The desk note — Tuesday, October 20, 2026

The note

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday: the S&P 500 added 0.3% to 7,713 while the Nasdaq was flat, as the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.12% after September housing starts fell well short of forecasts. The desk kept all ten holdings and the five bench names in place: Micron's minerals supply deal and Lockheed's missile test are welcome but change no case, and a new $350 analyst target on Amazon is opinion until its Oct 29 report. Nothing changed since yesterday: every add price and sale level stands, with Lockheed reporting Thursday morning and Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Reddit next week.

What would change our mind: A revenue or cash-flow miss against a company's own guidance in the coming reports, starting with Lockheed on Thursday, is what would move a name; a headline or an analyst target is not.

What changed

No changes to the lineup.

By zone

Buy Zone

TSMC, Micron and Reddit stay in the Buy Zone: each trades about a quarter or more below our value and nothing filed or announced tonight changes its case.

• TSMC, Micron and Reddit trade 24% to 39% below our value with their cases unchanged tonight
• Adding: TSMC below $473 · Micron below $1,090 · Reddit below $179
• Reddit reports Oct 29; a miss on its own revenue guide is what would change the call

Holding

Seven holdings keep their seats with no fresh money: each carries a cash-flow, funding or legal question that its coming report, not a headline, will answer.

• Seven holdings kept; no fresh money at today's prices
• Alphabet reports Oct 28 and Amazon Oct 29; capex against cash flow is the test for both
• TransDigm, at 12% upside, is the one holding below our 15% entry margin

Bench

• Buy below: DELL $450 · MSFT $490 · GEV $829 · LMT $460 · ASML $1,450
• Lockheed reports Thursday at a price level with our value
• ASML is the cheapest bench name, 26% below our value

Name by name

AMZN · Holding

A $350 analyst target is opinion, not cash: negative free cash flow after $54B of quarterly capex keeps Amazon a hold at $263 against a $329 value until its Oct 29 report.

Add below $225 · review for sale near $331 · AMZN's page →

APP · Holding

AppLovin has the most upside among the holds (52% at $272 against $414), but slowing growth and litigation keep it a hold rather than an add.

Add below $230 · review for sale near $414 · APP's page →

ASML · Bench

ASML's EUV monopoly is intact and it is the cheapest bench name at $1,631 against $2,200, but with no new evidence tonight it stays on the bench for Sunday's ranking.

ASML's page →

AVGO · Holding

Broadcom's custom-silicon backlog keeps the case, but customer-financing exposure and negative revisions mean holding, not adding, at $334 against a $513 value.

Add below $300 · review for sale near $486 · AVGO's page →

DELL · Bench

Dell's AI-server backlog is real but margins are thin; at $462, above its $450 entry, the bench waits for a lower price and the next report.

DELL's page →

GEV · Bench

GE Vernova's backlog is long, but at $890 with under 10% upside the desk waits for a price at or below $829, the level its value supports, into the Oct 28 report.

GEV's page →

GOOGL · Holding

Alphabet's $519B cloud backlog anchors the case, but capex above operating cash and the thinnest upside of the Ten (17% at $340 against $398) keep it a hold into the Oct 28 report.

Add below $300 · review for sale near $392 · GOOGL's page →

LMT · Bench

Lockheed's Spike NLOS test is program news, not revenue; at $549, level with our value, the bench waits below $460 through Thursday's report.

LMT's page →

MSFT · Bench

Microsoft's Azure growth justifies the business, but capex near operating cash keeps the desk waiting below $490 into the Oct 28 report; at $532 nothing changed.

MSFT's page →

MU · Buy Zone

Micron's Indium supply deal secures materials for its American plants but carries no dollar figure; at $896 against a $1,285 review level the Buy Zone stands and the desk does not chase tonight's higher analyst targets.

Add below $1,090 · review for sale near $1,285 · MU's page →

NVDA · Holding

Nvidia's demand is intact and tonight was quiet, but the hold stands at $216 against a $306 value until a filing shows cash collections keeping pace with growth.

Add below $195 · review for sale near $276 · NVDA's page →

RDDT · Buy Zone

Reddit's 61% growth and net-cash balance sheet are unchanged ahead of its Oct 29 report; at $156 against a $220 value it stays in the Buy Zone, adding below $179.

Add below $179 · review for sale near $211 · RDDT's page →

TDG · Holding

TransDigm's aftermarket cash carries its debt, but at 12% upside ($1,143 against $1,277) it is the holding most exposed to Sunday's comparison with the bench.

Add below $1,050 · review for sale near $1,310 · TDG's page →

TSM · Buy Zone

TSMC remains the leading-edge bottleneck for AI chips, with nothing filed since its Oct 15 results; at $425 against a $562 value it stays in the Buy Zone, adding below $473.

Add below $473 · review for sale near $546 · TSM's page →

UBER · Holding

Uber's free cash flow holds but the acquisition-funding question keeps fresh money out; at $69 against a $93 value it stays a hold into its November report.

Add below $65 · review for sale near $88 · UBER's page →