Palantir (PLTR)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The software layer of modern warfare: data fusion and AI targeting for the Pentagon and allies, now embedded with the primes themselves.
In short: AI data ontology and analytics. Category: Enterprise & Defense AI Software. Sector: Technology, Software - Infrastructure.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $199.80, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $227.85 (3 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $134.34 (57.15× fwd EPS anchored to software multiples) — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced. 2 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 84 out of 100 (Strong).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 15 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 11 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 24 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 2 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 5 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 11, 2026
The thesis
- Revenue accelerated for four straight quarters to 93% YoY with exceptional 157% NRR.
- Industry-leading 49% GAAP net margin and 155% Rule of 40 dwarf software and defense peers.
- DoD integration and sovereign AI demand establish an unmatched operational data moat.
Risks
- Demanding 88.9x forward P/E leaves the stock vulnerable to severe multiple compression on any slowdown.
- International commercial uptake remains significantly slower than domestic adoption, limiting non-allied geographic expansion.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on November 2, 2026, targeting $2.18B consensus revenue.
- Pullback toward the $165 to $180 support zone for a safer risk-reward entry.
Latest
Palantir trades at $209.05 (88.9x forward P/E) at fresh 52-week highs following Q2 2026 revenue accelerating to $1.94B (+92.8% YoY) and GAAP net income reaching $1.06B. Operational hyper-growth is driven by 149% U.S. commercial expansion, 157% NRR, and total RPO reaching $4.9B. Up 60.8% over three months and trading slightly above the $203.35 mean target, valuation is stretched ahead of Q3 earnings on November 2, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $447.0B · revenue growth +92.8% year over year · gross margin 84.8% · net margin 49.0% · forward P/E 79.1 · next earnings Nov 2, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Goldman Sachs, Buy: $230 target (October 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- Barclays, Overweight: $265 target (October 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- UBS, Buy: $250 target (September 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Palantir partners with Lockheed Martin — AI software layer. Palantir partners with the primes to modernize the software inside their platforms.
- Palantir supplies Governments — Government AI software (about $3.0B a year). Government work is over half of Palantir’s revenue, with commercial the faster-growing half.
- Anthropic partners with Palantir — Claude via Palantir (gov). Palantir distributes Claude into classified government environments — moat meets model.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 3 editions on 3 days.
- Sep 2, 2026: After a few rough days, tech caught a bid, and our ASTS long finally went vertical
- Aug 5, 2026: Greed is officially back, and Palantir’s AI numbers are fueling our conviction in tech
- Aug 4, 2026: Geopolitics got chill, oil dropped hard, and our tech plays launched the S&P to new heights