The desk note — Monday, November 2, 2026
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The note
Tech and AI shares slid again on Monday, with the Nasdaq down 1.1% and the S&P 500 down 0.5% after giving up an early gain, while Brent crude fell 7.6%. The desk kept all ten holdings and the bench, finding nothing clearly better for the money, and kept its add levels with fear running high. What changed: Meta will give shareholders one new non-voting share for each share they own after January 19, which lets Mark Zuckerberg sell up to half his stake without losing control, and Alphabet borrowed 6 billion euros in bonds rather than selling more stock.
What would change our mind: An AppLovin quarter below its own guidance on Wednesday, or a cut to AI spending plans at Nvidia's biggest customers, would change the desk's mind.
What changed
No changes to the lineup.
By zone
Buy Zone
Four great companies trade at clear discounts to value in a fearful market; the desk adds on weakness below its levels, ASML first.
- TSMC, Micron, ASML and Meta trade 24% to 45% below our value
- Adding: TSMC below $440 · Micron below $1,090 · ASML below $1,700 · Meta below $600
- Meta's new non-voting shares change no one's stake but let its founder sell more freely
Holding
Six holdings stay for their businesses, with no fresh money yet: AppLovin reports Wednesday, Alphabet is selling stock, and Reddit's users are falling.
- AppLovin reports Wednesday, Nov 4: another miss against its guide would point to real damage
- Nvidia reports Nov 17, and the desk waits for a price below $195
- Alphabet is selling stock, and Reddit's users are falling, so neither gets fresh money
Bench
- Buy below: DELL $350 · MSFT $480 · GEV $800 · LMT $460 · AMAT $350
- Dell fell 7% Monday, but it would add to AI hardware the portfolio already holds
- Nothing on the bench clearly beats a holding tonight
Name by name
AMAT · Bench
Applied Materials leads chip deposition and etch and is raising its stake in packaging maker Besi; it reports around Nov 12, and it would add to chip weight, so entry waits below $350.
AMZN · Holding
Amazon's cloud sales grew 39% to $46 billion and operating income reached $28.1 billion, but heavy spending put trailing free cash flow at a $42.4 billion outflow; it trades 21% below our value and the desk holds.
Add below $235 · review for sale near $305 · AMZN's page →
APP · Holding
AppLovin's ad engine stays highly profitable after a 34% fall since entry, with second-quarter revenue up 53%; its Nov 4 report must land inside its $2.06 billion to $2.09 billion guide, because another miss would point to real damage.
Add below $210 · review for sale near $414 · APP's page →
ASML · Buy Zone
ASML is the only maker of EUV lithography tools and guided fourth-quarter sales up 22% to 30%; China's share of sales is the risk, and it trades 24% below our value, under the desk's add level.
Add below $1,700 · review for sale near $2,020 · ASML's page →
AVGO · Holding
Broadcom's custom AI chips stay central, but it guarantees up to about $43 billion of one customer's AI-rack leases; the desk holds a smaller position and reviews for sale near $430.
Add below $300 · review for sale near $430 · AVGO's page →
DELL · Bench
Dell's AI-server backlog reached $95 billion, but cash flow lags revenue; after Monday's 7% fall it trades 28% below our value, and the desk waits below $350 and weighs how much AI hardware the portfolio already holds.
GEV · Bench
GE Vernova's orders nearly doubled to $29 billion and its backlog reached $197 billion, but at 13% below our value the desk waits below $800.
GOOGL · Holding
Alphabet's cloud revenue doubled to $30.7 billion and it is now borrowing in bonds, but it sold $12.4 billion of stock with $27.6 billion more available; it trades 19% below our value and the desk holds without adding.
Add below $260 · review for sale near $340 · GOOGL's page →
LMT · Bench
Lockheed converts earnings to cash well and raised its cash-flow outlook, but it trades about 6% above our value; the desk waits below $460.
META · Buy Zone
Meta's revenue grew 26% and its new non-voting shares, paid one for one after January 19, change no one's economic stake but let its founder sell more freely; the desk would add below $600, and it trades 26% below our value.
Add below $600 · review for sale near $780 · META's page →
MSFT · Bench
Microsoft's revenue grew 19% while it funds its build-out with $25 billion of new notes; at 12% below our value there is no margin of safety, so the desk waits below $480.
MU · Buy Zone
Micron's memory upcycle continues, but it fell 6% on Monday and this is late in the cycle; it trades 45% below our value, and the desk would review it for sale well before reaching that value.
Add below $1,090 · review for sale near $1,327 · MU's page →
NVDA · Holding
NVIDIA fell with the sector as investors questioned AI spending, with nothing company-specific; it trades 36% below our value, and the desk waits for its Nov 17 report and a price below $195 to add.
Add below $195 · review for sale near $300 · NVDA's page →
RDDT · Holding
Reddit grew revenue 53% and generated $364 million of operating cash, but its US users fell 5% on the quarter and management warned of more; the desk holds a small position and adds only below $70.
Add below $70 · review for sale near $140 · RDDT's page →
TSM · Buy Zone
TSMC is still the bottleneck for leading-edge AI chips and slipped with the sector on no company news; it trades 25% below our value.
Add below $440 · review for sale near $524 · TSM's page →