Constellation Energy (CEG)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Operates America’s largest nuclear fleet — including the Three Mile Island restart it sold to Microsoft as a 20-year power deal.
In short: Operates largest US nuclear fleet. Category: Clean Power Nuclear Infrastructure. Sector: Utilities, Utilities - Independent Power Producers.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $280.05, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $310.57 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $249.52 (18.77× fwd EPS anchored to power multiples). 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 44 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 22 of 32
- Margin power: 0 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 10 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 0 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 6 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 18, 2026
The thesis
- Unmatched merchant nuclear capacity captures premium pricing in multi-decade hyperscaler clean energy agreements.
- Calpine acquisition and Crane nuclear restart significantly expand contracted baseload generation capacity.
- Robust $11.86B fixed RPO backlog provides strong multi-year revenue visibility.
Risks
- Sequential revenue fell 32.5% in Q2 while heavy capex compressed trailing FCF.
- Elevated $24.7B debt load creates balance sheet pressure pending required asset divestitures.
- FERC reviews and grid interconnect rules could delay co-located data center economics.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release on November 9, 2026, targeting $9.29B consensus revenue.
- Closing execution on $5.86B in generation asset divestitures to LS Power.
- FERC and regional grid operator final rulings on large co-located loads.
Latest
Shares slipped to $271.37, down 7.7% over the past week as post-Calpine balance sheet leverage and broader market pullbacks offset long-term nuclear power pacts with Google and Microsoft. Second-quarter revenue contracted 32.5% sequentially to $7.50B, with elevated capex of $1.25B pushing quarterly free cash flow to -$118M amid $24.7B in total debt. Management remains focused on closing $5.86B in generation asset divestitures to LS Power to de-lever before Q3 earnings on November 9, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $96.1B · revenue growth +23.0% year over year · gross margin 22.1% · net margin 11.1% · forward P/E 20.4 · next earnings Nov 9, 2026.
Decision history
- Aug 13, 2026 — Sold at $278.68: 0.0% since entry (Cut). Unwinding the robot's same-day rebuy. We booked CEG at +11% this morning on purpose: 8% to value, and we already own the AI-power trade through CCJ and VST. The seat goes back to TransDigm.
- Aug 12, 2026 — Moved to Buy Zone at $278.68. Largest US nuclear operator directly monetizing hyperscaler AI baseload demand via long-term power contracts.
- Aug 12, 2026 — Sold at $280.26: +11.0% since entry (Target hit). Booking it. Up 10% and only 8% left to our value — the thinnest on the slate — while CCJ and VST already carry the AI-power trade. We take the win and free the seat.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Cameco supplies Constellation Energy — Uranium fuel (about $1.0B a year). Cameco supplies the uranium and (via Westinghouse) fuel services that keep the nuclear fleet running.
- Constellation Energy supplies Microsoft — Nuclear PPA (TMI restart) (about $1.0B a year). Constellation restarted Three Mile Island Unit 1 on a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft.
- Constellation Energy competes with Vistra — Power markets. The two biggest independent power producers fight for the same datacenter PPAs.