Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Owner of the NYSE and a data empire — its $2B Polymarket stake is a bet that event-market odds become a financial data layer the whole industry pays for.
In short: Financial exchanges, data, and software. Category: Global Exchange & Data Infrastructure. Sector: Financial Services, Financial Data & Stock Exchanges.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $153.46, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: high).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $161.53 (4 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $134.63 (15.15× fwd EPS anchored to financials multiples).
G-Street Score: 59 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 10 of 32
- Margin power: 12 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 18 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 6 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 7 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 18, 2026
The thesis
- NYSE and global energy exchange franchises generate durable pricing power and 38% net margins.
- Recurring data subscriptions and fixed-income software provide resilient downside protection across market cycles.
- Tokenized 24/7 equities trading and private credit data unlock new high-margin distribution streams.
Risks
- Top-line revenue growth of 4.8% lags exchange and trading peers MS, SCHW, and HOOD.
- Substantial $20.5 billion debt and pending MarketAxess buyout elevate leverage to 3.4x peak.
- Mortgage technology transaction volumes remain pressured by persistently restrictive long-term interest rates.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release and operating expense trajectory scheduled for October 29, 2026.
- Regulatory review milestones and integration timeline for the $6 billion MarketAxess cash acquisition.
- Mortgage Technology segment transaction volume inflection amid shifting mortgage rate conditions.
Latest
ICE trades at $161.56, gaining 6.2% over two weeks as it rebounds ahead of Q3 2026 earnings on October 29 after four consecutive quarterly EPS beats. Q2 net revenue increased 4.8% year-over-year to $2.67 billion, anchored by record recurring subscription revenue of $1.40 billion offsetting subdued mortgage origination activity. Balance sheet leverage remains a key investor focal point, with $20.5 billion in total debt and pro-forma leverage expected to peak at 3.4x following the pending $6.0 billion MarketAxess acquisition.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $90.7B · revenue growth +4.8% year over year · gross margin 100.0% · net margin 38.2% · forward P/E 18.2 · next earnings Oct 29, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Morgan Stanley, Equal-Weight: $173 target (October 2026). Source: www.marketbeat.com
- Barclays, Overweight: $189 target (October 2026). Source: www.perplexity.ai
- TD Cowen, Hold: $167 target (October 2026). Source: www.perplexity.ai
- Deutsche Bank, Hold: $174 target (October 2026). Source: www.perplexity.ai
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Intercontinental Exchange partners with Polymarket — $2B stake + data rights. ICE completed a $2B investment and took global distribution rights to Polymarket’s event data — the bet is odds-as-data, not trading fees.