USA Rare Earth (USAR)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The other American rare-earth bet: the Round Top heavy-rare-earth deposit in Texas plus a sintered-magnet plant in Oklahoma — pre-revenue, pure strategic-scarcity torque.
Why it matters: Where MP is the established champion, USAR is the call option: heavy rare earths (the ones China controls most tightly) and US magnet capacity, valued entirely on what it could become.
In short: Domestic mine-to-magnet supply developer. Category: Critical Minerals & Rare Earths. Sector: Basic Materials, Other Industrial Metals & Mining.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $32.71, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 100% analyst leg $32.71 (0 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + factor model can't price this profile (below its floor) — analyst leg only. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 25 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 14 of 32
- Margin power: 1 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 3 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 5 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 0 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 2 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 12, 2026
The thesis
- Vertically integrated Western mine-to-magnet platform backed by $1.53B cash and federal funding support.
- Serra Verde integration secures critical heavy rare earths scale outside of Chinese supply.
Risks
- Quarterly revenue plateaued at $5.82M while Q2 free cash outflow spiked to $126.6M.
- Negative gross margins and severe capital intensity during facility buildout and commissioning.
- Execution and permitting risks across Oklahoma magnet manufacturing and Round Top deposit.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings report and commercial shipment progress on November 5, 2026.
- Initial operational execution milestones across reorganized business units under CEO Thras Moraitis.
- Stock defense near 52-week low of $11.45 and finalization of CHIPS Act funding.
Latest
USAR declined to $12.56, down 31.0% over three months and nearing its 52-week low of $11.45 as top-line revenue stalled at $5.82M while Q2 free cash burn accelerated to $126.6M. The company retains $1.53B in balance-sheet cash alongside proposed $1.6B CHIPS Act funding to support the Serra Verde integration and domestic magnet scaling. Newly elevated CEO Thras Moraitis reorganized operations into three core units on October 1, 2026 ahead of Q3 earnings on November 5, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $4.0B · gross margin -9.7% · net margin 0.0% · forward P/E 351.3 · next earnings Nov 5, 2026.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- USA Rare Earth supplies Industry & Defense — Magnets (ramping). The Stillwater, Oklahoma plant is ramping sintered neodymium magnets for defense and industrial customers — revenue is still ahead of it.
- USA Rare Earth competes with MP Materials — US magnet race. Both race to rebuild American magnet capacity — MP with scale and DoD backing, USAR with heavy rare earths and optionality.
- USA Rare Earth competes with China Inc. — Heavy rare earths. Round Top’s dysprosium and terbium target exactly the heavy rare earths China restricts hardest.