Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The western world’s biggest copper producer, anchored by the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia — the default way to own the electrification trade.
In short: Mines copper, gold, and molybdenum. Category: Global Copper & Gold Miner. Sector: Basic Materials, Copper.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $66.68, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $75.93 (4 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $45.1 (10.42× fwd EPS anchored to resources multiples) — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced.
G-Street Score: 49 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 10 of 32
- Margin power: 4 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 16 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 8 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 18, 2026
The thesis
- Structural multi-decade demand tailwinds from global electrification, grid expansion, and AI data centers.
- Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats demonstrate disciplined cost execution and sequential revenue recovery.
- Premier long-life tier-one assets provide sustained operating cash flow to support balance-sheet stability.
Risks
- High 1.39 beta leaves shares acutely vulnerable to cyclical copper pullbacks and macro slowdowns.
- Net margins of 11.4% trail peer SCCO's 36%, reflecting higher operating and smelting costs.
- Indonesian Grasberg smelting ramp-up and export regulations present persistent geopolitical and operational overhangs.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on October 27, 2026, targeting $7.40B consensus revenue.
- Technical support at $65.00 versus resistance near the 52-week high of $80.24.
- Progress on Grasberg downstream smelter commercial capacity and Indonesian export license extensions.
Latest
FCX trades at $69.54, pulling back 13% from its 52-week high of $80.24 ahead of Q3 earnings. Revenue has sequentially rebounded over two consecutive quarters to $7.03B with four straight EPS beats, even as YoY top-line growth sits at -7.3%. Trading at 16.1× forward earnings and 34.3× trailing, valuation leaves narrow margin of safety against higher-margin peers.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $99.9B · revenue growth -7.3% year over year · gross margin 38.3% · net margin 11.4% · forward P/E 16.1 · next earnings Oct 27, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- JPMorgan, Overweight: $92 target (October 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Morgan Stanley, Equal Weight: $75 target (October 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- Bank of America, Buy: $80 target (July 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Goldman Sachs, Buy: $74 target (July 2026). Source: benzinga.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Freeport-McMoRan supplies Industry & Defense — Copper cathode (about $25.0B a year). Grasberg’s output flows into grids, EVs, and the copper-hungry AI datacenter buildout.
- Freeport-McMoRan competes with Southern Copper — Copper crown. Scale vs cost: Freeport’s volume against Southern Copper’s margins.