Apollo (APO)
The desk's stance
On our research list, not on the slate.
What the company does
The most bank-like of the alternatives: Athene’s insurance balance sheet funds a $1T origination machine that lends directly to companies — and the $25B private-credit partnership with Citi shows the banks would rather share the loan than lose it.
In short: Alternative credit and retirement manager. Category: Alternative Asset & Retirement Manager. Sector: Financial Services, Asset Management.
G-Street Value and Score
G-Street Value: $134.32, computed Oct 18, 2026 (confidence: low).
How we got there: 50% analyst leg $134.32 (1 analyst target, credibility- and freshness-weighted, after 8% optimism discount) + 50% GainStreet factor value $254.45 (23.83× fwd EPS anchored to financials multiples) — capped at the analyst leg; factors never out-bull the street — analyst and factor views diverge >50%, confidence reduced. 3 analyst targets have no linked source and are shown but not counted.
G-Street Score: 58 out of 100 (Weak).
- Top-line growth & guidance: 20 of 32
- Margin power: 4 of 15
- Revenue visibility & quality: 5 of 11
- Profitability & balance sheet: 19 of 24
- Capital allocation & governance: 6 of 6
- Valuation, sentiment & momentum: 4 of 12
Our current thesis
Updated Oct 13, 2026
The thesis
- Discounted 11.2x forward P/E trades below banking peers Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
- Athene retirement ecosystem generates vast perpetual capital inflows and highly profitable credit origination.
- Leading private investment-grade credit franchise captures ongoing secular institutional demand for alternative yield.
Risks
- Q2 2026 EPS missed consensus by 2.2%, snapping a multi-quarter streak of earnings beats.
- Athene investment spreads and liability mark-to-market dynamics introduce severe GAAP earnings volatility.
- Alternative asset peer sentiment softened, leaving APO down 17.6% year-to-date against rising banks.
What we're watching
- Q3 2026 earnings scheduled for November 3, 2026, monitoring fee-related earnings and origination volume.
- Technical support at $115 level following recent consolidation off fifty-two-week low of $99.56.
- Athene organic net inflows and private credit deployment spreads amidst changing interest rate conditions.
Latest
APO trades around $119.22 at 11.2x forward P/E, steadying with a 2.8% one-week gain after falling 15.3% over two months and trailing Wall Street peers YTD (-17.6%). Q2 2026 revenue reached $11.15B with $2.88B in quarterly free cash flow, though adjusted EPS of $2.11 missed consensus by 2.2%. Sentiment remains cautious ahead of Q3 2026 earnings on November 3, 2026, as Athene spread dynamics drive GAAP volatility.
Key numbers
As of Oct 16, 2026: market cap $65.4B · revenue growth +63.8% year over year · gross margin 36.1% · net margin 5.3% · forward P/E 10.4 · next earnings Nov 3, 2026.
Analyst price targets
Published analyst targets we could trace to a named source.
- Evercore ISI, Outperform: $146 target (October 2026). Source: marketbeat.com
On the Gainz Lab maps
Who it does business with
- Apollo partners with Citigroup — $25B private-credit pact. Citi sources the borrowers, Apollo and Athene fund the loans — the template for banks and shadow banks splitting the business instead of fighting over it.