JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The center of the map: the largest bank in America by every measure — deposits, card issuing, investment-banking fees, and profit — with a "fortress balance sheet" that turned every crisis of the last twenty years into a share-gain opportunity, from Bear Stearns and WaMu to First Republic.
Why it matters: The bank everyone else on this map is measured against: the rivals want its wallet share, the rails and card networks want its volume, the shadow banks want its loan book, and the neobanks want its depositors.
Outlook: Record net interest income, the #1 investment-banking wallet share, and a card franchise refreshed by the Sapphire Reserve relaunch. Management keeps guiding conservatively while investing ~$18B a year in technology, launching the JPMD deposit token on public blockchains, and preparing the succession from Jamie Dimon.
In short: Global banking and financial services. Category: Mega-cap Diversified Bank. Sector: Financial Services, Banks - Diversified.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $328.35, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: high).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $328.35 (3 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $414.15 (16.24× fwd EPS anchored to financials multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street. 2 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 40 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 10 of 32
- Margin power: 1 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 5 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 14 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 3 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 7 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 14, 2026
The thesis
- Peer-leading 34.6% net margin significantly outperforms BAC (30%) and WFC (27%).
- Scale advantages and fortress balance sheet continue to compound market share across diversified segments.
- Preliminary 2027 net interest income guidance of ~$107B indicates resilient asset-side compounding.
Risks
- Q3 2026 earnings missed consensus by 3.2% amid sequential top-line deceleration.
- Valuation of 13.2x forward P/E trades at a noticeable premium to BAC and WFC.
- Elevated operating expenses projected near $107.5B and deposit repricing constrain near-term operating leverage.
What we're watching
- Q4 2026 earnings release scheduled for January 14, 2027.
- Management execution against full-year FY2026 non-interest expense guidance near $107.5B.
- Key technical price support along the $325 to $330 level.
Latest
JPM trades at $335.28 (13.2x forward P/E) following a Q3 2026 earnings miss ($5.75 vs. $5.94 estimate) that interrupted consecutive quarters of positive beats. Revenue decelerated sequentially to $50.17B from $57.35B in Q2, though franchise scale delivered $64.5B in trailing net income. Preliminary 2027 net interest income guidance of ~$107B excluding markets reinforces durable balance sheet power despite elevated operating expenses.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $902.2B · revenue growth +10.2% year over year · gross margin 0.0% · net margin 34.6% · forward P/E 13.3 · next earnings Jan 14, 2027.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Morgan Stanley, Equal-Weight: $377 target (October 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Wells Fargo, Overweight: $390 target (August 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Robert W. Baird, Neutral: $312 target (October 2026). Source: benzinga.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- The Depositors supplies JPMorgan Chase — ~$2.5T of deposits. The largest deposit franchise in America — the cheap funding under the fortress balance sheet.
- JPMorgan Chase competes with Bank of America — The deposit crown. The two largest consumer banks in America fighting branch by branch for the same deposits, cards, and wealth clients.
- JPMorgan Chase competes with Wells Fargo — Post-asset-cap growth. With the cap gone, Wells is rebuilding cards and investment banking — the businesses where Chase pulled furthest ahead.
- JPMorgan Chase competes with Citigroup — The global wallet. Treasury services, trade finance, and cross-border payments for multinationals — Citi’s crown jewel and JPMorgan’s fastest-growing fee line.
- Goldman Sachs competes with JPMorgan Chase — The league tables. M&A advisory, underwriting, and trading — JPMorgan leads on total fees, Goldman on advisory.
- Goldman Sachs partners with JPMorgan Chase — Apple Card handoff. Goldman’s retreat from consumer lending ends with JPMorgan taking over the Apple Card program — the biggest co-brand portfolio in the market.
- Morgan Stanley competes with JPMorgan Chase — Wealth & markets. Morgan Stanley’s wealth machine vs J.P. Morgan’s private bank and self-directed push, plus the two biggest trading floors on the street.
- American Express competes with JPMorgan Chase — Sapphire vs Platinum. The premium-card arms race: Chase Sapphire Reserve and Amex Platinum both relaunched with higher fees and richer perks for the same affluent spender.
- Capital One competes with JPMorgan Chase — #1 vs #2 in cards. Post-Discover, Capital One is the largest US card lender by loans and Chase the largest by spend — the two poles of the card market.
- Visa supplies JPMorgan Chase — Card rails. JPMorgan Chase is Visa’s largest issuer; Chase cards route the bulk of their volume across the Visa network.
- Blackstone competes with JPMorgan Chase — Private credit vs the loan book. Every leveraged loan Blackstone’s funds write is one a bank syndicate didn’t — JPMorgan answered with its own $50B direct-lending program.
- Circle competes with JPMorgan Chase — Stablecoins vs deposits. USDC balances are deposits that left the banking system; JPMD, JPMorgan’s tokenized deposit, is the counterattack.
- SoFi competes with JPMorgan Chase — The digital-first customer. SoFi wants the high-earning young professional Chase spent a decade courting with Sapphire.
- JPMorgan Chase supplies Main Street — Net interest income (about $95.0B a year). Research estimate: roughly half of JPMorgan’s revenue is the spread earned on loans and securities funded by deposits.
- JPMorgan Chase supplies Wall Street Clients — Deals, trading & treasury (about $70.0B a year). Research estimate: the Commercial & Investment Bank — the largest fee and markets franchise on Wall Street.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 3 editions on 3 days.
- Oct 13, 2026: Banks stumbled through their Q3 kickoff, leaving our MU to absorb a sudden DRAM warning from China
- Oct 12, 2026: The bond market took the holiday off, leaving equities alone to overthink tomorrow's bank earnings
- Jun 17, 2026: An Iran deal just tanked oil, Lisa Su took profits on the AI rally, and suddenly we're all pretending we bought JPMorgan for the cyclical rotation