Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
First private company to soft-land on the Moon — flying NASA cargo missions and building lunar communications infrastructure.
In short: Lunar delivery and satellite manufacturing. Category: Commercial Space Infrastructure. Sector: Industrials, Aerospace & Defense.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $26.68, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $26.68 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $32.34 (12.6× sales vs growth band) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 51 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 3 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 8 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 8 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 4 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 11, 2026
The thesis
- Contracted backlog of $1.8B provides high revenue visibility toward $900M–$1.0B full-year guidance.
- Lanteris integration expands prime contractor scale across civil and national security satellite programs.
- Upcoming launch manifests for CLPS lunar landers and Altus constellation offer strong operational catalysts.
Risks
- Accelerating quarterly cash burn (-$81.2M Q2 FCF) threatens liquidity and elevates dilution risk.
- Severe Q2 EPS miss demonstrates lagging operational leverage despite rapid acquired revenue growth.
- Only $814.7M of the $1.8B backlog is firm RPO, leaving revenue conversion vulnerable to delays.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings print on November 10, 2026, focused on FCF burn and adjusted EBITDA.
- Execution and launch readiness milestones for IM-3 and Altus satellite deployments in 2027.
- Key support testing near $10–$12 after breaking below the $15 consolidation range.
Latest
LUNR trades at $13.19, continuing its decline toward its 52-week low ($7.78) despite Q2 revenue surging to $203.4M following the Lanteris acquisition. While contracted backlog reached $1.8B ($814.7M firm RPO) and FY26 revenue guidance remains $900M–$1.0B, operational cash burn accelerated sharply with Q2 free cash flow of -$81.2M. A steep Q2 EPS miss of -$0.16 against -$0.07 expected and $481.4M in total debt heighten balance sheet dilution concerns ahead of Q3 earnings.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $1.7B · revenue growth +309.8% year over year · gross margin 16.3% · net margin -26.6% · next earnings Nov 10, 2026.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- SpaceX supplies Intuitive Machines — Falcon 9 rides. Intuitive Machines’ lunar landers launch on Falcon 9.
- Redwire supplies Intuitive Machines — Spacecraft components. Redwire-class components — solar arrays, cameras — fly on landers like Intuitive Machines’.
- Intuitive Machines supplies Governments — NASA lunar missions (about $300M a year). NASA’s commercial lunar program is effectively Intuitive Machines’ revenue base.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 1 edition on 1 day.
- Aug 12, 2026: CPI read the room, and our AI-powered tech just got cleared for serious altitude