Howmet Aerospace (HWM)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Engineered metal components — turbine blades, fasteners, structures — inside nearly every western military and commercial aircraft.
In short: Engineered aerospace castings and fasteners. Category: Aerospace Precision Components Supplier. Sector: Industrials, Aerospace & Defense.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $274.96, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $307.56 (4 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $198.89 (30.58× fwd EPS anchored to aerospace-defense multiples) — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced. 1 analyst target has no linked source and is shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 67 out of 100 (Medium).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 25 of 32
- Margin power: 7 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 5 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 22 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 3 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 15, 2026
The thesis
- Sequential revenue acceleration to 24.1% YoY driven by aero spares and gas turbines.
- Proprietary single-crystal airfoil castings command 36.0% gross margins and unmatched pricing power.
- Consistent execution delivered four straight beat-and-raise quarters across both revenue and EPS.
Risks
- Rich 33.5x forward P/E trades at a large premium to prime defense peers.
- Boeing and Airbus assembly delays or build-rate bottlenecks could crimp OEM delivery volumes.
- Emerging customer in-sourcing initiatives in industrial gas turbine blades may threaten long-term pricing.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on October 29, 2026, focusing on 2027 delivery guidance.
- Key technical price support holding above the $215–$220 range following the recent sell-off.
- Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320 narrowbody monthly delivery and production ramp milestones.
Latest
HWM trades at $217.54, pulling back roughly 30% from its $310 peak as multiple contraction offsets standout operational delivery. Top-line growth accelerated sequentially to 24.1% YoY in Q2 ($2.55B), powered by commercial engine spares and surging power-generation gas turbine demand. Management raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $5.23–$5.31 ahead of Q3 earnings on October 29, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $88.1B · revenue growth +24.1% year over year · gross margin 36.0% · net margin 20.5% · forward P/E 34.0 · next earnings Oct 29, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Bernstein, Outperform: $298 target (October 2026). Source: investing.com
- JPMorgan, Overweight: $350 target (October 2026). Source: investing.com
- Guggenheim, Buy: $350 target (September 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- Susquehanna, Positive: $340 target (August 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Howmet Aerospace supplies RTX (Raytheon) — Engine components (about $2.0B a year). Howmet blades and structures go into Pratt & Whitney engines.
- Howmet Aerospace supplies Lockheed Martin — Airframe parts (about $1.0B a year). F-35 airframes are full of Howmet-engineered metal.