Treasury yields finally stepped away from 24-year peaks, just in time for our AppLovin to trip over a courtroom

Evening brief: Treasury yields finally stepped away from 24-year peaks, just in time for our AppLovin to trip over a courtroom

Published Oct 4, 2026, 8:07 PM EDT

Yields Retreat to Open October Rally

Benchmark Treasury yields retreated after briefly touching 24-year peaks, offering equities a reprieve into the weekend even as CNN's Fear & Greed Index lingers at 31. Traders enter Monday watching whether stabilizing interest rates can foster a broader relief bid ahead of third-quarter earnings.

Planet Labs Jumps 8.43% on Launch

Planet Labs surged 8.43% to $17.50 following the successful orbital launch of 20 satellites aboard SpaceX's Transporter-18, including a high-profile Project Suncatcher prototype hosting Google TPU AI chips. The successful deployment validates orbital edge compute progress, but sustaining momentum requires converting technology demonstrations into tangible recurring enterprise revenue.

AAOI Rallies 7.71% as AI Optics Surge

Applied Optoelectronics gained 7.71% to $115.59, extending its weekly advance to 19.39% as strong demand for 800G optical transceivers and data-center hardware continues lifting optical networking suppliers. While hyperscaler buildout orders provide exceptional top-line tailwinds, persistent unprofitability and capacity constraints through mid-2027 keep execution risk elevated.

AppLovin Drops 4.65% on Legal Setback

AppLovin sank 4.65% to $268.22 after a federal court denied its temporary restraining order request against Unity in an ad-data dispute, compounding pressure from widening shareholder class actions. The legal blow threatens near-term sentiment around its Axon platform monetization, putting immediate focus on whether $265 support can hold.

PepsiCo Earnings Kick Off Q3 Gauntlet

PepsiCo reports on Thursday, October 8, marking the initial bellwether for corporate margins and consumer pricing power before major money-center banks kick off Q3 earnings next week. With sentiment pinned in Fear territory at 31, volume trends and full-year guidance will dictate whether broader market stabilization takes hold.

Posture: With Fear at 31 despite easing yields, we adopt a Defensive posture, selectively accumulating quality ahead of the Q3 earnings gauntlet.

Tickers in focus: APP, QQQ

Upcoming earnings

• PEP — 2026-10-08, Before Market Open
• C — 2026-10-13, TBD
• GS — 2026-10-13, Before Market Open
• JNJ — 2026-10-13, TBD
• JPM — 2026-10-13, TBD
• UNH — 2026-10-13, Before Market Open

The day's lineup changes

• Oct 4, 2026 · AVGO — Stage change Holding → Buy Zone @ $355
  Custom AI XPUs surging with an eye-popping $179B backlog; trading at just 18.3x forward earnings makes this an urgent add.
• Oct 4, 2026 · AMZN — Stage change Holding → Buy Zone @ $252
  AWS re-accelerated to 37% with a colossal $496B backlog; at 20x P/E, this cash-generative cloud titan is in prime buy territory.