Desk notes
Friday, October 16, 2026
Tonight's lineup stands as published. The desk's next full note comes Sunday evening.
No changes to the lineup.
Thursday, October 15, 2026
GEV remains Watch because strong backlog growth does not offset valuation risk and advance-funded cash flow.
No changes to the lineup.
- AMZN — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold: retain the cloud, retail and advertising franchises, but current infrastructure spending and negative trailing cash flow do not support adding at the reviewed price.
- APP — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold: current advertising cash generation supports retention; platform dependence, growth durability and unresolved litigation limit conviction in new purchases.
- AVGO — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold: substantial silicon and software cash generation supports retention, while customer-linked credit support and concentration require more margin before adding.
- GEV — Bench: Watch. GE Vernova has strong power and grid demand, but the frozen $941.78 review mark leaves little margin for execution risk.
- GOOGL — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold: search and cloud franchises support retention, but capital intensity and remedy risk limit the cash-return margin for new purchases.
- LMT — Bench · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Watch: a credible cash-generating diversification candidate, but program execution and relative upside need stronger confirmation before replacing a holding.
- META — Bench · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Watch on the existing research bench: advertising is valuable, but capital spending and unsettled legal cash claims limit the case for re-entry.
- MSFT — Bench · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Watch: enterprise and cloud durability are compelling, but the price requires successful AI monetization and returns on heavy infrastructure investment.
- MU — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold: strong current cash generation and customer commitments support retention, while memory-cycle risk argues against capitalizing peak earnings indefinitely.
- NVDA — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold, move from Buy: operating strength supports retention, but slower collections and contingent credit support require more margin before committing new money.
- RDDT — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold: monetization and cash generation justify retention; referral dependence, dilution and low recent cash taxes limit confidence in adding.
- TDG — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold: aftermarket pricing power supports retention, while debt service, acquisitions and the valuation restrict the case for adding.
- TSM — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold: leading-edge foundry demand supports retention, while reinvestment and geopolitical concentration warrant restraint before the next results.
- UBER — Holding · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Hold, move from Buy: operating progress and cash generation support keeping the position, while the acquisition-funding picture warrants more margin before adding.
- VST — Bench · decision dated Oct 11, 2026: Watch on the existing research bench: power demand and nuclear options are attractive, but common-cash returns after financing and preferred claims are not yet compelling enough to re-enter.
Sunday, October 11, 2026
NVIDIA and Uber move from Buy to Holding after a fresh review of cash collection, contingent credit support and acquisition funding. The other eight holdings and five research-bench names stay unchanged; no positions were opened or closed.
What would change our mind: Watch NVIDIA’s cash collection and Uber’s post-deal funding; stronger evidence could reopen the case for adding.
Tuesday, October 6, 2026
The Street narrowed its lineup to ten holdings, taking profits in Applied Materials, Meta, Vistra and Talen as their upside looked less compelling. Nvidia and Uber remained in the Buy Zone at that review, with the other eight on Hold. TransDigm’s thesis remained intact, while heavy exposure to AI spending remained the main portfolio risk.