The desk note — Thursday, October 22, 2026
← Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · All desk notes
The note
Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as worries about the cost of building AI hit chipmakers, oil jumped to $99 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 5% for the first time since September. The desk kept the Ten and the bench in place: Lockheed rose 7% on a raised cash-flow outlook and a framework for 850 more F-35s but still trades above our value, and Alphabet's new power deal buys electricity, not sales. What changed is TransDigm, now the weakest holding at 9% below our value against ASML at 27% below, and its sale review now starts at $1,253.
What would change our mind: ASML's next word on 2027 orders and TransDigm's November report decide which of the two deserves a seat in the Ten; a cut to ASML's fourth-quarter outlook would end that case.
What changed
No changes to the lineup.
By zone
Buy Zone
- TSMC, Micron and Reddit trade 28% to 41% below our value after today's chip sell-off
- Adding: TSMC below $473 · Micron below $1,090 · Reddit below $179
- Reddit reports Oct 29; a miss on its own revenue guide would change the call
Holding
- Seven holdings kept; no fresh money at today's prices
- Alphabet reports Oct 28 and Amazon Oct 29; capex against cash flow is the test for both
- TransDigm, 9% below our value, is the weakest seat; its sale review now starts at $1,253
Bench
- Buy below: DELL $450 · MSFT $490 · GEV $800 · LMT $460
- ASML, 27% below our value after record sales, is the strongest bench case
- Lockheed rose 7% on its report and now trades 8% above our value
Name by name
AMZN · Holding
Amazon fell 5% to $250; with free cash flow near $3B on $776B of sales it stays a hold into its Oct 29 report, and its sale review now starts at our $305 value.
Add below $225 · review for sale near $305 · AMZN's page →
APP · Holding
AppLovin sits near its 52-week low at $264 against a $414 value built on targets set after its fall; litigation and the Nov 4 report keep it a hold, not an add.
Add below $230 · review for sale near $414 · APP's page →
ASML · Bench
ASML posted record sales of EUR11.7B and says 2027-2028 supply will fall short of demand; at $1,561, 27% below our $2,149 value, it is the bench's strongest case for a seat.
AVGO · Holding
Broadcom fell 4% to $323; its custom-chip backlog keeps the case against a $513 value, but customer-financing exposure means holding, not adding, before December's report.
Add below $300 · review for sale near $486 · AVGO's page →
DELL · Bench
Dell fell 7% to $453, just above its $450 bench entry; 58% growth is real but a 7.5% net margin keeps it waiting.
GEV · Bench
GE Vernova fell 11% to $827, 17% below our value; the bench waits for $800 into its Oct 28 report.
GOOGL · Holding
Alphabet's 1-gigawatt power deal with Voltus secures electricity, not sales; at $324 against a $398 value it stays a hold into its Oct 28 report.
Add below $300 · review for sale near $392 · GOOGL's page →
LMT · Bench
Lockheed grew sales 11%, raised its 2026 free-cash-flow outlook to $7.8-8.0B and set a framework for 850 F-35s; at $590, 8% above our value, the bench waits for $460.
MSFT · Bench
Microsoft's $678B of contracted cloud revenue anchors the business, but at $521, 7% below our value, the bench waits for $490 into its Oct 28 report.
MU · Buy Zone
Micron fell 6% in the sell-off to $856, 41% below our $1,463 value at four times forward earnings; the Buy Zone stands, adding below $1,090.
Add below $1,090 · review for sale near $1,285 · MU's page →
RDDT · Buy Zone
Reddit's 61% growth and net cash are unchanged a week before its Oct 29 report; at $150 against a $220 value it stays in the Buy Zone, adding below $179.
Add below $179 · review for sale near $211 · RDDT's page →
TDG · Holding
TransDigm's aftermarket margins hold, but at $1,142, 9% below our $1,253 value with $33.5B of debt, it is the weakest seat of the Ten; its sale review now starts at that value.
Add below $1,050 · review for sale near $1,253 · TDG's page →
TSM · Buy Zone
TSMC fell 4.5% with chips but its case is unchanged: 51% growth and a 51% net margin at $412 against a $573 value; it stays in the Buy Zone, adding below $473.
Add below $473 · review for sale near $546 · TSM's page →
UBER · Holding
Uber rose 2% to $69; its $10.1B of free cash flow holds the seat, but slower growth and acquisition funding keep fresh money out until its Nov 4 report.
Add below $65 · review for sale near $88 · UBER's page →
The desk's ranges
- NVDA — Add below $195 · review for sale near $276