Vistra (VST)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Texas-based power producer with nuclear, gas, and batteries — a prime beneficiary of datacenter-driven power scarcity.
In short: Integrated power generation and retail. Category: Merchant Power & Clean Energy. Sector: Utilities, Utilities - Independent Power Producers.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $164.16, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $193.29 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $135.03 (13.02× fwd EPS anchored to power multiples). 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 39 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 7 of 32
- Margin power: 4 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 7 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 12 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 4 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 18, 2026
The thesis
- Leading merchant power producer positioned for rising baseload demand from artificial intelligence datacenters.
- Commercial generation is fully hedged for 2026, protecting underlying operational cash flow.
- Substantial $2.26B trailing free cash flow supports continued share repurchases and deleveraging.
Risks
- Revenue contracted 5.5% YoY, sharply lagging utility peer NEE and equipment peer GEV.
- High leverage with $20.5B debt and 373% debt-to-equity restricts financial flexibility.
- Erratic earnings execution with consensus EPS misses in three of past four quarters.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release and updated 2027 guidance on November 6, 2026.
- Execution and regulatory approval progress on the 5,500 MW Cogentrix gas acquisition.
- Share price consolidation around the $150 support mark following recent market pullback.
Latest
VST trades at $152.02, holding near 14.7x forward P/E after consolidating down from its 52-week high of $205.50. Trailing revenue contracted 5.5% YoY with sequential deceleration to $4.02B in Q2 alongside GAAP EPS missing consensus in three of the past four quarters. Investors remain focused on upcoming Q3 results on November 6, 2026, the Cogentrix acquisition closing, and long-term hyperscaler power contracts.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $51.0B · revenue growth -5.5% year over year · gross margin 38.3% · net margin 11.6% · forward P/E 14.7 · next earnings Nov 6, 2026.
Decision history
- Oct 6, 2026 — Holding → Take Profit at $160.50. Booked from the $140.59 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $160.50 the gain was about +14.2%, after a 10% jump on the Energy Department's conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B. That leaves 8.4% to a $173.91 G-Street Value, the lowest quality score on the slate, our factor value ($135.63) below the price, second-quarter revenue down 5.5% from a year earlier and $20.5B of debt. We are selling strength, not the idea: the AI build-out's power leg is the same trade one step removed, and the Ten carries it through the hyperscalers that buy the power. Five-weekday display; re-entry needs a fresh 15% gap.
- Oct 6, 2026 — Sold at $160.50: +14.2% since entry (Target hit). Booked from the $140.59 entry; at the Oct 6 close of $160.50 the gain was about +14.2%, after a 10% jump on the Energy Department's conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B. That leaves 8.4% to a $173.91 G-Street Value, the lowest quality score on the slate, our factor value ($135.63) below the price, second-quarter revenue down 5.5% from a year earlier and $20.5B of debt. We are selling strength, not the idea: the AI build-out's power leg is the same trade one step removed, and the Ten carries it through the hyperscalers that buy the power. Five-weekday display; re-entry needs a fresh 15% gap.
- Aug 17, 2026 — Buy Zone → Holding at $146.11. The AI-power trade is real, but this is the weakest scorecard on the slate — shrinking revenue doesn't earn fresh-money status. The position stays; the buy badge doesn't.
- Aug 8, 2026 — Moved to Buy Zone at $140.59. Nuclear and gas generation portfolio perfectly positioned to supply AI power scarcity at compelling value.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- GE Vernova supplies Vistra — Gas turbines (about $2.0B a year). GE Vernova’s turbine backlog feeds generators racing to add capacity.
- Vistra supplies Amazon — Nuclear & gas PPAs (about $1.0B a year). Vistra sells firm power to datacenter campuses across Texas and PJM.
- Talen Energy competes with Vistra — Nuclear PPAs. Both sell firm nuclear power to hyperscalers in PJM and are exposed to the same FERC co-location rulings.
- Constellation Energy competes with Vistra — Power markets. The two biggest independent power producers fight for the same datacenter PPAs.
- Vistra supplies Homes & Industry — Retail power (TXU) (about $10.0B a year). Vistra’s retail arm sells power to Texas homes — the same electrons the datacenters are bidding up.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 1 edition on 1 day.
- Oct 6, 2026: Rates took a rare breath for record highs, and our Google going nuclear gave Talen and Vistra an electric day