GainStreet — the G-Street Portfolio, the Daily Brief, and the receipts
The G-Street Portfolio
Weights set the night of Monday, November 2, 2026: 10 positions and 3.5% cash, held as whole shares in a $100,000 shadow portfolio.
| Stock | Weight | Shares | Change tonight | Today | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 14% | 65 | unchanged | -1.3% | $202 |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | 14% | 33 | −0.5 points | -1.8% | $399 |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | 12% | 13 | unchanged | -5.8% | $834 |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | 11.5% | 7 | +1.5 points | -2.5% | $1,526 |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | 11% | 17 | unchanged | -1.3% | $607 |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | 10% | 38 | +0.5 points | +2.2% | $246 |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | 8.5% | 25 | unchanged | -1.2% | $322 |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | 7% | 24 | unchanged | -0.3% | $279 |
| APP AppLovin Corporation | 5% | 21 | unchanged | +0.2% | $229 |
| RDDT Reddit, Inc. | 3.5% | 36 | unchanged | -0.8% | $90.97 |
| Cash | 3.5% | $3,012.37 | −1.5 points | — | — |
Trades on Monday, November 2, 2026: bought 1 ASML at $1,538.00.
The shadow portfolio is worth $93,959 (it started at $100,000 on Monday, October 26, 2026): -6.0% since launch, against -1.7% for the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested. Track record →
A shadow portfolio: simulated trades in whole shares at the latest market price, after-hours included, starting from $100,000. No real money; before costs and taxes; not financial advice.
Latest from The Street
The market Tech and AI shares slid again on Monday, with the Nasdaq down 1.1% and the S&P 500 down 0.5% after giving up an early gain, while Brent crude fell 7.6%.
The call The desk kept all ten holdings and the bench, finding nothing clearly better for the money, and kept its add levels with fear running high.
What changed: Meta will give shareholders one new non-voting share for each share they own after January 19, which lets Mark Zuckerberg sell up to half his stake without losing control, and Alphabet borrowed 6 billion euros in bonds rather than selling more stock.
What would change our mind: An AppLovin quarter below its own guidance on Wednesday, or a cut to AI spending plans at Nvidia's biggest customers, would change the desk's mind.
Buy Zone (4)
TSM · <$440, MU · <$1,090, ASML · <$1,700, META · <$600
- TSMC, Micron, ASML and Meta trade 24% to 45% below our value
- Adding: TSMC below $440 · Micron below $1,090 · ASML below $1,700 · Meta below $600
- Meta's new non-voting shares change no one's stake but let its founder sell more freely
Holding (6)
NVDA · $195–$300, AVGO · $300–$430, AMZN · $235–$305, GOOGL · $260–$340, APP · $210–$414, RDDT · $70–$140
- AppLovin reports Wednesday, Nov 4: another miss against its guide would point to real damage
- Nvidia reports Nov 17, and the desk waits for a price below $195
- Alphabet is selling stock, and Reddit's users are falling, so neither gets fresh money
Range: add below the first price, review for sale near the second (our G-Street Value unless the desk set its own level).
Bench (5)
DELL · >$350, MSFT · >$480, GEV · >$800, LMT · >$460, AMAT · >$350
- Buy below: DELL $350 · MSFT $480 · GEV $800 · LMT $460 · AMAT $350
- Dell fell 7% Monday, but it would add to AI hardware the portfolio already holds
- Nothing on the bench clearly beats a holding tonight
Evening brief, Monday, November 2, 2026: Crude collapsed into a cyclical rotation, and Oracle decided twenty billion in dilution was just what tech needed
Published
Crude Plunge Fuels Cyclical Rotation
Brent crude dropped more than 7% on Middle East peace hopes, powering a cyclical rally that lifted the Dow 0.4% while the S&P 500 slid 0.5% and the Nasdaq sank 1.1%. The steep divergence highlights heavy rotation out of high-multiple tech into defensives as macro anxiety pushed sentiment down to 23 into Extreme Fear.
Sources: www.postregister.com
Marvell Deal Sinks Lumentum 18.6%
Lumentum collapsed 18.59% and Marvell dropped 12.72% after agreeing to an all-stock merger valuing LITE at an implied enterprise value of $115 billion at a fixed 4.5 exchange ratio. While combining optical and electrical connectivity expands their AI infrastructure footprint, investors balked at Marvell's 33% equity dilution and integration risks tied to an extended close through 2028.
Sources: investor.marvell.com
Oracle Tumbles 8.8% on $20B Raise
Oracle fell 8.76% after filing plans with the SEC to raise $20 billion, split evenly between common stock and senior notes, to fund data center capacity. The financing validates aggressive cloud infrastructure demand, but the immediate dilution and mounting leverage add acute execution pressure on whether these capital expenditures will translate into sustainable free cash flow.
Sources: www.thestreet.com · qz.com
Palantir Dips 3.1%, Beats Post-Close
Palantir slipped 3.13% during regular trading before reporting third-quarter revenue surged 96% to $2.31 billion, with U.S. commercial sales jumping 148% to surpass government revenue for the first time. The print confirms explosive enterprise AI adoption, yet muted after-hours trading demonstrates that rich valuation multiples leave virtually zero margin for error when total contract value growth cools.
Sources: www.morningstar.com
Midterms and AMD Test Extreme Fear
Wall Street heads into Tuesday's pivotal U.S. midterm elections with the CNN Fear & Greed Index pinned at 23, while digesting after-hours prints from Apple and Palantir. Watch whether AMD's critical earnings report tomorrow can stabilize semiconductor sentiment, or if policy uncertainty and ongoing capex scrutiny will trigger another leg down in high-beta tech.
Sources: www.postregister.com
Market posture: Defensive posture: Extreme Fear (23) and tech de-risking warrant building cash and rotating selectively into resilient value compounders.
Stocks in this edition: ORCL, QQQ
Upcoming earnings
Read today's full edition with the day's moves → · Archive
The holdings and the bench
The stocks we own, each with its weight, plus five we're watching. How the weights are set: methodology. Closed positions are on the Track Record.
Buy Zone (4)
- TSM (weight 14% (−0.5 points tonight) · price $399 · target $524 · target vs price 31.5% · G-Street Value $539 · -5.2% since entry (112 days))
Entered Jul 14 @ $420.39
In buy-zone at 17.4x forward P/E with +34% to our G-Street Value, backed by 50.9% revenue growth and a 51.1% net margin. - MU (weight 12% · price $834 · target $1,327 · target vs price 59.2% · G-Street Value $1,549 · -15.2% since entry (112 days))
Entered Jul 14 @ $983.12
In buy-zone at 4.0x forward P/E with +84% to our G-Street Value, revenue growth of 379.3%, and $43.4B in cash liquidity. - ASML (weight 11.5% (+1.5 points tonight) · price $1,526 · target $2,020 · target vs price 32.4% · G-Street Value $2,024 · -4.1% since entry (7 days))
Entered Oct 27 @ $1,590.90
Rebuilt from scratch under our investment principles: the only maker of EUV machines, with net cash and room to run. - META (weight 11% · price $607 · target $780 · target vs price 28.6% · G-Street Value $819 · -3.8% since entry (7 days))
Entered Oct 27 @ $630.56
Rebuilt from scratch under our investment principles: the largest ad network, at a fair price for its earnings.
Holding (6)
- NVDA (weight 14% · price $202 · target $300 · target vs price 48.5% · G-Street Value $319 · -4.6% since entry (112 days))
Entered Jul 14 @ $211.80
Holding as revenue grew 105.9% year over year with a 63.7% net margin and 12.9x forward P/E, but free cash flow softened to $21.4B. - AVGO (weight 8.5% · price $322 · target $430 · target vs price 33.4% · G-Street Value $478 · -17.2% since entry (112 days))
Entered Jul 14 @ $389.11
Holding as gross margin is 75.5% with $179.2B in RPO, but an Oct 27 lease backstop carries up to $43B in undiscounted liability. - AMZN (weight 10% (+0.5 points tonight) · price $246 · target $305 · target vs price 24.2% · G-Street Value $312 · -0.8% since entry (112 days))
Entered Jul 14 @ $247.49
Holding as Q3 AWS revenue grew 39% to $46.0B, though Q3 cash capex reached $77.3B and pushed trailing free cash flow to -$42.4B. - GOOGL (weight 7% · price $279 · target $340 · target vs price 21.9% · G-Street Value $347 · -22.4% since entry (112 days))
Entered Jul 14 @ $359.51
Holding as Cloud grew 103% to $30.7B in Q3, but ATM share sales reached $12.4B and Q3 capital expenditures surged to $51.36B. - APP (weight 5% · price $229 · target $414 · target vs price 80.9% · G-Street Value $434 · -34.0% since entry (88 days))
Entered Aug 7 @ $346.80
Holding ahead of Nov 5 Q3 earnings with 88.5% gross margin and 11.4x forward P/E, as sequential revenue growth slowed to 4.4%. - RDDT (weight 3.5% · price $90.97 · target $140 · target vs price 53.9% · G-Street Value $136 · -41.8% since entry (83 days))
Entered Aug 12 @ $156.19
Reddit moves from Buy Zone to Holding: revenue grew 53%, but its US daily users fell for a second straight quarter, so the desk stops adding until they recover.
The bench (5)
Names we're watching but don't own.
- DELL (price $393 · G-Street Value $543 · -27.5% since benched (33 days))
Benched Oct 1 @ $541.74
Watching as revenue grew 57.7% with $132B in RPO, but gross margin of 19.9% reflects heavy pass-through server costs. - MSFT (price $507 · G-Street Value $579 · -4.3% since benched (27 days))
Benched Oct 7 @ $529.76
Watching as commercial RPO reached $677B with a 41.2% net margin, but quarterly capex rose to $39.4B with +14% to our G-Street Value. - GEV (price $862 · G-Street Value $991 · -13.5% since benched (27 days))
Benched Oct 7 @ $997.09
Watching as Q3 orders surged 96% to $29B with a $197B backlog, but shares trade at a 33.3x forward P/E with +14% to our G-Street Value.
pushing for a spot: Third-quarter 2026 orders surged 96% organically to $29B, lifting backlog to $197B with $5.4B in quarterly free cash flow and a 23.6% net profit margin. - LMT (price $643 · G-Street Value $609 · +28.8% since benched (27 days))
Benched Oct 7 @ $499.22
Watching as backlog reached $292.0B with a 19.1x forward P/E, but shares trade at a 5.1% premium to our G-Street Value. - AMAT (price $375 · G-Street Value $571 · -5.4% since benched (7 days))
Benched Oct 27 @ $395.93
Watching as FQ3 revenue reached $9.12B with a 49.4% gross margin, but shares trade at a 20.2x forward P/E above our $350.00 entry level.
pushing for a spot: Fiscal third-quarter revenue reached $9.12B, up 25% year over year, with a 49.4% gross margin, $9.23B in cash, and +51% to our G-Street Value at a 20.2x forward P/E.
Top plays
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor trades at a forward P/E of 17.4x with +34% to our G-Street Value against year-over-year revenue growth of 50.9%. Process leadership in sub-3nm manufacturing and advanced packaging sustains a 51.1% net profit margin across leading accelerator customers. This valuation multiple sits at a discount to key fabless designers despite foundry dominance.
Watch: Watch for leading-edge node capacity utilization and overseas fab capital expenditures pressuring gross margins.
MU
Micron trades at 4.0x forward earnings with +84% to our G-Street Value after revenue expanded 379.3% year over year to $133.2B. High-bandwidth memory commitments for AI data center clusters provide multi-year volume backing and $43.4B in cash liquidity. Operating gross margin reached 80.7%, reflecting strong pricing realization on contracted memory architectures.
Watch: Watch for customer high-bandwidth memory inventory builds or competitor capacity additions eroding contract pricing.
ASML
ASML trades at 28.0x forward earnings with +32% to our G-Street Value alongside 55.2% year-over-year revenue expansion. As the sole provider of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, customer tool demand is projected to exceed manufacturing capacity through 2028. Recurring service and productivity upgrades across its expanding installed base support operational cash flows.
Watch: Watch for geopolitical export restrictions on mature lithography tools or foundry delays in next-generation high-NA tool intake.
META
Meta trades at 17.1x forward earnings with +35% to our G-Street Value following third-quarter 2026 revenue of $64.60B, up 26% year over year. Core advertising monetization improved with price per ad rising 14%, supporting an 81.0% gross margin and fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $73B to $76B. The current valuation provides a multiple discount relative to digital advertising peer Alphabet at 18.4x.
Watch: Watch for 2026 capital expenditure guidance narrowing above $145B or free cash flow remaining negative after the -$1.16B third-quarter print.
The receipts
The G-Street Portfolio: value 93.96, -6.0% since it started at 100 on Monday, October 26, 2026, against -1.7% for the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested; deepest drawdown -7.5%. Closing prices, before costs; not a live account.
27 booked picks · 10 open · win rate 77.8% · average +11.7% per call · best SNDK +47.4% · worst TTD -21.5%. Portfolio +15.8% booked, +8.0% with open positions marked to market (win rate 56.8% incl. open). Full track record →
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