AeroVironment (AVAV)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Switchblade loitering munitions and small drones — the battlefield-proven kit of the drone-war era.
In short: Unmanned aircraft & loitering munitions. Category: Defense Tech & Autonomous Systems. Sector: Industrials, Aerospace & Defense.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $171.05, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 70% analyst leg $202.46 (5 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 30% GainStreet factor value $97.77 (22.14× fwd EPS anchored to aerospace-defense multiples) — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced.
G-Street Score: 29 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 7 of 32
- Margin power: 3 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 8 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 11 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 0 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 0 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 13, 2026
The thesis
- Record $1.46B funded backlog and 1.4x book-to-bill secure visibility into full-year FY27 targets.
- Autonomous Systems grew 21% YoY driven by durable demand for Switchblade loitering munitions.
- Landmark awards including Army Titan counter-UAS and LOCUST lasers expand long-term multi-domain footprint.
Risks
- Top-line growth decelerated to 5.7%, trailing peers like PLTR (+93%) and RTX (+14%).
- Negative free cash flow persists alongside material weakness fallout from the terminated SCAR program.
- Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment contracted sharply, posting negative $8.9M adjusted EBITDA.
What we're watching
- Q2 FY27 earnings on December 2, 2026, for free cash flow inflection.
- Execution and delivery cadence on the $500M Army Titan counter-drone contract.
- Price defense at the $131.50 low and remediation of internal financial reporting weaknesses.
Latest
AVAV sits directly on its 52-week low at $131.51 (down 68% over one year) as top-line growth decelerated to 5.7% YoY amid overhang from restated SCAR program impairments. Core Autonomous Systems expanded 21% YoY and funded backlog reached a record $1.46B, but GAAP net losses continue from BlueHalo amortization. Free cash flow remained negative (-$36M in Q1 FY27) as facility capital expenditures and SCDE segment operating losses offset operating cash flows.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $6.2B · revenue growth +5.7% year over year · gross margin 26.5% · net margin -10.1% · forward P/E 27.6 · next earnings Dec 2, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Goldman Sachs, Buy: $285 target (September 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- KeyBanc, Buy: $220 target (September 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- JPMorgan, Overweight: $210 target (September 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- Jefferies, Buy: $204 target (September 2026). Source: tipranks.com
- UBS, Neutral: $170 target (September 2026). Source: tipranks.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- AeroVironment competes with Anduril — Small drones. Loitering munitions and small autonomous drones — the fastest-growing niche in defense.