Pan American Silver (PAAS)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
One of the largest silver producers — torque on the metal that is both a monetary asset and an industrial input for solar panels.
In short: Silver and gold producer. Category: Precious Metals Mining Major. Sector: Basic Materials, Gold.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $55.88, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $55.88 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $89.28 (20.49× fwd EPS anchored to resources multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 69 out of 100 (Medium).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 11 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 19 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 0 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 6 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 15, 2026
The thesis
- Robust $864M net cash position and $1.32B trailing FCF provide strong downside balance-sheet protection.
- Deep 9.4x forward P/E discount versus peers like AEM offers substantial re-rating potential.
- Unhedged silver exposure delivers outsized torque to expanding structural industrial and investment demand.
Risks
- Sequential revenue deceleration over two quarters accompanied by a 16.5% Q2 EPS miss.
- High beta of 1.59 drives severe share volatility during broad precious metals pullbacks.
- Four downward earnings revisions reflect persistent all-in sustaining cost inflation pressures.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on November 4, 2026, scrutinizing AISC and cost trends.
- Silver spot price holding key support levels to preserve high-margin cash generation.
- Second-half production execution across Latin American operations meeting full-year guidance.
Latest
PAAS trades at 9.4x forward earnings with $1.32B in trailing free cash flow and an $864M net cash balance sheet. Top-line revenue decelerated sequentially for two consecutive quarters to $1.12B alongside a 16.5% Q2 earnings miss, triggering four downward analyst EPS revisions. Shares have retreated nearly 40% from 52-week highs amid precious metal volatility, with the market awaiting Q3 results on November 4, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $18.3B · revenue growth +38.4% year over year · gross margin 55.9% · net margin 32.0% · forward P/E 10.1 · next earnings Nov 4, 2026.
Decision history
- Aug 28, 2026 — Sold at $52.87: +9.9% since entry (Cut). Exiting PAAS to reallocate capital into higher-conviction AI semiconductor equipment leader AMAT while keeping slate balanced.
- Aug 23, 2026 — Buy Zone → Holding at $53.07. Silver ripped and took us +10% in five days — with 19% left to our value the easy entry is gone. Same playbook as CCJ: hold the winner, stop adding.
- Aug 17, 2026 — Moved to Buy Zone at $48.11. Silver at $60 and revenue up 38%, sold off 7% on a modest cost-and-tax miss. We booked WPM at value — this is how you buy the precious-metals exposure back cheaper.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Pan American Silver supplies Industry & Defense — Silver (solar & electronics) (about $3.0B a year). Half of silver demand is now industrial — solar panels above all.