Newmont (NEM)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The world’s largest gold miner — a dozen tier-one mines across the Americas, Africa, and Australia, gushing cash at record gold prices.
In short: World's largest gold producer. Category: Global Gold Copper Producer. Sector: Basic Materials, Gold.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $126.04, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $126.04 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $163.62 (16.08× fwd EPS anchored to resources multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 69 out of 100 (Medium).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 17 of 32
- Margin power: 11 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 23 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 7 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 11, 2026
The thesis
- Net cash of $3.41B and $9.73B trailing FCF fuel aggressive buybacks and dividends.
- Modest 11.8x forward P/E provides valuation cushion backed by 33.4% net margins.
- Nevada JV settlement removes structural legal overhang, de-risking Tier-1 asset production profile.
Risks
- Sequential quarterly revenue declined 16.3% while Q2 earnings beat margin compressed to 5.7%.
- Senior peer AEM delivers superior 40% net margins and faster 35% revenue growth.
- Operating margins remain vulnerable to mining cost inflation and fluctuating realized bullion prices.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on October 22, 2026, tracking AISC and unit cost metrics.
- Share price stabilization above $115 support following recent pullback from 52-week highs.
- Realized gold and copper pricing trends protecting second-half operating cash flows.
Latest
Newmont trades at $117.84, consolidating below its 52-week high of $135.29 as Q2 revenue decelerated sequentially to $6.12B from Q1's $7.31B peak. The balance sheet carries a robust $3.41B net cash surplus ($9.01B cash vs. $5.60B total debt) with $9.73B in trailing free cash flow. Shares trade at an undemanding 11.8x forward P/E ahead of Q3 2026 earnings scheduled for October 22, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $125.0B · revenue growth +15.1% year over year · gross margin 68.0% · net margin 33.4% · forward P/E 11.7 · next earnings Oct 22, 2026.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Newmont supplies Central Banks & Investors — Gold (about $20.0B a year). Newmont’s ounces feed the strongest official-sector gold bid in half a century.
- Newmont partners with Wheaton Precious Metals — Streaming deals. Streamers like Wheaton finance miners upfront in exchange for discounted future metal — the sector’s shadow banking.
- Newmont competes with Agnico Eagle — Tier-one gold. The two ways to own big gold: Newmont’s scale vs Agnico’s discipline.