Boeing (Defense, Space & Security) (BA)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The second-largest US defense contractor hiding inside a commercial jet maker: F-15EX, KC-46 tankers, MQ-25 Stingray drones, the T-7 trainer, satellites — and now the F-47, the Air Force’s sixth-generation fighter.
Why it matters: Won the F-47 over Lockheed in March 2025 — the biggest fighter award in a generation, and proof the prime tier is not a closed club.
Outlook: Defense revenue grew 14% to $27.2B in 2025 and the segment nearly broke even after a $5.4B loss in 2024; the fixed-price development programs (KC-46, T-7, Starliner) remain the swing factor.
In short: Commercial aircraft and defense systems. Category: Commercial Aerospace Defense Prime. Sector: Industrials, Aerospace & Defense.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $193.66, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $239.76 (3 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $86.09 (22.81× fwd EPS anchored to aerospace-defense multiples) — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced. 2 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 43 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 17 of 32
- Margin power: 0 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 8 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 11 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 3 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 4 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 15, 2026
The thesis
- Record $715B backlog and commercial duopoly secure visible multi-year aircraft delivery growth.
- Commercial delivery acceleration toward 47 monthly jets stabilizes operating cash flow.
- Major defense franchise wins including F/A-XX solidify long-term defense segment visibility.
Risks
- $48.4B debt load and 791% debt-to-equity severely constrain capital allocation flexibility.
- Persistent reach-forward charges on fixed-price defense contracts continuously depress operating margins.
- Forward P/E of 48.8x commands a steep turnaround premium over profitable peer RTX.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings on October 27, 2026, tracking free cash flow and margins.
- Technical defense of $176.77 52-week low support versus $200 overhead resistance.
- FAA certification timelines for the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants.
Latest
Boeing trades at $184.66, sliding near its 52-week low of $176.77 amid production constraints and wing assembly bottlenecks capping 737 MAX ramp targets. While Q3 commercial deliveries reached 161 aircraft and Q2 free cash flow inflected positive to $631M, core EPS missed consensus at -$0.76 on ongoing fixed-price defense charges. Balance-sheet leverage remains severe with $48.4B in debt and an elevated 48.8x forward P/E ahead of Q3 earnings on October 27, 2026.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $150.3B · revenue growth +8.0% year over year · gross margin 4.7% · net margin 2.6% · forward P/E 50.4 · next earnings Oct 27, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Bernstein, Outperform: $278 target (October 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- TD Cowen, Buy: $240 target (October 2026). Source: benzinga.com
- Jefferies, Buy: $265 target (September 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Boeing (Defense, Space & Security) competes with Lockheed Martin — Fighters: F-47 vs F-35. Boeing took the F-47 sixth-generation fighter from Lockheed in March 2025 — the two now split the Air Force’s fighter future.
- Boeing (Defense, Space & Security) supplies Governments — Tankers, fighters & space (about $27.0B a year). Defense is roughly a third of Boeing — the rest is commercial jets and services.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 1 edition on 1 day.
- Sep 29, 2026: Boeing tripped over another software bug, and now our Micron earnings have to carry the entire tech complex