CME Group (CME)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The world’s biggest derivatives exchange — futures on everything from rates to cattle, 63% net margins, and now event contracts distributed through FanDuel.
In short: Futures and options exchange operator. Category: Global Derivatives Exchange Operator. Sector: Financial Services, Financial Data & Stock Exchanges.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $230.39, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $249.22 (4 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $186.44 (14.34× fwd EPS anchored to financials multiples). 1 analyst target has no linked source and is shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 54 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 7 of 32
- Margin power: 12 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 5 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 18 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 7 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 17, 2026
The thesis
- Unmatched global derivatives clearing moat yielding peer-leading 63% net profit margins.
- Robust $4.2B annual free cash flow funds substantial regular and annual variable special dividends.
- Market data recurring revenue expanded 20% year-over-year to a record $238M in Q2.
Risks
- Trading at 22.6x forward earnings leaves minimal margin of safety against mean analyst consensus.
- Top-line revenue decelerated sequentially from Q1, growing just 0.8% year-over-year in Q2.
- FanDuel shifted event-contract volume to Crypto.com and secured an FCM license, crimping upside.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on October 21, 2026, targeting $1.71B consensus revenue.
- September ADV rebound sustainability after trading volume reached 31.8M contracts, up 22% year-over-year.
- Share price resistance near the $293 consensus target and $329 52-week peak.
Latest
CME trades at $293.87, up 8.4% over the past month and pushing slightly above Wall Street's $292.94 mean target ahead of Q3 earnings on October 21, 2026. Trading momentum rebounded sharply in September with ADV jumping 22% YoY to 31.8M contracts, offsetting Q2's sluggish 0.8% top-line growth. While operating discipline delivers an elite 63.4% net margin and $4.2B in trailing FCF, valuation at 22.6x forward earnings limits immediate upside.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $105.7B · revenue growth +0.8% year over year · gross margin 100.0% · net margin 63.4% · forward P/E 22.6 · next earnings Oct 21, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Morgan Stanley, Overweight: $337 target (October 2026). Source: stockanalysis.com
- Barclays, Equal Weight: $281 target (October 2026). Source: cnn.com
- Goldman Sachs, Sell: $254 target (October 2026). Source: stockanalysis.com
- Bank of America, Underperform: $218 target (October 2026). Source: stockanalysis.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- CME Group partners with Flutter (FanDuel) — FanDuel Predicts JV. FanDuel distributes CME event contracts — the old derivatives lord and the sportsbook teaming up against Kalshi.