The desk note — Sunday, October 18, 2026

The note

Markets were closed Sunday after a week in which rising Treasury yields pulled technology valuations lower. The desk ranked the whole candidate universe against the Ten and the bench and kept every position and every bench name where Friday's lineup put them: nothing in the weekend's filings or company news changes a case, and the names that could challenge a holding all report within two weeks. Nothing changed since Friday; NVIDIA's review is carried until its weekend news is fully checked.

What would change our mind: Lockheed reports Thursday and Alphabet, Microsoft, GE Vernova, Amazon and Reddit the week after; a cash-flow miss against the desk's published checks, not a headline, is what would move a name.

What changed

No changes to the lineup.

By zone

Buy Zone

• TSMC, Micron and Reddit trade 30% to 45% below our value after last week's selloff
• Adding: TSMC below $473 · Micron below $1,230 · Reddit below $184
• Reddit reports Oct 29; a revenue miss against its own guide would change the call

Holding

• Seven holdings kept; none added to at today's prices
• Alphabet (Oct 28) and Amazon (Oct 29) report first; capex against cash flow is the test
• Howmet is the name pushing hardest for TransDigm's seat; both report by Nov 5

Bench

• Buy below: DELL $450 · MSFT $490 · GEV $880 · LMT $460 · ASML $1,450
• Lockheed reports Thursday with the bench's first cash-flow check
• ASML is the cheapest bench name, a third below our value

Name by name

AMZN · Holding

AWS at 37% growth defends Amazon's moat, but negative free cash flow after $54bn of quarterly capex makes it a hold into Oct 29.

Add below $225 · review for sale near $331 · AMZN's page →

APP · Holding

AppLovin shows the most upside on the slate but slowing sequential growth and 69% cash conversion keep it a hold into the Nov 4 report.

Add below $230 · review for sale near $414 · APP's page →

ASML · Bench

ASML's Q3 shows the EUV monopoly intact and it is the cheapest bench name at $1,642 against $2,195; one full coverage cycle before it can enter.

ASML's page →

AVGO · Holding

Broadcom's custom silicon and $179bn backlog keep the case at $329 against $486, but the customer-financing backstop means hold, not add.

Add below $300 · review for sale near $486 · AVGO's page →

DELL · Bench

Dell's AI server backlog is real but margins are thin; the desk waits below $450.

DELL's page →

GEV · Bench

GE Vernova's turbine backlog runs through 2030, but at 37x earnings and with advance-driven cash the desk waits below $880.

GEV's page →

GOOGL · Holding

Alphabet's cloud backlog anchors the case, but $45bn of quarterly capex and the thinnest upside of the Ten keep it a hold into Oct 28.

Add below $300 · review for sale near $392 · GOOGL's page →

LMT · Bench

Lockheed's Oct 16 TACAMO delivery shows program momentum; the Oct 22 report and its cash-flow check decide whether $460 is the right entry.

LMT's page →

MSFT · Bench

Microsoft's Azure growth justifies the price but capex above $50bn a quarter keeps the desk waiting below $490 into the Oct 28 report.

MSFT's page →

MU · Buy Zone

Micron prices a peak memory cycle at under 5x forward earnings; at $879 against $1,277 it stays in the Buy Zone with position size capped by the Taiwan labour dispute.

Add below $1,230 · review for sale near $1,338 · MU's page →

RDDT · Buy Zone

Reddit's 61% growth, 91% gross margin and $2.8bn net cash hold at $156 against $211; the Oct 29 report is the next test.

Add below $184 · review for sale near $211 · RDDT's page →

TDG · Holding

TransDigm's aftermarket cash carries its debt, but at 12% upside it is below the desk's entry hurdle and Howmet is the challenger to compare on Oct 29.

Add below $1,050 · review for sale near $1,310 · TDG's page →

TSM · Buy Zone

TSMC's Oct 15 beat-and-raise keeps the sub-3nm bottleneck thesis intact, and at $413 against a $544 value it stays in the Buy Zone.

Add below $473 · review for sale near $546 · TSM's page →

UBER · Holding

Uber's $10bn of free cash flow is intact, but Delivery Hero financing and the ezCater deal keep fresh money out at $70 against $96.

Add below $65 · review for sale near $88 · UBER's page →

The desk's ranges

• NVDA — Add below $195 · review for sale near $276