Transport

Moving people and food: gig marketplaces, the robot fleets coming for them, and who pockets the fare.

Centered on Uber. The interactive map shows live prices and fundamentals for every public company here; this is the research behind it.

The Human Fleet

The gig workers and merchants who supply the marketplaces today

Drivers & Couriers

Millions of gig workers supplying the cars, bikes, and hours — collecting the majority of every fare and delivery fee, which is exactly why the robot fleet wants their job.

Restaurants & Merchants

The restaurants and grocers whose food fills the bags — paying 15–30% commissions for demand they can no longer live without.

The Robot Fleet

Autonomy players deciding whether drivers — and marketplaces — survive

GOOGL — Alphabet (Waymo)

Waymo runs the only real driverless ride business at scale — and plays both sides: its cars ride on Uber’s app in some cities while taking riders directly in others.

Why it matters: The frenemy at the heart of the Uber thesis: partner where Uber brings demand, competitor where Waymo owns the market.

revenue $400B (research snapshot; the live map shows current data)

TSLA — Tesla

Betting the company on robotaxis: a consumer car fleet that flips into an autonomous ride network, bypassing marketplaces entirely.

Why it matters: The bear case for every gig marketplace: if Tesla’s fleet works, supply stops being something you match — it’s something you own.

market cap $1.43T (research snapshot; the live map shows current data)

The Platforms

Marketplaces matching supply to demand and taking their cut

UBER — Uber

The everything-that-moves marketplace: rides, Eats, and freight across 70 countries — matching millions of drivers to billions of trips and taking ~25-30% of the fare.

Why it matters: The referendum on marketplaces surviving autonomy. If robot fleets plug into Uber, it wins twice — cheaper supply, same demand moat. If they bypass it, the moat was the drivers all along.

Outlook: The AV question defines the stock: management is betting Uber becomes the demand layer for every robot fleet (Waymo partnerships live in Austin and Atlanta) while the market handicaps disintermediation. Meanwhile the core business compounds ~15-20% with real profits.

DASH — DoorDash

The US food-delivery champion (~two-thirds share), expanding into grocery, retail, and international via Wolt — the logistics network Uber Eats couldn’t beat.

market cap $80B (research snapshot; the live map shows current data)

LYFT — Lyft

The perennial #2 in US rideshare — profitable at last, but sub-scale against Uber’s network and first in line to be hurt if robotaxis undercut fares.

market cap $6B (research snapshot; the live map shows current data)

CART — Instacart

Grocery delivery’s specialist: deep supermarket integrations and a high-margin ads business bolted onto the shopping cart.

market cap $11B (research snapshot; the live map shows current data)

The Consumers

Riders and eaters paying for convenience

Riders & Eaters

Urbanites paying for movement and meals — trained by a decade of subsidies to expect a car in 3 minutes and dinner in 30.

Relationships on the map

  • Drivers & Couriers supplies Uber — Gig labor (~$75B/yr)
    Most of every fare passes through to drivers and couriers — the cost line autonomy promises to delete.
  • Drivers & Couriers supplies DoorDash — Dasher labor (~$15B/yr)
    Dashers collect the delivery fees that make up most of DoorDash’s cost of revenue.
  • Drivers & Couriers supplies Lyft — Driver labor (~$10B/yr)
    Lyft’s driver pool overlaps heavily with Uber’s — supply multi-homes, demand decides.
  • Restaurants & Merchants supplies DoorDash — Meals & groceries
    Restaurants supply the food and pay 15–30% commissions for the order flow.
  • Restaurants & Merchants supplies Uber — Restaurant supply (Eats)
    Uber Eats’ merchant base fills the second half of the super-app.
  • Alphabet (Waymo) partners with Uber — Waymo rides on Uber (Austin, Atlanta)
    In partner cities, Waymo cars take Uber trips — the proof-of-concept that robot supply can plug into Uber’s demand layer.
  • Alphabet (Waymo) competes with Uber — Waymo direct (SF, Phoenix, LA)
    In its own cities Waymo takes riders directly — no marketplace, no take rate, and rider satisfaction scores Uber can’t match.
  • Tesla competes with Uber — Robotaxi vs marketplace
    A working Tesla robotaxi network would own its supply outright — the scenario where the marketplace model loses.
  • Tesla competes with Alphabet (Waymo) — AV race
    Vision-only vs lidar-stacked: the two autonomy bets that decide whose robot fleet scales first.
  • Uber competes with Lyft — US rideshare
    A duopoly in name; Uber’s scale advantage compounds through better utilization and pricing.
  • Uber competes with DoorDash — Eats vs DoorDash
    DoorDash won US restaurants; Uber Eats wins internationally and inside the super-app bundle.
  • DoorDash competes with Instacart — Grocery delivery
    DoorDash’s expansion into grocery attacks Instacart’s core.
  • Uber supplies Riders & Eaters — Rides, Eats & freight (~$50B/yr)
    Uber keeps ~$50B of the ~$180B consumers spend through the platform.
  • DoorDash supplies Riders & Eaters — Delivery (~$13B/yr)
    Fees, subscriptions (DashPass), and ads on top of the order flow.
  • Lyft supplies Riders & Eaters — Rides (~$7B/yr)
    US and Canada rides, plus bikes and scooters.
  • Instacart supplies Riders & Eaters — Groceries + ads (~$4B/yr)
    Grocery delivery fees plus a fast-growing retail-media ads business.