Robinhood (HOOD)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The retail super-app: zero-commission stocks, the most-gamified options flow in the market, crypto, IRAs with match, and now event contracts — every product line aimed at holding the whole paycheck.
Why it matters: The center of gravity: every other node on this map is either losing customers to Robinhood, supplying its rails, or racing it to the next thing retail will trade.
Outlook: Revenue up 32% with 42% net margins. Event contracts are the breakout: 16B+ contracts traded this year and ~$147M of event revenue in a single quarter, riding Kalshi rails while owning its own exchange license for the day it cuts them loose.
In short: Retail trading and financial super-app. Category: Retail Brokerage & Fintech Platform. Sector: Financial Services, Capital Markets.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $97.31, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $123.63 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $71 (20.72× fwd EPS anchored to financials multiples) — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 68 out of 100 (Medium).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 27 of 32
- Margin power: 12 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 17 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 4 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 2 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 15, 2026
The thesis
- Leading retail engagement drives sector-best 32.3% revenue growth and 42.0% net margins.
- Expansion into event contracts, AI trading agents, and 24/7 markets broadens fee monetization.
- Net deposit acceleration and Gold subscriber momentum establish durable platform operating leverage.
Risks
- Forward P/E of 29.5x commands a steep valuation premium over peer SCHW's 12.2x.
- Crypto trading contractions and episodic retail volume swings cause quarterly revenue lumpiness.
- Regulatory scrutiny across prediction markets, tokenization, and weekend trading could constrain growth.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release and volume updates on October 27, 2026.
- Support defense at the critical $100 level following recent session breakdown.
- Monetization ramp from AI trading agents and prediction market volume share.
Latest
HOOD dropped 8.5% to $101.08, testing key psychological support near $100 after pulling back from 52-week highs of $150.47. Top-line trajectory rebounded sharply in Q2 2026 to $1.31B (+32.3% YoY) following a soft Q1, with EPS beating estimates by 43.7% on resilient options and event contract volumes. At 29.5x forward P/E, the stock trades at an elevated multiple relative to peers SCHW (12.2x) and IBKR (25.8x) ahead of Q3 earnings on October 27, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $88.9B · revenue growth +32.3% year over year · gross margin 91.9% · net margin 42.0% · forward P/E 28.8 · next earnings Oct 27, 2026.
Decision history
- Jul 15, 2026 — Unpinned at $113.45. Unpinned — back under AI management
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Robinhood competes with Charles Schwab — Brokerage accounts & cash. Gold subscriptions, IRA matches, and transfer bonuses — Robinhood’s whole retention stack is aimed at pulling accounts out of Schwab’s $10T custody empire.
- Robinhood competes with eToro — Social retail trading. Same first-time trader, different continent of origin — eToro’s copy-trading vs Robinhood’s feed.
- Robinhood competes with SoFi — The money super-app. Both want the entire paycheck — SoFi attacks from banking and lending, Robinhood from trading.
- Robinhood competes with Interactive Brokers — Options & active traders. The graduation path: Robinhood mints options traders, Interactive Brokers courts them once they get serious — and IBKR’s ForecastEx fights Robinhood in event contracts too.
- Robinhood competes with Webull — Zero-commission options. Webull runs the closest copy of the Robinhood playbook — same free options trades, same first-account customer.
- Robinhood competes with Coinbase — Retail crypto. Robinhood’s crypto arm and Bitstamp acquisition undercut Coinbase’s fees on the same coins — the sharpest head-to-head on the map.
- Robinhood competes with DraftKings — Sports: contracts vs bets. Same game, same wallet, different regulator: Robinhood’s CFTC sports contracts work in all 50 states while DraftKings’ sportsbook license stops at state lines.
- Morgan Stanley competes with Robinhood — E*Trade vs the kids. Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade is the brokerage the last generation switched to — Robinhood is where their kids opened accounts.
- Kalshi partners with Robinhood — Event-contract rails (2¢ split). Robinhood’s prediction markets run on Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated exchange, splitting a 2¢-per-contract fee — and Robinhood alone drives over half of Kalshi’s volume, even while it owns an exchange license of its own.
- Cboe Global Markets supplies Robinhood — Options exchange rails. The zero-DTE options boom Robinhood gamified ultimately prints on Cboe’s exchanges.
- BlackRock supplies Robinhood — The ETFs retail buys. iShares ETFs fill Robinhood retirement accounts — BlackRock collects its fee no matter which app wins.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 8 editions on 8 days.
- Aug 24, 2026: Eyes on Nvidia and the Fed's big stage, while our rare earth plays and a surging Robinhood enjoyed the quiet before the storm
- Aug 21, 2026: Treasury buys eased yields, sparking our copper and crypto plays, yet chips are holding their breath for earnings
- Jun 18, 2026: A historic peace deal with Iran just bailed us out of yesterday's hawkish Fed, Meta is sliding on talent exits, and Robinhood is firing a tenth of its staff just to catch a bid
- Jun 17, 2026: Warsh teased a rate hike, Meta is sweating its massive AI bill, and the only thing saving our screens is Robinhood firing people
- Jun 5, 2026: Broadcom beat but Wall Street wanted perfection, Micron lost its trillion-dollar crown in the crossfire, and Robinhood is surging while we sweat the morning jobs print
- Jun 1, 2026: Oil spiked on weekend airstrikes, Dell overpowered the macro dread, and somehow Robinhood is catching an AI bid while we hold our breath for Broadcom
- May 31, 2026: The Dow casually cleared 51k, Robinhood is somehow an AI trade now, and we are all staring at Wednesday's Broadcom print like the whole rally depends on it
- May 29, 2026: Peace rumors sank oil, Robinhood found religion in AI, and we're all staring at Broadcom to tell us if these hardware multiples are actually real