 EPS) is intact and the Nov 12 print could lift the value, so this is a disciplined book near value, not a thesis break. It also trims a book where ten of fourteen positions ride AI capex. It stays visible here for five weekdays and can re-enter as a fresh position if the value case reopens and clears our 15% entry hurdle. - Oct 6, 2026 · AMAT — Stage change Hold → Take Profit @ $530
Booked from the $461.67 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $530.27 the gain was about +14.9%. Applied Materials sat against a $559.91 G-Street Value, the thinnest upside of any open position, on the richest multiple in our chip cluster (about 29x forward) and with its own factor value below the price. The Q4 guide ($10.25B revenue, $4.02 EPS) is intact and the Nov 12 print could lift the value, so this is a disciplined book near value, not a thesis break. It also trims a book where ten of fourteen positions ride AI capex. It stays visible here for five weekdays and can re-enter as a fresh position if the value case reopens and clears our 15% entry hurdle. - Oct 5, 2026 · AVGO — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $363
Hold, not add: results and $179.2B RPO are verified, but the Oct 4 promotion added no new positive evidence, and Broadcom's own 10-Q discloses that it has provided a customer-financing backstop while a reported up-to-$42B Anthropic lending facility is unverified. Reopen the Buy Zone below about $380, or once the financing structure is disclosed and Broadcom's own exposure is shown to be limited. Automated curation may revisit nightly; this desk call stands until then. - Oct 5, 2026 · AMZN — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $251
Hold, not add: the Oct 4 promotion leaned on a 20x P/E whose trailing earnings include a $53.4B pre-tax gain, mainly on its Anthropic stake, and on 'cash-generative' wording the filings do not support (TTM free cash flow about −$7.6B). AWS +37% and ~$496B of commitments keep the position; a clean FCF turn or a pullback would reopen the Buy Zone. Automated curation may revisit nightly; this desk call stands until then. - Oct 4, 2026 · AVGO — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $355
Custom AI XPUs surging with an eye-popping $179B backlog; trading at just 18.3x forward earnings makes this an urgent add. - Oct 4, 2026 · AMZN — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $252
AWS re-accelerated to 37% with a colossal $496B backlog; at 20x P/E, this cash-generative cloud titan is in prime buy territory. - Oct 1, 2026 · DELL — Stage change — → Watch @ $542
Massive $95B AI server backlog validates enterprise rack dominance, but after a 330% rally we want a pullback below $480 to buy. - Sep 30, 2026 · DELL — Added to universe @ $538
Exploding multi-billion dollar AI enterprise server backlogs and liquid-cooled rack scale turn this into an undeniable cash machine. - Sep 30, 2026 · LRCX — Dropped @ $329
Target hit, +20.1% since flagged as shares run through our valuation cap and exhaust near-term upside. - Sep 29, 2026 · NVDA — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $229
Using the September 28 close of $228.86, Nvidia is about 8% above our $211.80 entry. For the quarter ended July 26, 2026 the issuer reported revenue of $96.2 billion (up 18% from the prior quarter and 106% from a year ago), a 75% gross margin and non-GAAP EPS of $2.22, and on September 28 its board added $150 billion to the repurchase program ($235 billion remaining, expected to run through fiscal 2028). Aggregator consensus EPS is $9.31 for the fiscal year ending January 2027 (24.6x) and $15.68 for January 2028 (14.6x); the displayed forward multiple is the January-2028 year. The system G-Street Value of $350.35 rests on four analyst targets we have not opened; aggregator consensus (61 analysts) averages $327.70. We treat this as a buy-zone add up to about $240; above that we would describe it as a hold. Customers' capital spending and export policy remain the main risks. - Sep 29, 2026 · UBER — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $68.16
Using the September 28 close of $68.16, Uber is about 5% below our $72.08 entry. Second-quarter free cash flow was about $2.8 billion with adjusted EPS of $0.81 (issuer release); GAAP earnings include investment revaluation gains and are not the basis here. Aggregator consensus EPS is $3.36 for 2026 (20.3x) and $4.41 for 2027 (15.5x); the displayed forward multiple is the 2027 year. The system G-Street Value of $89.97 rests on four analyst targets we have not opened; aggregator consensus (50 analysts) averages $101. Risks: the EUR 41.50-per-share Delivery Hero tender ($14.8 billion equity value, acceptance period to November 5, completion expected in 2027) must be financed, and autonomous-vehicle competition could compress take rates. We treat this as a buy-zone add up to about $70; above that we would describe it as a hold. - Sep 28, 2026 · ORCL — Sold @ $137 +8.5% (cut)
We are exiting Oracle to reduce funding-dependent AI build-out exposure, not because a valuation target was reached. For the quarter ended August 31, 2026, the issuer reported revenue up 30% to $19.3 billion, remaining performance obligations of $664 billion, record operating cash flow of $23 billion, free cash flow of negative $5 billion after $28.5 billion of capital expenditures, and $20 billion of common stock sold through an at-the-market program; it guides fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings of $8.10 per share. The growth is real, but capital needs, debt and equity funding absorb the benefits for shareholders, and we prefer an empty slot to this exposure while rates and funding conditions stay tight. Using the September 25 close of $137.10, the position is about 8% above our $126.41 entry. Unconfirmed reports about Project Jupiter financing are not the basis for this decision. - Sep 28, 2026 · NVDA — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $225
Using the September 25 close of $225.07, Nvidia is about 6% above our $211.80 entry. For the quarter ended July 26, 2026, the issuer reported revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% from the prior quarter and 106% from a year ago, a 75% gross margin, and non-GAAP earnings of $2.22 per share. Our system G-Street Value of $350.35 depends on four analyst targets we have not opened, and the earnings period behind the displayed forward multiple is not documented, so we no longer present this as a buy-zone add. We keep the position; a new-purchase case needs a dated earnings bridge and verified targets. Export policy and customers' capital spending remain the main risks. - Sep 28, 2026 · ORCL — Stage change Hold → — @ $137
We are exiting Oracle to reduce funding-dependent AI build-out exposure, not because a valuation target was reached. For the quarter ended August 31, 2026, the issuer reported revenue up 30% to $19.3 billion, remaining performance obligations of $664 billion, record operating cash flow of $23 billion, free cash flow of negative $5 billion after $28.5 billion of capital expenditures, and $20 billion of common stock sold through an at-the-market program; it guides fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings of $8.10 per share. The growth is real, but capital needs, debt and equity funding absorb the benefits for shareholders, and we prefer an empty slot to this exposure while rates and funding conditions stay tight. Using the September 25 close of $137.10, the position is about 8% above our $126.41 entry. Unconfirmed reports about Project Jupiter financing are not the basis for this decision. - Sep 28, 2026 · AVGO — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $353
Using the September 25 close of $352.81, Broadcom is about 9% below our $389.11 entry. For the quarter ended August 2, 2026, the issuer reported revenue of $29.6 billion, up 86% from a year ago, free cash flow of $13.7 billion, and non-GAAP earnings of $3.32 per share, and guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $34.8 billion, of which about $21.7 billion is AI semiconductor revenue. Current cash generation supports retention. All five analyst targets behind our system G-Street Value of $478.23 are model-supplied and unverified, and trading below our entry is not itself evidence of value, so we no longer present this as a buy-zone add. Concentrated customer programs and their financing remain the main risks. - Sep 25, 2026 · AMD — Stage change Take Profit → — @ $631
Completed 5-day post-booking take-profit dwell period with no open position; display row cleared per policy. - Sep 25, 2026 · SHOP — Dropped @ $142
Target hit with a +21.6% return over 53 days as the stock traded through our fair value estimate. - Sep 24, 2026 · SHOP — Added by the desk @ $145
Founder's favorite: re-added to the watchlist so its research is tracked - Sep 24, 2026 · TSM — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $451
Using the September 24 reference close of $451.15, TSMC is about 7% above our $420.39 entry. Q2 revenue rose 36% in New Taiwan dollars, with a 55.6% net margin, and 2nm accounted for 3% of wafer revenue, so the position stays. The system G-Street Value of $566.67 rests on three June and July analyst targets whose sources are not verified, and the USD-ADR basis of those targets has not been checked, so we do not describe this as a discounted entry. Hold while those inputs are verified. - Sep 23, 2026 · SKHY — Sold @ $189 +37.2% (target-hit)
Exit to reduce overlapping memory-cycle exposure under the fifteen-position ceiling, retaining Micron as the selected memory holding. HBM leadership and further upside remain plausible. The US security premium has not been independently verified, so it is not asserted as a fact or the sole exit justification. Book the gain at the guarded reference mark recorded in the receipt. - Sep 23, 2026 · SIMO — Sold @ $277 +9.9% (cut)
Exit to reduce the portfolio to at most fifteen positions. We prefer the broader equipment, memory and AI franchises retained in the book. Working-capital demands, purchase-order variability and overlapping semiconductor exposure make SIMO the marginal exclusion despite its growth and possible upside. Its August $1.15B convertible financing improves funding capacity; this is an opportunity-cost decision, not a claim of imminent liquidity distress. - Sep 23, 2026 · IREN — Sold @ $47.05 +39.9% (target-hit)
Exit to reduce buildout, financing and execution exposure, preferring established platforms and suppliers. The issuer has committed GPU financing and customer prepayments, which materially support the buildout; contracted annualized revenue still depends on delivery and acceptance and is not recognized revenue. Further funding or dilution remains a risk, not a certainty. Book the gain at the guarded reference mark recorded in the receipt. - Sep 23, 2026 · COHR — Sold @ $301 +1.6% (cut)
Exit to reduce AI-infrastructure concentration, preferring NVDA, AVGO and TSM in the remaining book. The optical ramp is credible, but fiscal-2026 operating cash flow less property, plant and equipment spending was about negative $1.02B. Cash conversion and forecast dependence weaken the relative case; this is a portfolio choice, not a claim that the optical thesis has failed. - Sep 23, 2026 · RKLB — Sold @ $70.31 +4.0% (cut)
Exit under the fifteen-position ceiling. Launch execution is credible, but negative cash flow and dependence on future program milestones leave the valuation more uncertain than our retained established businesses. Neutron delivery and the economics of major programs remain important execution risks; successful progress could still create upside after our exit. - Sep 23, 2026 · SKHY — Stage change Hold → — @ $189
Exit to reduce overlapping memory-cycle exposure under the fifteen-position ceiling, retaining Micron as the selected memory holding. HBM leadership and further upside remain plausible. The US security premium has not been independently verified, so it is not asserted as a fact or the sole exit justification. Book the gain at the guarded reference mark recorded in the receipt. - Sep 23, 2026 · AMAT — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $474
Using the September 23 reference close of $474.38, Applied Materials is about 3% above our $461.67 entry. Its installed base and process expertise support retention. The system G-Street Value of $556 implies about 17% upside, with the factor leg near the market price and the remaining gap dependent on unverified analyst targets. The issuer guides Q4 revenue to $10.25B plus or minus $0.50B. Hold pending better valuation evidence and the next demand/export-policy updates. - Sep 23, 2026 · RDDT — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $152
Using the September 23 reference close of $151.98, Reddit is about 3% below our $156.19 entry. Strong monetization growth and balance-sheet flexibility support retention, but slower guided growth and traffic dependence warrant caution. The system G-Street Value of $191.56 is provisional: its factor leg is capped and the analyst inputs are not independently verified. Hold; reassess with new engagement and earnings evidence rather than waiting for a fixed calendar date. - Sep 23, 2026 · MU — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $1,072
Using the September 23 reference close of $1,071.88, Micron is about 9% above our $983.12 entry. Signed minimum-price agreements cover part of DRAM and NAND volume and improve visibility without eliminating cyclicality. The September 30 earnings report is a near-term event risk. The system G-Street Value of $1,398.28 uses unverified analyst inputs, including older targets. Hold rather than add before checking the earnings and contract assumptions. - Sep 23, 2026 · SIMO — Stage change Hold → — @ $277
Exit to reduce the portfolio to at most fifteen positions. We prefer the broader equipment, memory and AI franchises retained in the book. Working-capital demands, purchase-order variability and overlapping semiconductor exposure make SIMO the marginal exclusion despite its growth and possible upside. Its August $1.15B convertible financing improves funding capacity; this is an opportunity-cost decision, not a claim of imminent liquidity distress. - Sep 23, 2026 · RKLB — Stage change Hold → — @ $70.31
Exit under the fifteen-position ceiling. Launch execution is credible, but negative cash flow and dependence on future program milestones leave the valuation more uncertain than our retained established businesses. Neutron delivery and the economics of major programs remain important execution risks; successful progress could still create upside after our exit. - Sep 23, 2026 · APP — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $315
Using the September 23 reference close of $315.25, AppLovin is about 9% below our $346.80 entry. Issuer-reported second-quarter free cash flow of $863.3M supports retention, while advertiser growth and monetization need continued scrutiny. The system G-Street Value of $408.87 rests on unverified targets. Hold rather than add until operating evidence resolves the advertiser-growth concerns. - Sep 23, 2026 · TLN — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $300
Using the September 23 reference close of $300.34, Talen is about 1% above our $296.11 entry. Contracted demand and raised 2026 issuer guidance support retention, while leverage, power-market regulation and our overlapping exposure through Vistra limit enthusiasm for new purchases. The system G-Street Value of $438.09 is provisional because its underlying targets remain unverified. Hold; review contract delivery, cash flow and regulatory developments. - Sep 23, 2026 · ORCL — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $145
Using the September 23 reference close of $144.56, Oracle is about 14% above our $126.41 entry. Q1 FY27 revenue growth of 30% and $664B of remaining performance obligations support retention, while cash consumption, debt and contract conversion limit our confidence in new purchases. The system G-Street Value of $236.98 is provisional because the analyst inputs remain unverified. Hold; reassess on financing or contract developments. - Sep 23, 2026 · IREN — Stage change Hold → — @ $47.05
Exit to reduce buildout, financing and execution exposure, preferring established platforms and suppliers. The issuer has committed GPU financing and customer prepayments, which materially support the buildout; contracted annualized revenue still depends on delivery and acceptance and is not recognized revenue. Further funding or dilution remains a risk, not a certainty. Book the gain at the guarded reference mark recorded in the receipt. - Sep 23, 2026 · TDG — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $1,105
Using the September 23 reference close of $1,105.28, TransDigm is about 11% below our $1,235.48 entry. The aftermarket franchise and proposed $240M Extant asset acquisition support retention, while leverage and refinancing costs remain material risks. The system G-Street Value of $1,420.02 is provisional and its forward earnings period needs verification. Hold; review cash generation and financing terms, without treating the prior entry price as a reason to keep it. - Sep 23, 2026 · COHR — Stage change Buy Zone → — @ $301
Exit to reduce AI-infrastructure concentration, preferring NVDA, AVGO and TSM in the remaining book. The optical ramp is credible, but fiscal-2026 operating cash flow less property, plant and equipment spending was about negative $1.02B. Cash conversion and forecast dependence weaken the relative case; this is a portfolio choice, not a claim that the optical thesis has failed. - Sep 22, 2026 · SIMO — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $283
PCIe Gen5 controllers drove 127% YoY revenue growth; up 12% from entry, we let the position run on hold while watching working capital. - Sep 17, 2026 · COHR — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $296
Joins in AMD’s slot at $296, 33% under our $395 value at 21x forward. Coherent is the optics inside the AI rack — 1.6T transceivers ramping now, co-packaged optics next — with datacenter revenue up 59% last quarter to $1.6B on 34% total growth. It sits well off its summer high on transceiver price-competition fear; that is a margin question, not a demand one. Buy-zone from $296. - Sep 17, 2026 · AMD — Stage change Hold → Take Profit @ $545
Up 6% to $545 on Nebius raising its cloud prices — 25% on AMD EPYC racks — exactly the demand tell we bought it for. That puts it 19% above our $460 entry in two weeks and 6% from our $576 value, so we book it: the ramp is intact, the fat pitch is gone. +19%, receipt on the ledger. - Sep 17, 2026 · AMD — Sold @ $545 +18.6% (target-hit)
Up 6% to $545 on Nebius raising its cloud prices — 25% on AMD EPYC racks — exactly the demand tell we bought it for. That puts it 19% above our $460 entry in two weeks and 6% from our $576 value, so we book it: the ramp is intact, the fat pitch is gone. +19%, receipt on the ledger. - Sep 17, 2026 · GE — Added to universe @ $313
Unrivaled commercial aerospace engine installed base and high-margin aftermarket service contracts drive multi-decade free cash flow growth. - Sep 14, 2026 · LRCX — Added to universe @ $273
Leading semi cap equipment maker capitalizing on critical multi-patterning and high-aspect etch demand for next-gen AI chips. - Sep 14, 2026 · DELL — Dropped @ $534
Target hit as price fully values near-term AI server backlog, freeing a bench slot for higher upside. - Sep 11, 2026 · BA — Added by the desk @ $210
Added for the Defense Gainz Lab web - Sep 9, 2026 · AMD — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $521
Up 13% from our $460 entry in three sessions on the Citi-conference AI-demand reiteration and the Helios rack ramp; 9% left to our $568 value. Data center up 107% keeps the thesis, but buy-zone means buy today — at 33x forward this is a hold. - Sep 9, 2026 · META — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $654
Muse landed and the stock ripped 6.5% to $654 on the day — the pullback that made this a buy-zone is gone. Ads grow 28% and the agent finally gives the capex a consumer product, but with 15% left to our $752 value this is a hold, not a chase. - Sep 8, 2026 · SKHY — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $177
Up 28% from our $138 entry in three weeks with 15% left to our $204 value. The HBM lock-up is intact — 50%+ share, 2026 sold out, HBM4 sampling with TSMC — but buy-zone means buy today, and after a sprint like that this is a hold, not a chase. - Sep 7, 2026 · INTC — Added by the desk @ $95.8
Added for the AI Gainz Lab web (The Foundry) - Sep 7, 2026 · CHYM — Added by the desk @ $33.76
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · CRCL — Added by the desk @ $102
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · APO — Added by the desk @ $134
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · BX — Added by the desk @ $136
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · MA — Added by the desk @ $579
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · V — Added by the desk @ $375
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · COF — Added by the desk @ $220
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · AXP — Added by the desk @ $326
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · GS — Added by the desk @ $1,039
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · C — Added by the desk @ $138
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · WFC — Added by the desk @ $89.97
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · BAC — Added by the desk @ $62.68
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · JPM — Added by the desk @ $359
Added for the Banking Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · SPOT — Added by the desk @ $542
Added for the Apple Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · HNHPF — Added by the desk @ $16.25
Added for the Apple Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · GLW — Added by the desk @ $154
Added for the Apple Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · QCOM — Added by the desk @ $169
Added for the Apple Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · ARM — Added by the desk @ $252
Added for the Apple Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · AAPL — Added by the desk @ $320
Added for the Apple Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · CSCO — Added by the desk @ $109
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · RBRK — Added by the desk @ $93.67
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · OKTA — Added by the desk @ $171
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · NET — Added by the desk @ $279
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · ZS — Added by the desk @ $170
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · FTNT — Added by the desk @ $156
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · S — Added by the desk @ $19.88
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · PANW — Added by the desk @ $333
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · CRWD — Added by the desk @ $213
Added for the Cyber Gainz Lab web - Sep 7, 2026 · ANET — Added to universe @ $194
Dominant high-speed cloud networking switch provider capturing massive hyperscaler AI cluster buildouts. - Sep 7, 2026 · DELL — Added to universe @ $524
Surging enterprise AI server assembly demand and storage refresh cycles offer accelerating growth. - Sep 6, 2026 · ANET — Dropped @ $194
Target virtually hit with upside squeezed down to 2.2%, making room for higher-conviction growth plays. - Sep 3, 2026 · MSFT — Sold @ $510 +32.5% (target-hit)
Called take-profit at $510 — up 32% from our $385 entry, inside 10% of our value. Booked at the price of the call; it stays on the board this week so nobody misses it. - Sep 3, 2026 · AMD — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $460
MSFT hit our value and freed its slot — AMD takes it: 21% to our $558 value at 30x forward on 50% growth, MI400 and EPYC as the second source every hyperscaler wants. Buy-zone. - Sep 3, 2026 · MSFT — Stage change Hold → Take Profit @ $510
Up 32% from entry and hovering within 10% of fair value; locking in gains on this rally. - Aug 31, 2026 · RDDT — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $148
The S&P-inclusion pop we refused to chase gave it all back — $148 against our $185 value with the 61%-growth ad engine intact. 25% upside restored; back in the buy-zone. - Aug 29, 2026 · ANET — Added to universe @ $195
High-speed AI networking switch leader capturing dominant market share in hyperscaler datacenter backbones. - Aug 29, 2026 · TMO — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Thermo Fisher; the picks and shovels of drug development. Factory section. - Aug 29, 2026 · CVS — Added by the desk
Pharma map — CVS Health; Caremark, the formulary that dropped Zepbound. Toll Booth section. - Aug 29, 2026 · UNH — Added by the desk @ $415
Pharma map — UnitedHealth; the biggest payer, Optum PBM. Toll Booth section. - Aug 29, 2026 · HIMS — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Hims & Hers; telehealth GLP-1 channel, Novo's Wegovy distribution deal. Challengers section. - Aug 29, 2026 · VKTX — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Viking Therapeutics; VK2735 pure-play GLP-1 long shot. Challengers section. - Aug 29, 2026 · BNTX — Added by the desk
Pharma map — BioNTech; Comirnaty royalties funding an oncology pivot. mRNA Hangover section. - Aug 29, 2026 · MRNA — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Moderna; the mRNA hangover, RFK-era regulatory whiplash. mRNA Hangover section. - Aug 29, 2026 · AMGN — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Amgen; MariTide monthly obesity shot in Phase 3. Patent Cliff section. - Aug 29, 2026 · BMY — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Bristol Myers; the cliff poster child at a single-digit multiple. Patent Cliff section. - Aug 29, 2026 · JNJ — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Johnson & Johnson; diversified pharma + MedTech fortress. Patent Cliff section. - Aug 29, 2026 · ABBV — Added by the desk @ $246
Pharma map — AbbVie; the Humira-cliff survivor, Skyrizi/Rinvoq. Patent Cliff section. - Aug 29, 2026 · MRK — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Merck; Keytruda ~$31B with 2028 US exclusivity loss looming. Patent Cliff section. - Aug 29, 2026 · PFE — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Pfizer; steepest patent cliff in the industry, $10B Metsera obesity bet. Patent Cliff section. - Aug 29, 2026 · NVO — Added by the desk
Pharma map — Novo Nordisk; Ozempic/Wegovy inventor, the other half of the GLP-1 duopoly. GLP-1 Duopoly section. - Aug 29, 2026 · TLN — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $296
Raised FY26 guidance in August with street targets near $500, yet Pennsylvania grid-policy fear pins it at 9.6x forward earnings — the power behind the AI buildout, on sale. Buy-zone. - Aug 29, 2026 · LLY — Sold @ $1,175 -0.1% (cut)
The robot re-added Lilly on Tuesday with barely 2% left to its own value — the math said this trade was done before it started. We stamped take-profit the same day and today we clear the slot. Flat exit, nothing booked, and the bench spot goes to a real setup. - Aug 28, 2026 · PAAS — Sold @ $52.87 +9.9% (cut)
Exiting PAAS to reallocate capital into higher-conviction AI semiconductor equipment leader AMAT while keeping slate balanced. - Aug 28, 2026 · AMAT — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $462
Monopolistic wafer fab equipment positioning catches accelerating HBM and GAA transistor capex waves in prime buy-zone. - Aug 28, 2026 · AMAT — Added to universe @ $462
Monopoly-like position in semiconductor wafer fab equipment puts AMAT directly in the crosshairs of the global AI chip infrastructure expansion. - Aug 28, 2026 · ANET — Dropped @ $195
Target hit as valuation reaches fair value with upside fully tapped out, clearing a bench slot for higher growth. - Aug 27, 2026 · LLY — Stage change Buy Zone → Take Profit @ $1,176
Overriding the robot again: it added Lilly 3% below our value and called it a buy — its own reason admits the upside is nearly gone. Quality name, finished trade. Flagged to book; GLP-1 can earn a re-entry at a real discount. - Aug 27, 2026 · LLY — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $1,176
Added 25h ago on GLP-1 dominance; holding strong as upside approaches fair value. - Aug 26, 2026 · ANET — Sold @ $202 +7.2% (target-hit)
Booked +7.2% in three days. We flagged take-profit at 4% from our value on Tuesday; today it traded through $198 and the discipline is the same in both directions — we sell at value. The robot bought well, the desk booked it. - Aug 26, 2026 · LLY — Added to universe @ $1,189
Unstoppable GLP-1 weight-loss franchise drives historic revenue expansion and captures an open rotatable standard bench slot. - Aug 25, 2026 · ANET — Stage change Hold → Take Profit @ $191
Four percent from our value — the position the robot opened on Sunday has already done its job. Flagged to book it; the networking story can earn a re-entry at a real discount. - Aug 25, 2026 · RDDT — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $162
The S&P-inclusion pop is back — +6% today and now just 9% from our value. The 61%-growth thesis holds, but the discount is gone: holding, not adding. - Aug 24, 2026 · LVMUY — Added by the desk
Beauty map — LVMH ADR; Sephora, Fenty, Dior Beauty — both counter and channel. Prestige Guard section. - Aug 24, 2026 · LRLCY — Added by the desk
Beauty map — L'Oréal ADR; Maybelline/NYX own the mass shelf ELF is raiding. Mass Shelf War section. - Aug 24, 2026 · IFF — Added by the desk
Beauty map — fragrance and ingredients layer under the industry. Factory section. - Aug 24, 2026 · TGT — Added by the desk
Beauty map — ELF's original launchpad and marquee mass channel. Shelf section. - Aug 24, 2026 · ULTA — Added by the desk
Beauty map — the biggest US beauty-only retailer; channel and gatekeeper. Shelf section. - Aug 24, 2026 · COTY — Added by the desk
Beauty map — CoverGirl/Rimmel; the legacy mass house losing shelf to ELF. Mass Shelf War section. - Aug 24, 2026 · EL — Added by the desk
Beauty map — Estée Lauder, prestige turnaround; the house whose hero products get duped. Prestige Guard section. - Aug 24, 2026 · ELF — Added by the desk
Beauty map hub — the mass-cosmetics disruptor: +38% sales, 7th straight year of share gains, Rhode (~$1B, Sephora) plus the tariff margin story. - Aug 24, 2026 · ANET — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $189
Overriding the robot: it re-added Arista just 5% below our value and stamped it a buy. The networking story is real and the position stays — but Buy Zone means we would put fresh money in today, and at 5% to value we would not. Holding. - Aug 23, 2026 · CCJ — Sold @ $103 +5.3% (cut)
CCJ revenue contracted 7.2% YoY with lumpy deliveries and rich 176x PE, making room for higher-conviction AI infrastructure exposure in ANET. - Aug 23, 2026 · ANET — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $189
Added to lead enterprise AI Ethernet networking; strong hyperscaler cluster deployment earns immediate buy-zone status. - Aug 23, 2026 · ANET — Added to universe @ $189
Arista Networks dominates enterprise AI cluster networking, offering prime exposure to high-speed data center switching growth. - Aug 23, 2026 · LLY — Dropped @ $1,255
Target hit with upside compressed to just +2.2%, clearing a rotatable bench slot for higher-upside AI ideas. - Aug 23, 2026 · PAAS — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $53.07
Silver ripped and took us +10% in five days — with 19% left to our value the easy entry is gone. Same playbook as CCJ: hold the winner, stop adding. - Aug 21, 2026 · UBER — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $78.55
Up 9% since we re-flagged it, and the street just walked our blended value down to $94 on AV-spending plans. The ride continues but the fat pitch is gone — 20% to value is a hold, not a fresh buy. - Aug 19, 2026 · SIMO — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $243
The +18% spike we refused to chase fully reversed — down 11% from where we benched it, now below our entry with 34% to value while MonTitan ramps. This is the entry we were waiting for. - Aug 19, 2026 · MU — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $937
We benched it at 15% to value; the model just raised our value to $1,212 and the price fell below our entry — that is a 29% gap on an 80-score CORE name. The discount we would not chase came back to us. - Aug 19, 2026 · BLK — Added by the desk
The House map — $12T asset manager; iShares in every account. Old Money section. - Aug 19, 2026 · MS — Added by the desk
The House map — E*Trade owner; legacy retail brokerage. Old Money section. - Aug 19, 2026 · FLUT — Added by the desk
The House map — FanDuel parent; CME prediction-markets JV. Sportsbooks section. - Aug 19, 2026 · DKNG — Added by the desk @ $25.21
The House map — sportsbook duopoly half; bought Railbird exchange, Predictions live in 38 states. Sportsbooks section. Reactivated as map member. - Aug 19, 2026 · COIN — Added by the desk @ $162
The House map — regulated crypto exchange; HOOD's sharpest head-to-head. Crypto Ring section. Reactivated as map member. - Aug 19, 2026 · ICE — Added by the desk
The House map — NYSE owner; $2B Polymarket stake for the odds-as-data thesis. Exchange Lords section. - Aug 19, 2026 · CME — Added by the desk
The House map — biggest derivatives exchange; FanDuel Predicts JV. Exchange Lords section. - Aug 19, 2026 · CBOE — Added by the desk
The House map — the options exchange under the zero-DTE boom. Exchange Lords section. - Aug 19, 2026 · SOFI — Added by the desk @ $18.55
The House map — banking-side super-app rival. Trading War section. Reactivated as map member. - Aug 19, 2026 · BULL — Added by the desk
The House map — Webull, closest Robinhood clone. Options War section. - Aug 19, 2026 · ETOR — Added by the desk
The House map — social/copy trading, Nasdaq-listed 2025. Trading War section. - Aug 19, 2026 · IBKR — Added by the desk
The House map — pro options platform + ForecastEx event exchange. Options War section. - Aug 19, 2026 · SCHW — Added by the desk
The House map — $10T custody giant; the asset pool HOOD drains. Trading War section. - Aug 19, 2026 · HOOD — Added by the desk @ $94.38
The House map hub — retail super-app: brokerage, options, crypto, event contracts (~$147M/quarter and >50% of Kalshi volume). Reactivated as map center. - Aug 18, 2026 · SKHY — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $156
The 9% memory-sector flush just re-opened the door: the HBM leader at a 40% gap to our value with 256% revenue growth. We held it through the run — at this price it is a buy again. - Aug 17, 2026 · PWR — Added by the desk @ $680
Quanta Services — grid-construction pick-and-shovel: transmission, substations, datacenter electrical. Record $53B backlog, FY26 revenue guided ~$39.5B. Reactivated by human as energy-web member. - Aug 17, 2026 · PAAS — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $48.11
Silver at $60 and revenue up 38%, sold off 7% on a modest cost-and-tax miss. We booked WPM at value — this is how you buy the precious-metals exposure back cheaper. - Aug 17, 2026 · UBER — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $74.99
Flat since entry with the second-widest value gap on the slate at 43%, and $10B+ of free cash flow buying back stock while we wait. The robot benched it too early. - Aug 17, 2026 · AVGO — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $392
Friday's 6% AI-trade flush round-tripped it to our entry with 32% to value and earnings Sept 2. VMware CVE noise doesn't touch the custom-silicon thesis — this is a buy again. - Aug 17, 2026 · VST — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $146
The AI-power trade is real, but this is the weakest scorecard on the slate — shrinking revenue doesn't earn fresh-money status. The position stays; the buy badge doesn't. - Aug 17, 2026 · SIMO — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $273
+18% this week and now 19% to value — the easy entry we flagged is gone. Same playbook as CCJ: hold the winner, don't chase it. - Aug 17, 2026 · MU — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $1,012
Memory is ripping — +17% in a week ate most of our discount and left 15% to value. That's a hold, not a fresh buy; SanDisk's investor day is exactly why we're not selling either. - Aug 17, 2026 · GOOGL — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $344
Cloud's growing 82% and Berkshire is buying the dip with us — but at 15% to our value the fat pitch is gone. Holding, not adding, while the AI brain-drain headlines shake out. - Aug 17, 2026 · SNDK — Sold @ $1,787 +47.4% (target-hit)
Booked +47% in seven days. Investor day re-rated the entire NAND story — multi-year fixed-price contracts, 80% gross margin targets — and price ran to within 2% of our $1,810 value. We sell at value; that's the whole point of having one. If the estimates keep climbing it can earn its way back. - Aug 13, 2026 · DELL — Dropped @ $495
Target hit with +8.0% gain since flagged as price exceeded our $463.30 target valuation. - Aug 13, 2026 · CEG — Sold @ $279 0.0% (cut)
Unwinding the robot's same-day rebuy. We booked CEG at +11% this morning on purpose: 8% to value, and we already own the AI-power trade through CCJ and VST. The seat goes back to TransDigm. - Aug 13, 2026 · TDG — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $1,235
Reopening the position the robot cut over month-old news: the DOJ story was July's $960M Stellant walk-away, while the $2.2B aftermarket deal CLOSED and guidance went UP. 23% growth, 21% margins, zero AI-capex dependence. - Aug 13, 2026 · SNDK — Stage change Take Profit → Hold @ $1,344
Reversing the robot: our value is $1,774 and we're 32% below it. Take-profit means near value — a +11% three-day run is a hold, not a goodbye. - Aug 12, 2026 · TDG — Sold @ $1,235 -1.1% (cut)
DOJ acquisition block stalls the inorganic growth engine; exiting to reallocate into higher-conviction AI energy plays. - Aug 12, 2026 · CEG — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $279
Largest US nuclear operator directly monetizing hyperscaler AI baseload demand via long-term power contracts. - Aug 12, 2026 · SNDK — Stage change Buy Zone → Take Profit @ $1,344
Surged over 10% since entry on enterprise SSD demand; trading near fair value as NAND cycle matures. - Aug 12, 2026 · SKHY — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $154
Dominant ~60% market share in HBM memory feeds Nvidia's Blackwell cycle; entry gain intact. - Aug 12, 2026 · HOOD — Dropped @ $94.91
Stagnant price action and an exhausted upside target make room for a higher-conviction growth engine. - Aug 12, 2026 · TDG — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $1,250
Aerospace aftermarket toll booth: 23% growth, 21% margins, raised guidance and a $2.2B bolt-on — and it doesn't live or die on AI capex like most of this slate. Our $1,478 value sits below the street's $1,537. - Aug 12, 2026 · CEG — Sold @ $280 +11.0% (target-hit)
Booking it. Up 10% and only 8% left to our value — the thinnest on the slate — while CCJ and VST already carry the AI-power trade. We take the win and free the seat. - Aug 12, 2026 · NFLX — Sold @ $74.79 +2.4% (target-hit)
Booking profits as price approaches fair value with streaming competition and engagement normalization capping near-term upside. - Aug 12, 2026 · RDDT — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $156
61% revenue growth and high-margin ad licensing warrant fresh entry; opening in buy-zone. - Aug 12, 2026 · TLN — Added to universe @ $358
Nuclear co-location leader supplying direct baseload power to hyperscaler AI datacenters with massive pipeline potential. - Aug 12, 2026 · ANET — Dropped @ $198
Target hit as price breached G-Street valuation target with negative remaining upside. - Aug 11, 2026 · NFLX — Stage change Hold → Take Profit @ $74.79
Five percent from our value — the juice is squeezed. First official Take Profit on the ledger: we book strength, we don't marry it. - Aug 11, 2026 · ORCL — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $145
Back in the Buy Zone and staying there while the gap to our $246 value is this wide — a 15% run doesn't close a 69% gap. The $638B backlog is the story, not the tape. - Aug 11, 2026 · ORCL — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $145
Surged 15% from entry on $638B backlog expansion; transition from buy-zone to hold to let gains run. - Aug 10, 2026 · CCJ — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $97.31
Up 8.5% in a week since joining — at our $112 blended value the easy entry is gone. Holding the uranium supply-deficit thesis, not chasing the pop. - Aug 10, 2026 · ORCL — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $151
Our blended value says $299 against a $151 price — even after a 19.5% run, the street's backlog math leaves near-2x. Back in the Buy Zone. - Aug 10, 2026 · UBER — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $78.03
Dominant scale generating $10B+ free cash flow keeps our position in hold as share buybacks compound. - Aug 10, 2026 · AVGO — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $422
Up 8.6% from entry on custom AI chip momentum, shifting from buy-zone to hold to let gains run. - Aug 10, 2026 · DELL — Added to universe @ $458
Surging enterprise orders for liquid-cooled AI servers provide immediate revenue growth and margin expansion. - Aug 9, 2026 · BE — Sold @ $219 -9.9% (cut)
Exiting BE as extreme valuation and high beta offer inferior risk/reward compared to baseload uranium fuel. - Aug 9, 2026 · SNDK — Stage change Watch → Buy Zone @ $1,212
Explosive 371% revenue growth trading at a dirt-cheap 4.7x forward P/E in the buy-zone. - Aug 9, 2026 · CCJ — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $97.39
Structural uranium supply deficit and utility restocking make this the premier energy fuel pick. - Aug 8, 2026 · CRM — Sold @ $193 +15.0% (target-hit)
Exiting CRM as legacy seat cannibalization risks outweigh cloud growth, reallocating capital to higher-conviction AI infrastructure. - Aug 8, 2026 · VST — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $141
Nuclear and gas generation portfolio perfectly positioned to supply AI power scarcity at compelling value. - Aug 8, 2026 · LLY — Added to universe @ $1,186
Unprecedented demand for GLP-1 weight-loss blockbusters Zepbound and Mounjaro gives Eli Lilly an unmatched long-term growth runway. - Aug 8, 2026 · SNDK — Stage change — → Watch @ $1,212
NAND at 5x forward with 372% growth — we want it, but not after a 411% YTD run; let it breathe to ~$1,090. - Aug 8, 2026 · SKHY — Stage change — → Buy Zone @ $138
The HBM leader at 4x forward earnings, down 18% YTD while Micron tripled — the cheapest ticket to the memory supercycle. - Aug 8, 2026 · CRM — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $193
+15% off the pessimism lows; at 13% to value this is a hold, not a fresh buy. - Aug 8, 2026 · AMZN — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $274
AWS re-acceleration is real, but +11% since entry ate the easy part — holding, not chasing. - Aug 8, 2026 · NFLX — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $74.14
Thesis intact but ~15% to value after the drift up — fresh money has better homes tonight. - Aug 8, 2026 · SIMO — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $256
Flat since entry with 35% to value while MonTitan ramps at five tier-one clouds — still a buy right here. - Aug 8, 2026 · BE — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $219
Record Q2 confirmed the grid-bypass thesis and the stock got 10% cheaper anyway — a gift, not a warning. - Aug 8, 2026 · META — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $592
Down 10% on capex panic while ads grow 28% — Meta has made this movie before; we buy below our own entry. - Aug 8, 2026 · TSM — Stage change Hold → Buy Zone @ $420
Opened flat with 28% to our value — the 2nm monopoly at entry prices is a buy, not a hold. - Aug 8, 2026 · NOW — Sold @ $125 +19.1% (target-hit)
Booked +19.1% with barely 10% left to our value — the workflow king did its job; capital moves on. - Aug 8, 2026 · WPM — Sold @ $134 +28.8% (target-hit)
Booked +28.8% as streaming gains reached our value — receipts, not vibes. - Aug 7, 2026 · TTD — Sold @ $13.8 -21.5% (cut)
Top-line growth deceleration and weak forward guidance broke the hyper-growth thesis, prompting a clean exit.