Commodities

Rare Earths

The magnets inside every EV, drone, and missile — and China’s chokehold on them

MP — MP Materials

Owns Mountain Pass, the only operating rare-earth mine in America, and is building the mine-to-magnet chain the Pentagon decided it cannot live without — with the DoD as a shareholder and price-floor guarantor.

Why it matters: The purest play on rare-earth independence from China — a company whose biggest customer relationships are acts of industrial policy.

Outlook: The 2025 DoD equity deal and Apple magnet contract transformed the story from commodity price-taker to strategic national asset; execution on magnet production is now the whole game.

market cap $8B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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USAR — USA Rare Earth

The other American rare-earth bet: the Round Top heavy-rare-earth deposit in Texas plus a sintered-magnet plant in Oklahoma — pre-revenue, pure strategic-scarcity torque.

Why it matters: Where MP is the established champion, USAR is the call option: heavy rare earths (the ones China controls most tightly) and US magnet capacity, valued entirely on what it could become.

market cap $4B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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China Inc.

Controls ~70% of rare-earth mining and ~90% of refining — and has proven willing to use export controls as leverage. The reason Western rare-earth companies exist at all.

Gold & Silver

The oldest store of value, having its biggest decade since the 70s

NEM — Newmont

The world’s largest gold miner — a dozen tier-one mines across the Americas, Africa, and Australia, gushing cash at record gold prices.

market cap $96B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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AEM — Agnico Eagle

The quality operator of gold: safe jurisdictions (Canada, Finland, Australia), consistent execution, and the sector’s premium multiple to show for it.

market cap $68B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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WPM — Wheaton Precious Metals

Doesn’t mine anything: pays miners upfront for the right to buy their future gold and silver at a discount — all the upside of metal prices with none of the shovels.

market cap $47B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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PAAS — Pan American Silver

One of the largest silver producers — torque on the metal that is both a monetary asset and an industrial input for solar panels.

market cap $18B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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Copper

The metal of electrification — grids, EVs, and AI datacenters all bid for it

FCX — Freeport-McMoRan

The western world’s biggest copper producer, anchored by the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia — the default way to own the electrification trade.

market cap $85B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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SCCO — Southern Copper

The lowest-cost major copper producer with the industry’s largest reserves, concentrated in Peru and Mexico.

market cap $144B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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Oil & Gas

Still the bloodstream of the global economy

XOM — ExxonMobil

The western supermajor: Permian shale, Guyana’s prolific offshore fields, refining, and chemicals — a cash machine at almost any oil price.

market cap $630B · revenue $330B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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CVX — Chevron

The other US supermajor — Permian, Kazakhstan, and the Hess/Guyana stake it fought Exxon in arbitration to keep.

market cap $373B · revenue $200B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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OXY — Occidental

Permian pure-play with a carbon-capture side bet — and Warren Buffett’s favorite oil stock, with Berkshire holding ~28%.

market cap $55B (research snapshot; source date not recorded here)

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The End Users

Central banks, industry, and everyone who drives

Central Banks & Investors

The marginal gold buyer of the decade: central banks de-dollarizing reserves at a 1,000-tonne-a-year pace, plus ETF investors chasing the move.

Industry & Defense

EV makers, grid builders, AI datacenters, and the Pentagon — the buyers whose demand for copper and rare-earth magnets keeps outrunning supply.

The Global Economy

Everyone who drives, flies, ships, or heats — oil demand near record highs regardless of the energy-transition timeline.

Relationships on the map

• MP Materials supplies Industry & Defense — NdPr & magnets (~$500M/yr)
  Rare-earth oxides and finished magnets for EVs, electronics, and defense — underwritten by the DoD’s price floor and Apple’s magnet contract.
• China Inc. supplies Industry & Defense — The other 90%
  Nearly all refined rare earths still flow from China — every western supply-chain plan is measured against this dependence.
• MP Materials competes with China Inc. — Refining independence
  MP’s mine-to-magnet buildout is the West’s answer to Chinese export controls.
• Newmont supplies Central Banks & Investors — Gold (~$20B/yr)
  Newmont’s ounces feed the strongest official-sector gold bid in half a century.
• Agnico Eagle supplies Central Banks & Investors — Gold (~$11B/yr)
  Agnico’s low-risk ounces command the sector’s premium valuation.
• Pan American Silver supplies Industry & Defense — Silver (solar & electronics) (~$3B/yr)
  Half of silver demand is now industrial — solar panels above all.
• Newmont partners with Wheaton Precious Metals — Streaming deals
  Streamers like Wheaton finance miners upfront in exchange for discounted future metal — the sector’s shadow banking.
• Newmont competes with Agnico Eagle — Tier-one gold
  The two ways to own big gold: Newmont’s scale vs Agnico’s discipline.
• Freeport-McMoRan supplies Industry & Defense — Copper cathode (~$25B/yr)
  Grasberg’s output flows into grids, EVs, and the copper-hungry AI datacenter buildout.
• Southern Copper supplies Industry & Defense — Copper (~$13B/yr)
  The industry’s biggest reserves, sold into the same structural deficit.
• Freeport-McMoRan competes with Southern Copper — Copper crown
  Scale vs cost: Freeport’s volume against Southern Copper’s margins.
• ExxonMobil supplies The Global Economy — Fuels & chemicals (~$330B/yr)
  From Guyana crude to Gulf Coast chemicals — the biggest private oil business on earth.
• Chevron supplies The Global Economy — Fuels (~$200B/yr)
  Chevron’s barrels and the dividends they reliably fund.
• Occidental supplies The Global Economy — Permian crude (~$27B/yr)
  Shale barrels plus a moonshot in direct air capture.
• ExxonMobil competes with Chevron — Supermajor rivalry
  The two American supermajors fight over the same barrels, basins, and shareholders — Guyana arbitration included.
• USA Rare Earth supplies Industry & Defense — Magnets (ramping)
  The Stillwater, Oklahoma plant is ramping sintered neodymium magnets for defense and industrial customers — revenue is still ahead of it.
• USA Rare Earth competes with MP Materials — US magnet race
  Both race to rebuild American magnet capacity — MP with scale and DoD backing, USAR with heavy rare earths and optionality.
• USA Rare Earth competes with China Inc. — Heavy rare earths
  Round Top’s dysprosium and terbium target exactly the heavy rare earths China restricts hardest.