The desk note — Wednesday, November 4, 2026
← Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · All desk notes
The note
Stocks jumped on Wednesday after Democrats won control of Congress, lifting the S&P 500 1.6% for its best day in three months, while chipmakers fell on fears of tighter rules for AI, with Nvidia down 3.1%. The desk kept all ten holdings and the bench, because no bench name is yet down to the price it would pay and the desk already owns plenty of the chip stocks that fell. What changed: AppLovin beat its own forecast with sales up 55% and its shares jumped after hours, so the desk will now add to it below $250 instead of $210.
What would change our mind: A cut to AI spending plans at Nvidia's biggest customers, or an Nvidia report on Nov 17 pointing to slower data-centre growth, would change the desk's mind.
What changed
No changes to the lineup.
By zone
Buy Zone
Four great companies trade at clear discounts to value in a fearful market; the desk adds on weakness below its levels.
- TSMC, Micron, ASML and Meta trade 19% to 48% below our value
- Adding: TSMC below $440 · Micron below $1,090 · ASML below $1,650 · Meta below $600
- Chip stocks fell on fears of tighter AI rules, with no company news behind it
Holding
Six holdings stay for their businesses, with no fresh money at today's prices: AppLovin just jumped, Amazon is near its review price, Alphabet is selling stock and Reddit's users are falling.
- AppLovin beat its forecast and jumped; the desk adds only on a pullback below $250
- Nvidia reports Nov 17, and the desk waits for a price below $195
- Alphabet is selling stock, and Reddit's users are falling, so neither gets fresh money
Bench
- Buy below: DELL $350 · MSFT $480 · GEV $800 · LMT $460 · AMAT $350
- Dell, GE Vernova and Applied Materials fell today but are still above those prices
- Nothing on the bench clearly beats a holding tonight
Name by name
AMAT · Bench
Applied Materials posts record sales, but analysts' targets predate its 30% fall and it is still above the $350 the bench would pay; it reports about Nov 12.
AMZN · Holding
Amazon rose as investors favoured the companies buying AI chips; cloud sales grew 39% last quarter against very heavy spending, and it now trades close to where the desk would review it.
Buy below $235 · Target $305 · AMZN's page →
APP · Holding
AppLovin beat its own forecast with sales up 55% and free cash flow of $1.4 billion, and guided higher again; the desk holds and would add on a pullback below $250.
Buy below $250 · Target $414 · APP's page →
ASML · Buy Zone
ASML is the only maker of the most advanced chipmaking tools and guided fourth-quarter sales up 22% to 30%; it trades 27% below our value after today's dip.
Buy below $1,650 · Target $2,020 · ASML's page →
AVGO · Holding
Broadcom's custom AI chips remain central, but it has promised to back up to about $43 billion of one customer's AI equipment leases, so the desk adds only below $300.
Buy below $300 · Target $430 · AVGO's page →
DELL · Bench
Dell's AI-server backlog is large but its cash lags its sales; it fell 9% today and the bench buys below $350.
GEV · Bench
GE Vernova's orders nearly doubled last quarter and it fell 9% today, but it is still above the $800 the bench would pay.
GOOGL · Holding
Alphabet rose today and its new bonds are debt, but it is also selling shares and trades just under 20% below our value, so it gets no fresh money for now.
Buy below $260 · Target $340 · GOOGL's page →
LMT · Bench
Lockheed fell 7% as a new Congress could push to wind down the war with Iran; at 11% below our value it is still far above the $460 the bench would pay.
META · Buy Zone
Meta's ad business grew 26% last quarter, and it borrowed another 9 billion euros in bonds for its AI buildout, which adds debt but no new shares; the desk would add below $600.
Buy below $600 · Target $780 · META's page →
MSFT · Bench
Microsoft rose today and trades only 4% below our value, so there is no margin of safety yet; the bench buys below $480.
MU · Buy Zone
Micron's memory upcycle is intact and it fell with chip stocks on no company news; it trades 48% below our value, but this is late in the cycle, so the desk reviews it for sale near $1,327.
Buy below $1,090 · Target $1,327 · MU's page →
NVDA · Holding
Nvidia fell with AI stocks on fears of tighter rules under a Democratic Congress, with no company news; its Nov 17 report is the test, and the desk waits for a price below $195.
Buy below $195 · Target $300 · NVDA's page →
RDDT · Holding
Reddit's sales grew 53%, but its US daily users fell 5% last quarter and could fall further, so it stays a small holding with no new money above $70.
Buy below $70 · Target $140 · RDDT's page →
TSM · Buy Zone
TSMC is still the bottleneck for leading-edge AI chips and slipped with the sector on no company news; it trades 28% below our value, and the desk would add below $440.
Buy below $440 · Target $524 · TSM's page →