Blackstone (BX)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The largest alternative-asset manager on earth ($1.2T+ AUM) and the face of private credit: its funds now make the leveraged loans, real-estate loans, and asset-backed deals that used to sit on bank balance sheets — with none of the bank capital rules.
In short: Manages global alternative assets. Category: Alternative Asset Management Leader. Sector: Financial Services, Asset Management.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $128.72, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: medium).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $128.72 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $136.91 (18.49× fwd EPS anchored to financials multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 68 out of 100 (Medium).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 20 of 32
- Margin power: 13 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 5 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 22 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 4 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 4 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 13, 2026
The thesis
- Unmatched $1.35T AUM scale delivers resilient management fee revenue across credit and infrastructure.
- Consistent execution highlighted by four consecutive EPS beats and $5.5B in trailing cash flow.
- Secular expansion into private wealth and insurance channels provides long-term fee compounding.
Risks
- At 15.5x forward earnings, BX trades at a premium to peers GS and MS.
- Elevated interest rates depress real estate valuations and delay profitable private equity exits.
- Recent price target cuts across major brokers reflect slowing near-term transaction velocity.
What we're watching
- 3Q2026 earnings report and fee-earning AUM inflows scheduled for October 22, 2026.
- Technical price support holding above the 52-week low of $101.73.
- Net flows and redemption stabilization across retail flagships like BREIT and BCRED.
Latest
Blackstone trades at $114.78, down 27.4% over the past year and consolidating above its 52-week low of $101.73. Despite delivering four straight quarterly EPS beats and $5.49B in trailing FCF, broker target cuts in October reflect cautious fee realizations. At 15.5x forward earnings, valuation commands a notable premium over peers GS (12.4x) and MS (14.0x) ahead of 3Q2026 earnings on October 22, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $127.4B · revenue growth +28.6% year over year · gross margin 100.0% · net margin 22.7% · forward P/E 14.4 · next earnings Oct 22, 2026.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Blackstone competes with JPMorgan Chase — Private credit vs the loan book. Every leveraged loan Blackstone’s funds write is one a bank syndicate didn’t — JPMorgan answered with its own $50B direct-lending program.