Southern Copper (SCCO)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The lowest-cost major copper producer with the industry’s largest reserves, concentrated in Peru and Mexico.
In short: Integrated copper mining and smelting. Category: Tier-1 Low-Cost Copper Miner. Sector: Basic Materials, Copper.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $163.80, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $169.61 (2 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $157.99 (20.9× fwd EPS anchored to resources multiples). 2 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 76 out of 100 (Strong).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 11 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 5 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 21 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 3 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 9 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 12, 2026
The thesis
- Premier tier-1 reserve base delivers industry-leading 35.9% net margins and superior cash generation.
- Consistently beats earnings consensus, printing Q2 EPS of $1.99 on robust refined copper prices.
- Significantly outearns copper peer FCX on revenue growth and profitability metrics.
Risks
- Rich 27.8x forward P/E multiple leaves substantial downside exposure if refined copper prices soften.
- Sequential revenue plateaued at $4.29B in Q2, indicating near-term top-line momentum is slowing.
- Wall Street consensus remains Underperform, anticipating double-digit multiple compression toward historical averages.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on October 22, 2026, focusing on sequential operating margins.
- Execution milestones and regulatory clearances for the Tia Maria copper project in Peru.
- LME physical copper inventory movements and benchmark COMEX price stability.
Latest
SCCO advanced +5.3% to $209.21, trading near its 52-week high of $220.78 following 40.6% YoY revenue growth to $4.29B in Q2 2026. While exceptional 35.9% net margins continue to pace the mining sector, sequential revenue growth leveled off from $4.25B in Q1 to $4.29B in Q2. At 27.8x forward earnings, valuation trades at a notable premium to Wall Street's $175.30 mean price target heading into Q3 results on October 22, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $169.3B · revenue growth +40.6% year over year · gross margin 64.5% · net margin 35.9% · forward P/E 26.5 · next earnings Oct 22, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Wells Fargo, Equal-Weight: $190 target (October 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- Barclays, Underweight: $164.03 target (July 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Southern Copper supplies Industry & Defense — Copper (about $13.0B a year). The industry’s biggest reserves, sold into the same structural deficit.
- Freeport-McMoRan competes with Southern Copper — Copper crown. Scale vs cost: Freeport’s volume against Southern Copper’s margins.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 1 edition on 1 day.
- Aug 21, 2026: Treasury buys eased yields, sparking our copper and crypto plays, yet chips are holding their breath for earnings