Oklo (OKLO)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Sam Altman-backed small modular reactor startup selling power (not reactors) straight to datacenter customers — first units targeted late this decade.
In short: Small modular fission reactors. Category: Advanced Nuclear Fission Developer.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $52.77, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 100% analyst leg $52.77 (4 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount). 1 analyst target has no linked source and is shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 34 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 10 of 32
- Margin power: 5 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 5 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 10 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 3 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 11, 2026
The thesis
- Build-own-operate model captures recurring long-term power generation margins directly from hyperscale datacenters.
- Substantial liquidity cushion of $3.0B funds extensive NRC licensing runway and reactor development.
- Groves site delivery validates project execution speed ahead of commercial Aurora deployment.
Risks
- Quarterly cash burn widened to $141.7M with $94.1M capex ahead of 2028 commercialization.
- Customer commitments remain non-binding framework agreements rather than contracted GAAP revenue backlog.
- Regulatory licensing through the NRC remains a multi-year binary hurdle without guaranteed approval.
What we're watching
- Combined License Application submission and NRC review milestones for Idaho National Laboratory Aurora.
- Conversion of hyperscaler framework agreements into binding long-term power purchase contracts.
- Support around 52-week low of $33.70 and cash burn trajectory through Q3 2026.
Latest
OKLO trades at $34.70 near its 52-week low of $33.70, down 76% over the past year amid sector-wide SMR multiple compression. Second-quarter 2026 results reflected initial engineering revenue of $1.21M alongside surging quarterly capex of $94.1M and free cash burn of $141.7M. Wall Street targets have compressed with UBS cutting to $41, while a new $1B ATM facility supplements Oklo's $3.0B balance sheet.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $5.2B.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Piper Sandler, Overweight: $55 target (October 2026). Source: investing.com
- Truist Securities, Hold: $51 target (August 2026). Source: investing.com
- Citigroup, Neutral: $57.50 target (August 2026). Source: chartmill.com
- Barclays, Overweight: $76 target (July 2026). Source: chartmill.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Cameco supplies Oklo — Fuel (future). Next-gen reactors will need enriched fuel supply chains that trace back to miners like Cameco.
- Oklo partners with Amazon — SMR pipeline (2028+). Hyperscalers are pre-booking small modular reactor capacity for the 2030 power gap.
- Oklo competes with NuScale Power — SMR designs. Two competing bets on who gets small reactors licensed, built, and sold first.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 2 editions on 2 days.
- Sep 17, 2026: Yields finally took a breath and crude backed off, giving our SK Hynix setup room to run on Intel rumors
- Aug 26, 2026: Smaller AI bets popped, crypto caught a bid, and now the whole market holds its breath for Nvidia