e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The fastest share-gainer in cosmetics: prestige-quality "holy grail dupes" at drugstore prices, shipped on a Silicon-Valley cadence. Now a two-engine company — mass e.l.f. at Target and Walmart, prestige Rhode (Hailey Bieber, acquired for ~$1B) at Sephora.
Why it matters: The center of the map: every incumbent here is either losing share to e.l.f.'s price point, selling through the same shelves, or watching its hero products get duped within months.
Outlook: Q3 FY26 net sales grew 38% to $489.5M — a seventh straight year of sales and share gains — with Rhode tracking toward ~$265M this year. The bear case is the 69% gross margin under China tariffs; the bull case is that the dupe machine keeps taking shelf inch by inch.
In short: Accessible cosmetics and skincare products. Category: High-Growth Mass Cosmetics Leader. Sector: Consumer Defensive, Household & Personal Products.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $103.35, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $107.85 (5 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $92.85 (23.8× fwd EPS anchored to consumer-defensive multiples).
G-Street Score: 75 out of 100 (Strong).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 15 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 18 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 8 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 17, 2026
The thesis
- Market share gains and 35.5% revenue growth dramatically outpace legacy beauty peers like EL.
- Rhode integration and international Sephora rollout expand premium shelf presence and pricing power.
- Elite 71.6% gross margin and $280M trailing free cash flow underpin rapid marketing reinvestment.
Risks
- Heavy reliance on China manufacturing leaves unit economics exposed to potential import tariffs.
- Target, Walmart, and Amazon account for 42% of revenue, posing high customer concentration.
- Trading at 29.1x forward earnings and above consensus target leaves zero valuation buffer.
What we're watching
- Q2 FY27 earnings release and fiscal 2027 guidance updates on November 4, 2026.
- Gross margin resilience against tariff headwinds and promotional cadence during holiday inventory build.
- Rhode international expansion traction across 19 European Sephora markets.
Latest
e.l.f. Beauty trades at $113.54 after surging 66% over six months, currently outpacing the Street's $108.88 mean target at 29.1x forward earnings. Operational execution remains stellar, demonstrated by 35.5% revenue growth to $479.4M, a major Q1 EPS beat ($1.75 vs. $0.72), and $280.2M in trailing free cash flow. Market focus shifts to the November 4, 2026 Q2 earnings print, where consensus models $470.8M in revenue alongside tariff resilience and Rhode expansion updates.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $6.7B · revenue growth +35.5% year over year · gross margin 71.6% · net margin 3.4% · forward P/E 29.1 · next earnings Nov 4, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Morgan Stanley, Hold: $90 target (October 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- Bank of America, Buy: $118 target (October 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- Citi, Buy: $130 target (October 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- Bernstein, Buy: $127 target (October 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- Robert W. Baird, Buy: $120 target (October 2026). Source: tipranks.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Chinese Contract Manufacturers supplies e.l.f. Beauty — Outsourced production. The engine of the $8 price point — and the tariff exposure that squeezed gross margin to ~69%. Diversification beyond China is the margin story to watch.
- e.l.f. Beauty competes with L'Oréal — The mass crown. e.l.f. dethroned Maybelline as America's #1 mass cosmetics brand by unit share — the defining upset of the dupe era.
- e.l.f. Beauty competes with Coty — Drugstore shelf. Every inch e.l.f. gains at Target and Walmart tends to come out of CoverGirl's planogram.
- e.l.f. Beauty competes with Estée Lauder — The dupe economy. e.l.f.'s playbook is duplicating prestige hero products at a fifth of the price — Estée Lauder's brands are the originals being duped.
- Rare Beauty competes with e.l.f. Beauty — Gen-Z mindshare. Celebrity gravity vs the dupe machine — both grew up on TikTok and fight for the same first-beauty-purchase customer.
- e.l.f. Beauty supplies Target — Core mass shelf (about $300M a year). Target was e.l.f.'s original national launchpad and remains a marquee channel — the brand's best shelf position in mass retail.
- e.l.f. Beauty supplies Ulta Beauty — Beauty-aisle expansion. Ulta carries e.l.f. deep into the beauty-first shopper base, mass and masstige side by side.
- e.l.f. Beauty supplies LVMH (Sephora, Fenty, Dior Beauty) — Rhode at Sephora. The Rhode acquisition bought e.l.f. a seat in prestige: Hailey Bieber's brand launched at Sephora — an LVMH-owned channel — in one of the chain's biggest debuts.
- e.l.f. Beauty partners with TikTok / TikTok Shop — Virality + TikTok Shop. e.l.f. is the defining brand of beauty TikTok — viral dupes drive discovery, and TikTok Shop converts it on the spot.
- e.l.f. Beauty supplies The Beauty Consumer — Affordable glam (about $1.7B a year). The whole company is priced for the person who wants the look without the prestige receipt.