Flutter (FanDuel) (FLUT)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
FanDuel’s parent — the other half of the sportsbook duopoly, answering the event-contract threat through a prediction-markets joint venture with CME.
In short: Digital sports betting and gaming. Category: Global Sportsbook & iGaming Leader. Sector: Consumer Cyclical, Gambling.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $97.56, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $97.56 (3 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount, clamped to the full-street range) + 30% GainStreet factor value $115.38 (16.49× fwd EPS anchored to consumer-cyclical multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street.
G-Street Score: 32 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 7 of 32
- Margin power: 4 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 8 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 2 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 18, 2026
The thesis
- FanDuel holds dominant U.S. online sports betting and iGaming gross gaming revenue share.
- Sole U.S. listing and prediction-market tie-ups provide low-CAC customer acquisition funnels.
- Forward P/E compressed to 10.8× offers substantial re-rating potential if marketing spend normalizes.
Risks
- Revenue growth decelerated to 3.3% YoY while Q2 earnings missed consensus estimates.
- Hefty $12.58B debt burden exposes earnings to rising state gaming tax rates.
- Lags financial peer CME in margins (-4.4% vs 63%) and consistent free cash flow conversion.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on November 4, 2026, focusing on U.S. profitability.
- Defense of critical support at the 52-week low of $72.56.
- State-level online gaming tax legislative updates and prediction-market exchange regulatory traction.
Latest
FLUT trades at $75.60, hovering near its 52-week low of $72.56 down 64.8% YTD following a Q2 EPS miss ($0.49 vs. $0.55) that snapped a multi-quarter beat streak. Top-line growth has decelerated sharply to 3.3% YoY, while state gaming tax hikes, heavy promotional spending, and an aggressive acquisition pipeline keep TTM net margins negative at -4.4% against $12.58B in debt. Wall Street continues to trim price objectives into the $91–$110 corridor in October 2026 while broadly retaining constructive ratings.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $13.1B · revenue growth +3.3% year over year · gross margin 42.5% · net margin -4.4% · forward P/E 10.8 · next earnings Nov 4, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Wedbush, Outperform: $110 target (October 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- BTIG Research, Buy: $110 target (October 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- Susquehanna, Positive: $100 target (October 2026). Source: markets.businessinsider.com
- Citizens, Market Outperform: $129 target (October 2026). Source: gurufocus.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- CME Group partners with Flutter (FanDuel) — FanDuel Predicts JV. FanDuel distributes CME event contracts — the old derivatives lord and the sportsbook teaming up against Kalshi.
- DraftKings competes with Flutter (FanDuel) — US sportsbook duopoly. FanDuel and DraftKings split most of US online sports betting — and are now racing each other into prediction markets by different doors.