The desk note — Tuesday, November 3, 2026
← Monday, November 2, 2026 · All desk notes
The note
Big Tech shares led a rebound on Tuesday, with Nvidia up 2.3% and Broadcom up 3.1%, lifting the S&P 500 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.8% even as Apple fell 1.9% on a warning that costlier memory chips will squeeze its profit margin. The desk kept all ten holdings and the bench, because neither Dell nor Applied Materials is yet down to the price it would pay, and it kept its small cash cushion ahead of AppLovin's report on Wednesday. What changed: Meta borrowed another $15 billion in bonds to fund its AI buildout, which adds debt but no new shares.
What would change our mind: An AppLovin quarter below its own guidance on Wednesday, or a cut to AI spending plans at Nvidia's biggest customers, would change the desk's mind.
What changed
No changes to the lineup.
By zone
Buy Zone
Four great companies trade at clear discounts to value in a fearful market; the desk adds on weakness below its levels.
- TSMC, Micron, ASML and Meta trade 22% to 44% below our value
- Adding: TSMC below $440 · Micron below $1,090 · ASML below $1,650 · Meta below $600
- Meta borrowed $15 billion more for AI, which adds debt but no new shares
Holding
Six holdings stay for their businesses, with no fresh money yet: AppLovin reports Wednesday, Alphabet is selling stock, and Reddit's users are falling.
- AppLovin reports Wednesday, Nov 4: another miss against its guide would point to real damage
- Nvidia reports Nov 17, and the desk waits for a price below $195
- Alphabet is selling stock, and Reddit's users are falling, so neither gets fresh money
Bench
- Buy below: DELL $350 · MSFT $480 · GEV $800 · LMT $460 · AMAT $350
- Every bench name trades above the price the desk would pay
- Nothing on the bench clearly beats a holding tonight
Name by name
AMAT · Bench
Applied Materials leads chip deposition and etch and is raising its stake in packaging maker Besi; it reports around Nov 12, and it would add to chip weight, so entry waits below $350.
AMZN · Holding
Amazon's cloud sales grew 39% to $46 billion and operating income reached $28.1 billion, but heavy spending put trailing free cash flow at a $42.4 billion outflow; it trades 19% below our value and the desk holds.
Add below $235 · review for sale near $305 · AMZN's page →
APP · Holding
AppLovin rose about 7% on Tuesday ahead of its report on Wednesday, Nov 4, which must land inside its $2.06 billion to $2.09 billion guide, because another miss would point to real damage.
Add below $210 · review for sale near $414 · APP's page →
ASML · Buy Zone
ASML is the only maker of EUV lithography tools and guided fourth-quarter sales up 22% to 30%; China's share of sales is the risk, and after Monday's add it trades 22% below our value, with the next add below $1,650.
Add below $1,650 · review for sale near $2,020 · ASML's page →
AVGO · Holding
Broadcom's custom AI chips stay central and its shares rose 3% on Tuesday, but it guarantees up to about $43 billion of one customer's AI-rack leases; the desk holds a smaller position and reviews for sale near $430.
Add below $300 · review for sale near $430 · AVGO's page →
DELL · Bench
Dell's AI-server backlog reached $95 billion, but cash flow lags revenue; it rose 4% on Tuesday and trades 26% below our value, and the desk waits below $350.
GEV · Bench
GE Vernova's orders nearly doubled to $29 billion and its backlog reached $197 billion, but at 7% below our value the desk waits below $800.
GOOGL · Holding
Alphabet's cloud revenue doubled to $30.7 billion, but it sold $12.4 billion of stock with $27.6 billion more available; it trades 20% below our value and the desk holds without adding.
Add below $260 · review for sale near $340 · GOOGL's page →
LMT · Bench
Lockheed converts earnings to cash well and raised its cash-flow outlook, but it trades only 5% below our value; the desk waits below $460.
META · Buy Zone
Meta's revenue grew 26%, and it borrowed another $15 billion in bonds to fund its AI buildout, adding debt but no new shares; the desk would add below $600, and it trades 23% below our value.
Add below $600 · review for sale near $780 · META's page →
MSFT · Bench
Microsoft's revenue grew 19% while it funds its build-out with $25 billion of new notes; at 10% below our value there is no margin of safety, so the desk waits below $480.
MU · Buy Zone
Micron's memory upcycle continues, and Apple's warning that costlier memory chips will squeeze its margin shows the pricing power; it trades 44% below our value, and since this is late in the cycle the desk would review it for sale well before that value.
Add below $1,090 · review for sale near $1,327 · MU's page →
NVDA · Holding
NVIDIA led Tuesday's rebound on nothing company-specific; it trades 34% below our value, and the desk waits for its Nov 17 report and a price below $195 to add.
Add below $195 · review for sale near $300 · NVDA's page →
RDDT · Holding
Reddit grew revenue 53% and generated $364 million of operating cash, but its US users fell 5% on the quarter and management warned of more; the desk holds a small position and adds only below $70.
Add below $70 · review for sale near $140 · RDDT's page →
TSM · Buy Zone
TSMC is still the bottleneck for leading-edge AI chips and rose with the sector's rebound on no company news; it trades 23% below our value, and the desk would add below $440.
Add below $440 · review for sale near $524 · TSM's page →