Rubrik (RBRK)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Backup reinvented as cyber resilience: the Microsoft-backed 2024 IPO sells the immutable copy of your data that lets a company recover from ransomware without paying — the fastest-growing name on this map.
In short: Zero-trust cyber recovery software. Category: Enterprise Cyber Resilience Platform. Sector: Technology, Software - Infrastructure.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $110.95, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 100% analyst leg $110.95 (4 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + factor model can't price this profile (below its floor) — analyst leg only. 1 analyst target has no linked source and is shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 69 out of 100 (Medium).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 20 of 32
- Margin power: 12 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 11 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 16 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 9 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 13, 2026
The thesis
- Subscription ARR expanded 33% YoY to $1.66B backed by 119% net revenue retention.
- Outpacing PANW and CRWD in top-line growth while dominating modern cyber resilience.
- Strong cash conversion delivering $286.2M trailing free cash flow with expanding margins.
Risks
- Stretched valuation at 156.3x forward P/E leaves minimal room for execution missteps.
- Stock-based compensation of $101.0M quarterly maintains GAAP net losses of $254.4M trailing.
- Q3 revenue guidance implies sharp sequential deceleration toward flat quarter-over-quarter growth.
What we're watching
- Q3 FY2027 revenue execution against guided $429M to $431M range.
- Operating leverage progress narrowing quarterly GAAP net losses below $60M.
- Pullback toward the $95 to $100 support zone for improved risk-reward entry.
Latest
Rubrik trades around $120.01 after a 131% six-month run, leaving shares priced at a rich 156.3x forward P/E against a $120.15 average target. Q2 FY2027 demonstrated continued momentum with revenue rising 37.9% YoY to $427.3M and subscription ARR reaching $1.66B, though Q3 guidance implies sequential growth flattening. While trailing free cash flow reached $286.2M, quarterly stock-based compensation of $101.0M continues to weigh on GAAP operating profitability.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $23.1B · revenue growth +37.9% year over year · gross margin 80.2% · net margin -16.5% · forward P/E 146.4.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Wedbush, Outperform: $120 target (September 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- KeyBanc, Overweight: $120 target (August 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- BTIG Research, Buy: $125 target (August 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- Oppenheimer, Outperform: $120 target (August 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Rubrik partners with CrowdStrike — Recovery meets detection. Rubrik’s data-resilience telemetry feeds Falcon’s SIEM so a ransomware detection and the clean recovery point live in the same workflow.