Nebius (NBIS)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
European GPU cloud spun out of Yandex — Nvidia-backed, building AI datacenter capacity across Europe and the US, anchored by a multi-year Microsoft capacity deal.
In short: GPU cloud computing clusters. Category: AI Neocloud Infrastructure. Sector: Communication Services, Internet Content & Information.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $163.61, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $260.91 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $66.3 (13.3× sales vs growth band) — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 64 out of 100 (Medium).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 15 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 8 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 7 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 6 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 11, 2026
The thesis
- Quarterly revenue surged 454% YoY to $582M with sequential expansion confirming rapid cluster commercialization.
- Unsatisfied RPO reached $37.5B, underpinned by landmark multi-billion hyperscaler agreements and upfront prepayments.
- Nebius AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin reached 50%, validating highly profitable cluster unit economics.
Risks
- Full-year $20B-$25B CapEx drove -$3.4B quarterly FCF, forcing ATM issuance and convertible debt expansion.
- Three customers account for 59% of revenue, exposing performance to hyperscaler buildout pacing.
- Total debt reached $10.2B alongside $20.8B fair value convertibles, presenting substantial dilution overhang.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings on November 10 tracking toward $3.0B-$3.4B full-year guidance.
- Technical support test at 50-day moving average near $218 and resistance at $230-$245.
- Execution on 5 GW contracted power pipeline and commercialization of Palantir partnership capacity.
Latest
Q2 2026 revenue surged 454% YoY to $582.3M as unsatisfied RPO reached $37.5B, while group adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $236.2M. Shares trade at $221.07, consolidating above the 50-day moving average near $218 with resistance around $230-$245. While customer prepayments partially fund deployments, a $20B-$25B CapEx plan drives steep cash burn and $10.2B in debt.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $45.0B · revenue growth +454.0% year over year · gross margin 74.3% · net margin 3.1% · next earnings Nov 10, 2026.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Nvidia supplies Nebius — GPUs (about $3.0B a year). Nvidia supplies and invested in Nebius — seeding the neocloud ecosystem that buys its chips.
- Nebius supplies Microsoft — GPU capacity (multi-year) (about $3.0B a year). Microsoft signed a multi-year, ~$17B+ capacity deal with Nebius — validation that the neocloud model has hyperscale customers.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 8 editions on 8 days.
- Aug 13, 2026: CPI relief paved the way, and our AI compute plays just pulled off a quarter for the ages
- Aug 12, 2026: AI cloud keeps futures climbing ahead of CPI, and our SMR bet just found its data center niche
- Jul 27, 2026: Iran ceasefire calmed macro nerves for tech, but the AI trade is quickly separating the software from the storage
- Jul 26, 2026: AI capex jitters dragged tech lower, but SAP's cloud growth shows us where the smart money still goes
- Jul 21, 2026: Macro fears are lurking, but our AI memory chips are building new cloud infrastructure, and Nasdaq felt the charge
- May 15, 2026: BREAKING 🚨: Nvidia EXPLODES on Shock China News as Massive AI Buying BATTLES Inflation 🔥
- May 14, 2026: Brutal Inflation Just NUKED Rate Cuts — But NBIS EXPLODED 15% on Insane 684% AI Growth 🚨
- May 13, 2026: BREAKING 🚨: CPI Just NUKED Wall Street But Nebius is RIPPING 15% on a Massive Nvidia Bombshell 🔥