Cameco (CCJ)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
One of the world’s largest uranium miners and a co-owner of Westinghouse — the raw fuel end of the nuclear revival.
In short: Uranium mining, conversion, and services. Category: Large-Cap Nuclear Fuel & Mining. Sector: Energy, Uranium.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $112.13, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 100% analyst leg $112.13 (4 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + factor model can't price this profile (below its floor) — analyst leg only. 1 analyst target has no linked source and is shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 38 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 7 of 32
- Margin power: 4 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 6 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 14 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 2 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 17, 2026
The thesis
- Multi-year utility contracts secure 28M lbs annually through 2030 with market-related upside pricing.
- 49% Westinghouse stake provides high-margin exposure to reactor servicing and global nuclear deployments.
- Tier-one low-cost Saskatchewan assets position Cameco to leverage secular nuclear fuel demand.
Risks
- Revenue contracted 7.2% YoY alongside recurrent delivery lumpiness and severe quarterly earnings misses.
- A 31.4x forward P/E leaves valuation vulnerable while peer GEV delivers 22% growth.
- Supply chain bottlenecks and mine maintenance drive up unit costs, squeezing operating margins.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings print and delivery schedule updates on October 30, 2026.
- Share price defense above 52-week low ($77.70) against Barclays' street-low $97 target.
- Realized uranium contract pricing and unit cash costs at Cigar Lake and McArthur River.
Latest
At $81.52, CCJ hovers near its 52-week low ($77.70) and 40% below highs ($135.24) following sequential revenue deceleration and a sharp Q2 EPS miss ($0.18 vs. $0.38). While long-term utility commitments (~28M lbs annually through 2030) and a 49% Westinghouse stake support secular nuclear tailwinds, near-term delivery lumpiness and unit cost inflation weigh on results. Trading at 31.4x forward earnings, CCJ demands patience ahead of Q3 earnings on October 30, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $35.5B · revenue growth -7.2% year over year · gross margin 35.1% · net margin 10.2% · forward P/E 31.4 · next earnings Oct 30, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Bank of America, Buy: $133.29 target (September 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- Truist Securities, Buy: $130 target (August 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Barclays, Equal-Weight: $97 target (August 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Goldman Sachs, Buy: $133 target (July 2026). Source: tipranks.com
Decision history
- Aug 23, 2026 — Sold at $102.51: +5.3% since entry (Cut). CCJ revenue contracted 7.2% YoY with lumpy deliveries and rich 176x PE, making room for higher-conviction AI infrastructure exposure in ANET.
- Aug 10, 2026 — Buy Zone → Holding at $97.31. Up 8.5% in a week since joining — at our $112 blended value the easy entry is gone. Holding the uranium supply-deficit thesis, not chasing the pop.
- Aug 9, 2026 — Moved to Buy Zone at $97.39. Structural uranium supply deficit and utility restocking make this the premier energy fuel pick.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Cameco supplies Constellation Energy — Uranium fuel (about $1.0B a year). Cameco supplies the uranium and (via Westinghouse) fuel services that keep the nuclear fleet running.
- Cameco supplies Oklo — Fuel (future). Next-gen reactors will need enriched fuel supply chains that trace back to miners like Cameco.