Charles Schwab (SCHW)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The $10T custody giant of American retail wealth — brokerage, banking, and advice for the generation that still calls its broker.
Why it matters: The deepest pool of assets Robinhood is trying to drain: Gold subscriptions and IRA matches are aimed straight at Schwab accounts.
In short: Retail brokerage, banking, wealth custody. Category: Custodian & Wealth Management Giant. Sector: Financial Services, Capital Markets.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $102.14, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: high).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $102.14 (3 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $138.21 (17.6× fwd EPS anchored to financials multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street. 2 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 68 out of 100 (Medium).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 20 of 32
- Margin power: 13 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 5 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 21 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 4 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 16, 2026
The thesis
- Forward P/E of 11.7x offers a substantial discount versus retail peers IBKR and HOOD.
- Record quarterly revenue of $7.17B and 39% net margins prove durable operating leverage.
- Massive $10T+ custody scale drives steady asset gathering and recurring advisory fees.
Risks
- Management guided 2026 revenue and net interest margin toward the lower end.
- Persistent client cash sorting pressures high-margin bank deposit sweeps and funding mix.
- Fintech rivals like HOOD continue aggressively competing for younger self-directed trading volume.
What we're watching
- Stabilization of bank deposit sweep balances following 2% sequential third-quarter outflow.
- Technical price consolidation and defense around the pivotal $90 support level.
- Fourth-quarter net interest margin progression toward management's long-term Fed Funds+ target.
Latest
SCHW slid to $91.96 following 3Q26 earnings, trading at a compressed 11.7x forward P/E despite delivering $1.69 EPS on $7.17B revenue. While third-quarter core net new assets rose 38% year-over-year, management signaling full-year revenue and NIM growth near the low end of guidance prompted target cuts from Goldman Sachs ($117) and UBS ($109). Street sentiment remains divided as bulls highlight operating leverage while bears focus on ongoing sweep deposit pressures.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $159.0B · revenue growth +16.9% year over year · gross margin 97.5% · net margin 39.3% · forward P/E 11.7.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Goldman Sachs, Buy: $117 target (October 2026). Source: investing.com
- UBS, Buy: $109 target (October 2026). Source: gurufocus.com
- Evercore ISI, In-Line: $107 target (October 2026). Source: investing.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Robinhood competes with Charles Schwab — Brokerage accounts & cash. Gold subscriptions, IRA matches, and transfer bonuses — Robinhood’s whole retention stack is aimed at pulling accounts out of Schwab’s $10T custody empire.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 1 edition on 1 day.
- Sep 22, 2026: Banks stumbled over margin panic, leaving our Micron position to casually push tech to new records