Atlassian (TEAM)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Jira and Confluence — the software team’s software. Coding agents that plan and track their own work are aimed straight at it.
In short: Team workflow and collaboration software. Category: Enterprise Collaboration Software. Sector: Technology, Software - Application.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $195.05, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $195.05 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $217.52 (32.28× fwd EPS anchored to software multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 82 out of 100 (Strong).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 15 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 11 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 17 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 11 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 12, 2026
The thesis
- Cloud revenue accelerated 31% YoY with RPO surging 44% to $4.8B on enterprise migrations.
- Teamwork Graph and Rovo AI integration drive seat expansion and double ARR growth among adopters.
Risks
- Autonomous coding agents natively tracking tasks threaten Jira seat counts and long-term developer relevance.
- Full-year FY27 revenue growth decelerating toward 13% leaves minimal margin for execution stumbles.
- Trading at 30.7x forward earnings commands a premium valuation over enterprise peers MSFT and NOW.
What we're watching
- Q1 FY27 earnings release on November 5, 2026, evaluating performance against $1.71B consensus guidance.
- Data Center revenue run-rate contraction pace versus Cloud migration ARR replacement rate.
Latest
TEAM trades at $206.79, hovering near its 52-week high after a blistering 213% six-month surge from spring lows. While Q4 FY26 delivered 28% YoY revenue growth to $1.77B, GAAP profitability, and $4.8B in RPO, sequential top line flattened. Initial FY27 guidance anticipates revenue growth slowing toward 13% as Data Center contracts taper, demanding sustained AI monetization to support 30.7x forward earnings.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $52.6B · revenue growth +27.6% year over year · gross margin 85.6% · net margin -0.8% · forward P/E 30.8 · next earnings Nov 5, 2026.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Anthropic competes with Atlassian — Coding agents vs dev-tool seats. Coding agents that plan, track, and document their own work compete with Jira’s reason to exist.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 5 editions on 5 days.
- Aug 10, 2026: Greed keeps the engines running, but as Atlassian touched the sky, Trade Desk hit an advertising headwind
- Aug 9, 2026: The tech party's bumping with TEAM, and TTD is proof some invitees are already heading home
- Aug 7, 2026: Job losses sealed the Fed pause, and while Atlassian soared on AI, TTD reminded us that not all flights are smooth
- Jul 28, 2026: Yields and oil took a welcome dip, and chips got the memo while our SaaS names found their rhythm
- Jul 27, 2026: Oil eased, chips got whacked, and our enterprise software plays are suddenly looking very smart