The desk note — Tuesday, October 27, 2026
← Thursday, October 22, 2026 · All desk notes
The note
Stocks rose on Tuesday as chipmakers and AI names rebounded, lifting the Nasdaq 1.2%, while Meta sold $37.5 billion of new stock to fund its AI build-out and Broadcom disclosed it may owe up to $43 billion if customer AI-rack leases go wrong. The desk kept all ten holdings and the bench on the first day of a portfolio rebuilt from scratch under its investment principles: no bench name beats what is already held at today's prices. What changed is TSMC's add level, now $450, after its value was cut to $519.
What would change our mind: Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday and Amazon and Reddit Thursday; capex rising faster than revenue would change the desk's mind.
What changed
- AMAT joined the bench
By zone
Buy Zone
TSMC, Micron, Reddit, ASML and Meta trade 16% to 42% below our value with growth the market is still pricing as temporary.
- TSMC, Micron, Reddit, ASML and Meta trade 16% to 42% below our value
- Adding: TSMC below $450 · Micron below $1,090 · Reddit below $155 · ASML below $1,700 · Meta below $640
- Reddit reports Oct 29; a miss on its own revenue guide would change the call
Holding
NVIDIA, Broadcom, Amazon, Alphabet and AppLovin keep their seats; the desk adds to none at today's prices while three of them report or face new risks this week.
- Five holdings kept; no fresh money at today's prices
- Alphabet reports Oct 28 and Amazon Oct 29; spending against cash flow is the test for both
- Broadcom guarantees up to $43B on customer AI-rack leases; any payout would end the case
Bench
- Buy below: DELL $450 · MSFT $490 · GEV $800 · LMT $460 · AMAT $350
- Applied Materials, 28% below our value, is the strongest bench case
- GE Vernova reports before Wednesday's open and Microsoft after the close
Name by name
AMAT · Bench
Applied Materials leads chip deposition and etch with 30% net margins and is raising its Besi stake to 20%; at 28% below our value it is the strongest bench case, with entry below $350.
AMZN · Holding
Amazon's $496 billion cloud backlog supports the case at 22% below our value; Thursday's report must show cloud growth keeping pace with spending.
Add below $225 · review for sale near $305 · AMZN's page →
APP · Holding
AppLovin's ad engine stays highly profitable, but growth slowed to 4% quarter on quarter and litigation weighs on the shares, down 24% since entry; the desk holds until its November report.
Add below $230 · review for sale near $414 · APP's page →
ASML · Buy Zone
ASML is the only maker of EUV lithography tools and expects demand to exceed its supply through 2028; it trades 23% below our value after record quarterly sales.
Add below $1,700 · review for sale near $2,134 · ASML's page →
AVGO · Holding
Broadcom's custom AI chips and $179 billion backlog stay intact, but it now guarantees up to $43 billion on customer AI-rack leases, so the desk holds without adding.
Add below $300 · review for sale near $486 · AVGO's page →
DELL · Bench
Dell's AI-server backlog is real, but after a 36% three-month run it trades only 7% below our value; the desk waits below $450.
GEV · Bench
GE Vernova's $176 billion backlog supports the business, but it trades 11% below our value ahead of Wednesday's report; the desk waits below $800.
GOOGL · Holding
Alphabet's $520 billion backlog and $243 billion of cash support its cloud build-out at 17% below our value; Wednesday's report is the next test.
Add below $300 · review for sale near $371 · GOOGL's page →
LMT · Bench
Lockheed raised its cash-flow outlook, closed the Ultra Maritime deal and holds a record $292 billion backlog, but it trades at our value; the desk waits below $460.
META · Buy Zone
Meta grows revenue 26% with 81% gross margins at about 18 times forward earnings; Tuesday's $37.5 billion stock sale dilutes holders by about 2-3%, still leaving it about 20% below our value.
Add below $640 · review for sale near $780 · META's page →
MSFT · Bench
Microsoft's $678 billion commercial backlog is intact and its voluntary exit offer is a cost step; at 6% below our value the desk waits below $490.
MU · Buy Zone
Micron's memory upcycle has revenue up nearly fivefold at about 4.5 times forward earnings, 30% below our value; the risk is a turn in memory prices.
Add below $1,090 · review for sale near $1,327 · MU's page →
NVDA · Holding
NVIDIA doubles revenue with 64% net margins at about 14 times forward earnings, 25% below our value; the desk holds its largest position and waits for a lower price to add.
Add below $195 · review for sale near $292 · NVDA's page →
RDDT · Buy Zone
Reddit grows revenue 61% with 91% gross margins and $2.8 billion of net cash at 14 times forward earnings; Thursday's report is the test after a 23% three-month fall.
Add below $155 · review for sale near $210 · RDDT's page →
TSM · Buy Zone
TSMC is still the bottleneck for leading-edge AI chips, growing revenue about 51% with 51% net margins at about 19 times forward earnings, 16% below our value.
Add below $450 · review for sale near $519 · TSM's page →