Moderna (MRNA)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Rebounding from the post-pandemic trough: mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) won FDA approval on August 5, 2026 (reversing an earlier refusal-to-file), alongside strong Phase 3 melanoma data for its individualized cancer vaccine (intismeran autogene) co-developed with Merck.
Outlook: A deep cash pile and expanding commercial pipeline (mRESVIA, mFLUSIVA) support the multi-year turnaround, even as HHS contract realignments and vaccine policy scrutiny demand clinical precision.
In short: mRNA therapeutics and vaccine platform. Category: mRNA Vaccines & Oncology Biotechnology. Sector: Healthcare, Biotechnology.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $93.53, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 100% analyst leg $93.53 (5 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + factor model can't price this profile (below its floor) — analyst leg only.
G-Street Score: 30 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 7 of 32
- Margin power: 3 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 3 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 11 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 5 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 17, 2026
The thesis
- Phase 3 INTerpath melanoma success and mFLUSIVA approvals validate oncology and respiratory pipelines.
- Robust $5.14B cash balance provides multi-year operational runway for pivotal clinical programs.
Risks
- Quarterly revenue collapsed sequentially from $1.02B to $143M, worsening TTM net losses to -$3.15B.
- Gross margins of -66% severely trail profitable large-cap pharmaceutical peers like LLY and MRK.
- Shares trade at a punitive ~76% premium above Wall Street's $123.61 consensus target.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on November 6, 2026, evaluating seasonal respiratory revenue and opex.
- Phase 3 intismeran oncology regulatory submissions and FDA review timelines heading into 2027.
- Commercial uptake of mFLUSIVA and updated COVID-19 booster doses during fall 2026 season.
Latest
Shares trade near $218 after a meteoric +639% YTD rally, hovering at an extreme 76% premium over Wall Street's $123.61 mean target. Operational metrics continue to reflect a severe post-COVID hangover, as quarterly revenue decelerated sequentially from $1.02B in 3Q25 to $143M in 2Q26, expanding TTM net losses to -$3.15B. Sell-side sentiment remains cautious despite recent target lifts, with Goldman Sachs raising to $137 (Neutral), Morgan Stanley at $95 (Equal-Weight), and Citigroup maintaining a Sell at $80.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $87.0B · revenue growth +2.1% year over year · gross margin -66.0% · net margin -141.4% · next earnings Nov 6, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Goldman Sachs, Neutral: $137 target (October 2026). Source: gurufocus.com
- Morgan Stanley, Equal-Weight: $95 target (October 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Citigroup, Sell: $80 target (September 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Barclays, Equal-Weight: $125 target (August 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- JPMorgan, Underweight: $77 target (August 2026). Source: benzinga.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Moderna competes with BioNTech — mRNA survivors. The two mRNA pioneers navigating post-pandemic commercial realities, diversified oncology pipelines, and shifting vaccine policy.
- Merck partners with Moderna — Cancer-vaccine bet. Merck co-develops Moderna's individualized neoantigen therapy (intismeran autogene / mRNA-4157) with Keytruda in Phase 3 melanoma and NSCLC.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 2 editions on 2 days.
- Sep 2, 2026: Bond yields are showing no mercy, making tech sweat, but our biotech hero is having a moment
- Sep 1, 2026: Crude's over $90, yields decided to join, and our growth tech is suddenly feeling quite exposed