NuScale Power (SMR)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The only small modular reactor design with US regulatory approval — the ticker literally is the thesis.
In short: Small modular reactor developer. Category: Speculative Clean Energy Infrastructure. Sector: Industrials, Specialty Industrial Machinery.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $9.34, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 100% analyst leg $9.34 (3 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + factor model can't price this profile (below its floor) — analyst leg only. 2 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 24 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 7 of 32
- Margin power: 0 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 8 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 5 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 0 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 4 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 11, 2026
The thesis
- Only NRC design-certified small modular reactor developer, conferring key regulatory first-mover credibility.
- Substantial $1.07B cash balance provides multi-year operating cushion to negotiate binding commercial agreements.
- Positioned to supply long-term 24/7 clean baseload power for hyperscaler AI data centers.
Risks
- Quarterly revenue collapsed to $75K, leaving operations functionally pre-commercial without binding module purchases.
- Estimated multi-year construction pushes first reactor deployment past 2030, trailing immediate load demand.
- Persistent negative free cash flow and active $750M ATM facility inflict continuous equity dilution.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 financial print and cash burn trajectory scheduled for November 5, 2026.
- Conversion of non-binding TVA or ENTRA1 frameworks into firm commercial reactor off-take.
- Pace of equity issuance under the $750M ATM facility diluting existing shareholders.
Latest
SMR trades near $7.20 after touching a 52-week low of $7.07, pressured by UBS downgrading the stock to Sell with a $6 target over multi-year build schedules and absent firm off-take. Q2 2026 revenue fell 99% year-over-year to $75K following the completion of legacy FEED contracts, dragging trailing free cash flow to -$778.8M. Although $1.07B in cash provides operational runway, heavy burn and ongoing usage of its $750M ATM facility maintain acute dilution pressure.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $2.4B · revenue growth -99.1% year over year · gross margin 23.5% · net margin 0.0% · next earnings Nov 5, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- UBS, Sell: $6 target (September 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- RBC Capital, Sector Perform: $10 target (August 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- B. Riley Securities, Buy: $15 target (August 2026). Source: benzinga.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Oklo competes with NuScale Power — SMR designs. Two competing bets on who gets small reactors licensed, built, and sold first.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 3 editions on 3 days.
- Sep 13, 2026: Markets are sweating Wednesday's Fed rate decision, but DELL ripped twelve percent on an AI server call
- Aug 12, 2026: AI cloud keeps futures climbing ahead of CPI, and our SMR bet just found its data center niche
- Aug 11, 2026: Oil and CPI caution put the brakes on things, but our nuclear energy plays are building steam for AI.