Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Replacing Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo with a high-conviction Growth Portfolio: scaling the Cobenfy (KarXT) schizophrenia launch and co-funding an up to $11.1B Phase 3 alliance with BioNTech on pumitamig (BNT327 PD-L1xVEGF bispecific).
In short: Biopharmaceutical oncology and immunology developer. Category: Patent Cliff Value Pharma. Sector: Healthcare, Drug Manufacturers - General.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $60.38, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $60.38 (street consensus, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $112.63 (17.03× fwd EPS anchored to healthcare multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced. 5 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted; this value will not open a position until they are sourced.
G-Street Score: 43 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 7 of 32
- Margin power: 12 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 1 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 16 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 5 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 2 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 17, 2026
The thesis
- Consecutive EPS beats show commercial strength across newer growth drivers like Camzyos and Reblozyl.
- Discounted 9.0x forward P/E and ~4.2% dividend yield offer deep value downside cushion.
- Growth Portfolio momentum partially offsets legacy product declines ahead of key patent expirations.
Risks
- Eliquis and Opdivo patent cliffs later this decade threaten high-margin core revenue.
- High debt burden of $45.1B limits balance sheet flexibility for large-scale acquisitions.
- Top three drug distributors account for 85% of total gross revenues, driving concentration risk.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings release scheduled for October 29, 2026, targeting $12.73B consensus revenue.
- Clinical Phase 3 trial milestones for milvexian and commercial launch trajectory for Cobenfy.
- Support near the $57-$59 level following recent analyst target cuts and pipeline updates.
Latest
BMY trades at $59.75, down 4.9% over the past month as shares consolidate ahead of Q3 earnings on October 29. Operating fundamentals remain solid following four consecutive EPS beats, including a 27.7% Q2 earnings surprise and 5.7% YoY revenue growth. However, a compressed 9.0x forward P/E reflects wide Street divergence and deep ongoing discounts for impending late-decade Eliquis and Opdivo patent expirations.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $122.1B · revenue growth +5.7% year over year · gross margin 71.7% · net margin 18.9% · forward P/E 9.0 · next earnings Oct 29, 2026.
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Pfizer partners with Bristol Myers Squibb — Eliquis JV. The Eliquis alliance generates massive cash flow for both, but impending patent loss forces both to fund replacement pipelines.
- Bristol Myers Squibb partners with BioNTech — BNT327 bispecific. BMS committed up to $11.1B to co-develop pumitamig (BNT327), BioNTech's Phase 3 PD-L1xVEGF bispecific antibody.