AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
Building satellites that connect directly to ordinary phones — no dish, no special hardware — with AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone as partners.
In short: Direct-to-cell satellite broadband network. Category: Space Cellular Broadband Constellation. Sector: Technology, Communication Equipment.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $68.01, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 100% analyst leg $68.01 (4 analyst targets, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + factor model can't price this profile (below its floor) — analyst leg only.
G-Street Score: 37 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 20 of 32
- Margin power: 4 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 8 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 0 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 1 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 4 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 18, 2026
The thesis
- Tier-one carrier partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone validate cellular architecture.
- Substantial standalone wireless spectrum holdings offer defensive asset backing against enterprise value.
- Commercial and government backlog of $1.3B establishes multi-year revenue visibility once operational.
Risks
- Launch cadence delays risk falling well short of initial 45-satellite continuous coverage goals.
- Annual free cash flow burn of -$1.74B creates severe liquidity and dilution pressure.
- Four consecutive quarterly earnings misses highlight mounting operational and deployment cost overruns.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings on November 9, 2026 against $46.0M consensus revenue expectations.
- Updated BlueBird orbital launch timeline following New Glenn launchpad and scheduling delays.
- Price defense at the 52-week low of $39.87 amid ongoing tech space selloff.
Latest
ASTS dropped 8.5% to $40.66, testing new 52-week lows after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral with a reduced $54 target, citing deployment delays with only 18 satellites expected by year-end. Liquidity of $2.29B in cash faces mounting pressure from $2.99B in debt and an annualized free cash flow burn of -$1.74B after Q2 capex expanded to $622M. Wall Street remains deeply divided as Deutsche Bank upgraded shares to Buy with a $93 target, emphasizing underlying wireless spectrum asset value.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $15.8B · revenue growth +2626.6% year over year · gross margin 38.9% · net margin 0.0% · next earnings Nov 9, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Deutsche Bank, Buy: $93 target (October 2026). Source: finbold.com
- Piper Sandler, Neutral: $54 target (October 2026). Source: financialmodelingprep.com
- Scotiabank, Sector Perform: $50.80 target (October 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
- Berenberg, Buy: $92 target (September 2026). Source: www.marketscreener.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- SpaceX supplies AST SpaceMobile — Launch services (about $500M a year). AST’s giant BlueBird satellites ride to orbit on Falcon 9 — even while Starlink competes with them.
- AST SpaceMobile competes with SpaceX — Direct-to-cell. AST’s phone-native broadband races Starlink’s direct-to-cell service for the same spectrum deals.
- AST SpaceMobile supplies Consumers — Direct-to-phone (via carriers) (about $200M a year). AST reaches consumers through AT&T and Verizon — the carriers sell it, the satellites deliver it.
In the Daily Brief
Named in 1 edition on 1 day.
- Sep 2, 2026: After a few rough days, tech caught a bid, and our ASTS long finally went vertical