Rocket Lab (RKLB)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The clear #2 in launch: Electron for small payloads, Neutron coming for medium-lift, plus a fast-growing satellite components and spacecraft business.
Why it matters: The only publicly traded pure-play with a working orbital rocket — the retail investor’s SpaceX proxy.
Outlook: Neutron’s debut dominates the story while Electron flies at record cadence; revenue growing ~64% YoY on launch plus the fast-scaling satellite-systems business.
In short: Orbital launch and spacecraft manufacturing. Category: Space Launch & Orbital Infrastructure. Sector: Industrials, Aerospace & Defense.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $101.20, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 100% analyst leg $101.2 (1 analyst target, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + factor model can't price this profile (below its floor) — analyst leg only. 4 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 53 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 7 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 8 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 10 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 0 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 15, 2026
The thesis
- Revenue expanded 62% YoY to $234M, backed by a record $2.36B multi-year backlog.
- Robust $2.3B cash reserve eliminates costly debt financing for pending Iridium Communications acquisition.
- Proven launch cadence and expanding Space Systems segment solidify clear #2 Western launch moat.
Risks
- Heavy cash burn (-$371M TTM FCF) driven by intensive Neutron rocket and pad R&D.
- Q2 EPS miss ended a beat streak, reflecting compressed margins and elevated operating expenses.
- Any Neutron maiden flight delay beyond late 2026 threatens medium-lift commercial launch economics.
What we're watching
- Neutron pad completion and hot-fire tests in Q4 2026 ahead of maiden flight.
- Q3 2026 earnings on November 9, 2026, targeting $250M-$265M revenue and margin progression.
- Regulatory clearances and closing milestones for the pending $8B pro-forma Iridium acquisition.
Latest
Shares dropped to $59.18 amid broader space-sector pressure, CFO insider sales, and Neutron delay concerns. Sequential revenue accelerated 16.8% in Q2 to $234.1M with backlog reaching $2.36B, though Q2 EPS missed (-$0.08) amid heavy R&D burn. With $2.30B in total cash, attention centers on Q3 guidance ($250M-$265M) and Neutron maiden flight milestones.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $32.5B · revenue growth +62.0% year over year · gross margin 37.3% · net margin -21.5% · forward P/E 884.3 · next earnings Nov 9, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Bank of America, Buy: $110 target (August 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
Decision history
- Sep 23, 2026 — Sold at $70.31: +4.0% since entry (Cut). Exit under the fifteen-position ceiling. Launch execution is credible, but negative cash flow and dependence on future program milestones leave the valuation more uncertain than our retained established businesses. Neutron delivery and the economics of major programs remain important execution risks; successful progress could still create upside after our exit.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Rocket Lab supplies Planet Labs — Electron launches. Planet has flown imaging satellites on Rocket Lab’s Electron.
- SpaceX competes with Rocket Lab — Launch market. Neutron is aimed squarely at Falcon 9’s medium-lift monopoly.
- Blue Origin competes with Rocket Lab — NASA contracts. Blue Origin took NASA’s $700M Mars relay orbiter from Rocket Lab in September 2026 — the two now fight for the same civil-space and constellation work.
- Rocket Lab supplies Governments — Launch & space systems (about $600M a year). Government and defense work anchors Rocket Lab’s launch and satellite-components backlog.