Redwire (RDW)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Space infrastructure roll-up: solar arrays, camera systems, and components that fly on other people’s spacecraft.
In short: Spacecraft components and defense payloads. Category: Space Infrastructure & Defense Tech. Sector: Industrials, Aerospace & Defense.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $13.14, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $13.14 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $21.48 (12.6× sales vs growth band) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street. 3 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 47 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 20 of 32
- Margin power: 3 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 8 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 11 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 0 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 5 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 12, 2026
The thesis
- Record $542M contracted backlog and 1.42 book-to-bill provide solid multi-year revenue visibility.
- Edge Autonomy integration transformed defense margins, expanding gross margins to a record 27.8%.
- Fortress $557M cash balance eliminates insolvency risk and comfortably self-funds operational expansion.
Risks
- Aggressive ATM equity dilution drove shares past 249M, eroding per-share revenue and earnings progress.
- Persistent GAAP net losses and continued cash burn sustain ongoing balance sheet execution pressure.
- Legacy Space segment revenue softened slightly, raising execution dependence on defense technology payloads.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings on November 4, 2026, tracking Space segment inflection and cash burn.
- Conversion pace of $393.4M in remaining performance obligations and new defense payload wins.
- Technical support around the $8.00–$9.00 level following extended two-month post-offering decline.
Latest
RDW trades at $9.58, down 27.4% over two months as heavy ATM equity dilution expanded common shares to ~249M despite bolstering cash to $557.0M. Q2 2026 revenue jumped 89.6% YoY to $117.1M with gross margins turning positive to a record 27.8%, driven by Edge Autonomy and defense payload deliveries. Street sentiment remains divided heading into Q3 earnings on November 4, with Bank of America at $8 Underperform versus Canaccord and Cantor targeting $13.50–$15.00.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $2.1B · revenue growth +89.6% year over year · gross margin 22.7% · net margin -57.3% · next earnings Nov 4, 2026.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Redwire supplies Intuitive Machines — Spacecraft components. Redwire-class components — solar arrays, cameras — fly on landers like Intuitive Machines’.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 1 edition on 1 day.
- Aug 6, 2026: Wall Street felt the gravity of profit-taking, and our space tech is defying it