Crude spiked on Hormuz drama to rattle the tape, while we hold our breath for Micron's high-stakes AI print
← Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Archive
Morning brief: Crude spiked on Hormuz drama to rattle the tape, while we hold our breath for Micron's high-stakes AI print
Published
Strait of Hormuz Impasse Roils Futures
Stock futures drifted lower while crude oil spiked over 3% after President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. With the Fear & Greed Index lingering at 37, renewed energy supply fears and sticky inflation concerns threaten to stall Wall Street's recent tech momentum.
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Zscaler Sinks 10.1% on CRO Departure
Zscaler plunged -10.06% after confirming that its chief revenue officer is stepping down ahead of a planned leadership handover on October 1. While underlying AI security bookings and deal pipelines continue to expand rapidly, investors are penalizing the sudden C-suite transition and factoring in potential near-term enterprise sales friction.
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Bloom Energy Surges 8.3% on Backlog Run
Bloom Energy surged 8.27% as fresh market analysis spotlighted its massive $20 billion commercial backlog and ongoing plans to double factory capacity to two gigawatts. S&P 500 benchmark inclusion continues to funnel persistent passive inflows, though the valuation now leaves virtually zero margin for execution missteps.
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Microsoft Gains 3.7% on Copilot Launch
Microsoft rose 3.66% following the unveiling of its next-generation Copilot workspace featuring Home, Code, Autopilot, and new usage-based monetization for autonomous agents. This transition from basic seat licenses to consumption-based billing across enterprise workflows could significantly accelerate monetization if customer adoption mirrors robust preview demand.
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Micron Q4 Print Tests AI Memory Setup
Micron Technology steps into the earnings spotlight on Wednesday, September 30, with Wall Street bracing for $32.32 in EPS on over $52 billion in revenue. Investors need to watch high-bandwidth memory margins and contracted AI revenue closely to confirm whether the broader semiconductor capex boom remains intact.
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Posture: Defensive posture: Fear sentiment at 37 and a 5.17% 10-year yield warrant disciplined risk management ahead of PCE and payrolls.
Tickers in focus: MU, SPY
Upcoming earnings
The day's moves on the ledger
Every entry below is public and permanent.
- Sep 28, 2026 · ORCL — Sold @ $137 +8.5% (cut)
We are exiting Oracle to reduce funding-dependent AI build-out exposure, not because a valuation target was reached. For the quarter ended August 31, 2026, the issuer reported revenue up 30% to $19.3 billion, remaining performance obligations of $664 billion, record operating cash flow of $23 billion, free cash flow of negative $5 billion after $28.5 billion of capital expenditures, and $20 billion of common stock sold through an at-the-market program; it guides fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings of $8.10 per share. The growth is real, but capital needs, debt and equity funding absorb the benefits for shareholders, and we prefer an empty slot to this exposure while rates and funding conditions stay tight. Using the September 25 close of $137.10, the position is about 8% above our $126.41 entry. Unconfirmed reports about Project Jupiter financing are not the basis for this decision. - Sep 28, 2026 · NVDA — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $225
Using the September 25 close of $225.07, Nvidia is about 6% above our $211.80 entry. For the quarter ended July 26, 2026, the issuer reported revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% from the prior quarter and 106% from a year ago, a 75% gross margin, and non-GAAP earnings of $2.22 per share. Our system G-Street Value of $350.35 depends on four analyst targets we have not opened, and the earnings period behind the displayed forward multiple is not documented, so we no longer present this as a buy-zone add. We keep the position; a new-purchase case needs a dated earnings bridge and verified targets. Export policy and customers' capital spending remain the main risks. - Sep 28, 2026 · ORCL — Stage change Hold → — @ $137
We are exiting Oracle to reduce funding-dependent AI build-out exposure, not because a valuation target was reached. For the quarter ended August 31, 2026, the issuer reported revenue up 30% to $19.3 billion, remaining performance obligations of $664 billion, record operating cash flow of $23 billion, free cash flow of negative $5 billion after $28.5 billion of capital expenditures, and $20 billion of common stock sold through an at-the-market program; it guides fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings of $8.10 per share. The growth is real, but capital needs, debt and equity funding absorb the benefits for shareholders, and we prefer an empty slot to this exposure while rates and funding conditions stay tight. Using the September 25 close of $137.10, the position is about 8% above our $126.41 entry. Unconfirmed reports about Project Jupiter financing are not the basis for this decision. - Sep 28, 2026 · AVGO — Stage change Buy Zone → Hold @ $353
Using the September 25 close of $352.81, Broadcom is about 9% below our $389.11 entry. For the quarter ended August 2, 2026, the issuer reported revenue of $29.6 billion, up 86% from a year ago, free cash flow of $13.7 billion, and non-GAAP earnings of $3.32 per share, and guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $34.8 billion, of which about $21.7 billion is AI semiconductor revenue. Current cash generation supports retention. All five analyst targets behind our system G-Street Value of $478.23 are model-supplied and unverified, and trading below our entry is not itself evidence of value, so we no longer present this as a buy-zone add. Concentrated customer programs and their financing remain the main risks.